Weather this week will mostly be governed by the presence of high pressure, with the exception of a cold front sweeping through Tuesday night into Wednesday that could bring some showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm in the upper-80s and low-90s during this time. July 4th festivities look to be safe from any rain at this time.
Rest of today – sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Tuesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s, close to 90°F. Chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the north. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Wednesday – high pressure starts building again with mostly sunny skies expected. High temperatures in the upper-80s with overnight lows in the low-70s.
Climate Prediction Center forecast for temperature trends between Jul 6-10, showing possibility for above average warmth to continue into the weekend.
Thursday (Independence Day) – another day of slightly above average warmth with high temperatures forecast in the upper-80s. Increasing clouds due to the approach of a weakening warm front from the southwest. Overnight lows in the low-70s, rain should hold off for fireworks viewing.
We start the weekend with hot temperatures but some showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday should cool things off back to near-normal warmth. In general, there’s going to be enough sun this weekend to enjoy some outdoor activities. Just be prepared for a quick moving afternoon thunderstorm. Saturday’s storms could edge into the severe range.
Rest of today – hot, sunny, with high temperatures ranging in the upper-80s to low-90s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing slight risk for severe thunderstorms in NYC
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday
Saturday – partly sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and early evening hours when solar heating is maximized and a cold front/shortwave trough moves through the area. There is some potential for the storms to reach severe limits, with the primary threat being damaging winds. High temperatures near 90°F, with overnight lows in the low-70s.
Sunday – cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-80s but mostly sunny skies. There’s also a chance for showers and thunderstorms with a second cold front pushing through during the day, but coverage will be more scattered and storms are expected to be weaker if they form due to lack of upper-air support and less favorable conditions for instability. Overnight lows noticeably cooler, in the mid-60s.
GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, precipitation for 8AM Monday
Monday – a gem of a day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows back into the upper-60s.
Earlier showers and thunderstorms today presage the passage of a warm front over the area. Behind this, high pressure begins to build tomorrow and persists through the end of the week. Temperatures during this stretch are likely to consistently reach into the upper-80s and low-90s in the city. As if on cue, the first full week of summer this year may also see a possible heat wave.
Rest of today – clouds gradually diminishing towards the evening. A few scattered showers still possible with a cold front forecast to move through later. High temperatures in the low-80s with cloud cover in place. Overnight lows will be mild in the low-70s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Wednesday – relatively warm start to the day allows temperatures to climb into the low-90s in the city with the urban heat island effect. Mostly sunny skies with high pressure now in control. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
Thursday – high temperatures again into the low-90s with lots of sun. Luckily, the position of this particular high pressure doesn’t translate to the influx of a humid airmass, so the overall feel of these temperatures won’t be as muggy. Overnight lows in the low-70s.
GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Thursday. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures can be a good indicator of hot surface temperatures.
Friday – yet another day of 90°F+ temperatures possible, which would mean an official heatwave. Still mostly sunny with high pressure remaining in control over sensible weather. Overnight lows continuing to be mild, in the mid-70s. Great beach weather!
Lingering showers and cloudiness should clear the area later today. Summer officially starts today and a welcome pattern change will coincide with this, giving us excellent weather this weekend. A break from the rain with lots of sunshine is in store. Upper level ridging should block any inclement weather from hitting until a weak storm system passing late Monday into Tuesday.
Rest of today – skies gradually clearing by late afternoon. High temperatures moderated by cloud cover, rising to the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s. Air mass will be drying out behind a cold front passing today.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday
Saturday – sunny with highs in the low-80s. High pressure building over Ontario and Canada should keep things nice and calm. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Sunday – another sunny day with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
GFS model output of 500 mb heights and vertical vorticity valid for 8PM Monday
Monday – mostly sunny with increasing clouds late and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with chances for rain.
A slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary lingering across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast will bring multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. As multiple waves of low pressure travel along this boundary, we’ll see several rounds of rain spread across multiple days, pretty much until the end of the week. During this stretch, because of the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will range slightly below average in the upper-70s.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with rain arriving later in the day. HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) simulated radar suggests the onset time of the first round of rain sometime between 5-7PM. This first round of rain isn’t expected to last too long. Overnight, around 1AM, we could see more substantial rain. Temperatures during the day peaking in the upper-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 5:30PM
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 1AM Tuesday
Tuesday – high temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies again. Rain chances more likely in the morning. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Wednesday – chance for showers and thunderstorms continues, with high temperatures in the mid-70s and overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Thursday – yet more chances for rain and cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid-70s, and overnight lows again in the mid-60s.
