Category Archives: Rain

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 15, 2014

January 15, 2015NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcoastal low, cold front, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, pressure gradient, warm front, weather, weekend weather, wxLei Zhao

We end this week off with a windy day Friday, followed by an intrusion of cold air on Saturday before a warmup Sunday that should be accompanied by some rain during the day, then possibly a mix of rain and snow Sunday night. Some chance of snow persists into early Monday.

Friday – a cold front dropping from Canada will tighten the pressure gradient ahead of it, bringing with it breezy west-northwest winds between 15-25mph during the day tomorrow. High temperatures will be about normal in the upper 30s, but with wind chill values only in the 20s.

Saturday – subsequent to the passage of that cold front, we get another shot of cold, arctic air, with temperatures on Saturday struggling to even reach 30 in the city, and only in the 20s elsewhere.

Sunday – a low pressure system will be moving steadily northeast into Quebec by Sunday. This storm system will have a trailing cold front as well as a preceding warm front. We should enter the warm sector behind the warm front passing over us Sunday. This will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid-40s (possibly higher in a few spots). There will be a transfer of energy to a secondary low pressure center which is forecast to form off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in the chance for us to get a few periods of moderate-heavy rain on Sunday, especially in the afternoon hours. As the coastal low moves off to the northeast, rain should taper down during the overnight hours into Monday, and temperatures will be cold enough to support a chance of rain/snow mix.

Monday – snow showers should end early Monday. High temperatures will be about average for this time of year, in the upper 30s.

NYC Weather Update – Jan 12, 2015

January 12, 2015NYC, Rain, Weather Updatearctic high, cold front, high pressure, nyc weather, nyc weather forecast, nyc wx, weather, wxLei Zhao

We start this week with a mixed bag of precipitation, currently rain, but eventually back to a wintry mix before ending. The rest of the week will be dry, with colder days on tap for the mid-week period before another warming trend to end things off.

Tuesday – once the storm system that’s responsible for today’s rain and mixed precipitation moves away, a cold front will usher in a strong area of high pressure that will dominate our weather for the mid-week period. This high pressure area will allow cold Canadian air to flow into the area from the north. High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark, while a steady north wind will ensure wind chills in the teens.

Wednesday – will be similar to Tuesday in terms of sensible weather with highs in the low 30s, and partly sunny skies.

Thursday – another partly sunny day, but with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid-upper 30s, near normal.

Friday – should be essentially the same as Thursday with highs again in the mid-upper 30s. Doesn’t look like we’ll get any chance for precipitation throughout the end of the week and weekend.

NYC Christmas Weather Update – Dec 24, 2014

December 24, 2014NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendchristmas weather, cold front, gfs, holiday weather, nam, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, warm front, xmas, xmas wx, xmas wx nycLei Zhao

A foggy start to the busy travel day for many will feature periods of locally heavy rain and gusty winds later this morning into the early afternoon. Near record warmth with high temperatures in the low 60s today will give way to cooler but calmer weather going into the holiday weekend before another round of unsettled weather early-mid next week.

Today – foggy conditions will be a prelude to a stormy Christmas Eve. An approaching warm front will move through shortly and allow for a surge of warm air to raise temperatures into the low 60s. Along with this, there looks to be a period of widespread showers in the late morning and early afternoon hours. Afterwards, there should be a lull in the rain before a second round of showers and possibly scattered thunderstorms associated with this storm system’s trailing cold front moves in. Winds will pick up ahead of and then behind this cold front. If you are traveling either by air or car, the latter part of the day could see some weather related disruptions and delays. Overnight lows will be very mild near 50.

NAM model stimulated radar image for 2PM EST, 12/24/2014

Christmas Day – conditions improve dramatically during the day in the wake of the cold front. Any lingering showers should end early in the morning with rapidly clearing skies accompanied by a gusty west wind. High temperatures in the mid-50s will actually be set early in the morning with temperatures dropping steadily during the day to the upper 40s later in the afternoon.

Friday – fair weather continues as an area of high pressure builds over the Eastern US. Partly cloudy with a mild high near 50.

Saturday – much the same as Friday with high pressure still in control. High again near 50.

Sunday – mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, slightly cooler with highs in the mid-40s. A frontal boundary may stall just south of us, setting up conditions for an extended period of unsettled weather next week.

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Dec 19, 2014

December 19, 2014NYC, Precipitation Type, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendchristmas weather, high pressure, low pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, storms, weather, weekend weather, white christmas, wxLei Zhao

This weekend will feature about normal temperatures for mid-December, with a small chance of