A cold front that pushed through overnight leaves us with some cool, crisp air to start the weekend. The first half of the weekend will be characterized by plenty of sun before a slow moving frontal system approaches later in the weekend. This will bring back chances for showers and thunderstorms going into next week when it appears an active weather pattern could take root.
Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. A post-frontal trough may touch off a few isolated storms later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday, showing high pressure off the coast of NC
Saturday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. High pressure takes hold off the Southeast US coast, with clockwise return flow bringing some warmer air this way. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Sunday – with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, clouds increase and chances for showers and thunderstorms do also. High temperatures should still be mild in the low-80s. As the Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances continuing.
NAM output of 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure and precipitation for 8PM Sunday.
Monday – the frontal boundary that approaches from the northwest weakens and stalls out. This is partly due to flow at the upper levels flattening out/becoming somewhat parallel to the front’s orientation, and partly due to the high pressure that by this time will become anchored over Bermuda. Multiple waves of low pressure are forecast to move along this stalled front bringing another day that holds chances for showers and thunderstorms. Prolonged southwest/westerly flow ahead of the cold front which really slows down should allow temperatures to reach the mid-80s despite more cloud cover and precipitation. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with yet more rain possible.
After a rainy start to the week, high pressure takes over during the mid-week period. Another storm system moves in Thursday. Behind this next bout of rain, a dry and mostly sunny weekend should await us.
Rest of today – skies clearing as a cold front pushing. Winds picking up with some subsidence (sinking air, since air mass behind the cold front is cooler and drier). High temperatures reaching into the upper-70s with this subsidence and some downsloping from the northwest. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Wednesday – high pressure remains firmly rooted over the area. High temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Thursday – a developing low closer to the coast and another one further inland over the Great Lakes will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. First, like Monday, a warm front will lift through earlier in the day, then a cold front is expected to follow later on. High temperatures in the low-70s due to rain and cloud cover. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.
NAM model for 1000-500 mb thickness and surface reflectivity at 8AM Thursday, showing a distinct area of rain associated to a low emerging off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula
Friday – with a cool start, temperatures top out in the mid-70s. Mostly sunny in the wake of the cold front Thursday. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
High pressure will build over southwestern Quebec this weekend, and this will be the predominant influence on sensible weather in the area. This should result in the first rain-free weekend in quite a while, so get out and enjoy it if you can. By the beginning of next week, rain comes back into the picture. Temperatures through the period will be at or slightly above average in the upper-70s.
Rest of today – filtered sun through a deck of higher clouds appears to be on the order of the day with a cold front stalling out and becoming stationary to our south. No rain though! High temperatures around 80°F. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. That big area of high pressure over Quebec will be bringing us some sunny skies for a change.
Saturday – this will be the best day of the weekend with sunny skies as high be pressure builds north and high temperatures staying in the low-80s. Overnight lows again in the mid-60s.
Sunday – still a good day for being outside with more clouds expected and becoming mostly cloudy late. High temperatures in the upper-70s with overnight lows in the low-60s.
NAM output for 2PM Monday, by this time, it appears that a cold front bringing showers along with it will be nearing the area.
Monday – the next storm system comes through with a cold front forecast to pass Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances look to be sometime in the afternoon at this point. High temperature in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the low-60s.
This week starts off right around average for this time of year, with pleasant, sunny conditions. High pressure remains in control for a good part of the week and temperatures start creeping up as the high pressure continues moving east and offshore. Clockwise flow around this exiting high pressure from the southwest and west will help warm temperatures up before the next chance for rain comes in Wednesday and Thursday.
Rest of today – clear skies with high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday
Tuesday – high pressure still in control, temperatures again in the low-70s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows warming up into the low-60s.
Wednesday – the high pressure center will be southeast of us and a warm front will push through. This should allow temperatures to reach into the low-80s with partly sunny skies. We could see an afternoon shower or thunderstorm as a result of increased instability. Overnight, a prefrontal trough and cold front is forecast to push through and lead to more chances for showers and thunderstorms with low temperatures in the mid-60s.
Pivotal Weather rendering of GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation, 2AM Thursday
Thursday – partly sunny skies again with continuing chances for shower and thunderstorms later in the day. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
During my time taking classes as part of Penn State University’s Undergraduate Certificate in Weather Forecasting, we were taught that understanding the climatology of the location you are interested in is an important prerequisite for making accurate forecasts. This post continues on this theme, adding a climatology for June.
City Name / Station ID: New York, NY (LaGuardia Airport – KLGA)
Local Geography and Topography
Station Elevation: 10 feet above sea level.
Station Location: LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) is situated on the north shore of Queens along the East River, approximately 6 miles east-northeast of Midtown Manhattan.
KLGA’s location within the broader NYC area, as seen in a Google Maps terrain view
Important Topographical Features: New York City is located in the extreme southeastern corner of New York State, bordering suburban New Jersey and Connecticut. These suburban regions combined with those in Long Island comprise the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area, which is the most populous urban agglomeration in the United States and one of the populous urbanized areas in the world with an estimated population of 18 million. New York City itself sprawls across the coastal plain around the Hudson River estuary. The terminal moraine formed by glaciers of the last Ice Age result in a ridge of higher terrain that cuts a swath from southwest to northeast across the boroughs from northern Staten Island, northern Brooklyn, southwestern through central and northeastern Queens. Otherwise, the city itself is low lying. This ridge varies in height between 200-400 feet, rising sharply from south to north, but tapering more gently north. North and west of the city (about 30-50 miles away), lie significant elevations of the Catskills (north), Poconos (west), Taconics that are part of the broader Appalachian Mountain Range. The elevations of the lower foothills can range from 1000-1500 feet. Some of the elevations in the Poconos and Catskills, west and north of KLGA respectively, peak between 2000-3000 feet. The open expanse of the Atlantic Ocean lies south of KLGA and New York City. Long Island Sound also lies east-northeast. The vast urbanized area of the NYC metropolitan region has significant effects on local microclimates via differential heating (urban heat island effect). KLGA is in a low-lying area sensitive to UHI effects and marine influences.
On winter mornings, ocean temperatures which are warm relative to the land reinforce the effect of the city heat island and low temperatures are often 10-20 degrees lower in the inland suburbs than in the central city. The relatively warm water temperatures also delay the advent of winter snows. Conversely, the lag in warming of water temperatures keeps spring temperatures relatively cool. One year-round measure of the ocean influence is the small average daily variation in temperature.
National Weather Service – NYC Office
Wind Patterns
Below is a wind rose – you can read more about how to interpret this chart here.
Frequency (percentage) of the single most common wind direction: Due south (13.5%).
Directions that are most and least common: Most common wind directions include due northwest (9.5%), due northeast (9.25%), and due southwest (just below 9%). Least common wind directions are east-southeast (1%), due east (1.5%), and due southeast (2.5%).
Direction(s) most likely to produce the fastest winds: Winds of 16.5-21.4 knots are most frequently found coming from due northwest, north-northwest, and due south.
Direction(s) least likely to produce the fastest winds: As is the case with several other spring months, the least common wind directions of due east, east-southeast, and due southeast also rarely seen winds in excess of 16.4 knots.
Impacts of wind direction on local weather: Wind patterns in June present a similar pattern to those in May, but with a notable increase in the frequency of winds from the southwestern quadrant, and a decrease in winds from the northeastern quadrant. This could be a reflection of shifting storm patterns, with coastal storms and backdoor cold fronts from the northeast becoming less common while more mid-latitude lows track inland north of the area, bringing more southerly warm sector flow. Persistent Bermuda highs can sometimes also develop in June over the western North Atlantic. The clockwise flow around these high pressure centers would result in more southerly and southwesterly winds. During this time of year, southwesterly winds should generally advect warmer, more humid air from the Southeastern US into the region. When this pattern becomes persistent, it can cause oppressive heat waves. Meanwhile, southerly winds (along with easterly and some northeasterly winds) would bring cooler, and more stable marine air, sometimes in the form of sea breezes. In the wake of passing cold fronts associated with mid-latitude storms, northwesterly and northerly winds, though decreasing in frequency compared to May, should still be effective at transporting cooler, drier Canadian (continential Arctic) airmasses into the area.
Maximum observed two-minute wind speed for the month: 36 (41 mph)
Temperature and Precipitation Averages/Records
Temperature units are in Fahrenheit and precipitation is in inches.
Worth Noting June is the first month of summer, and not surprisingly is also the first month of the season where record highs have exceeded 100ºF.
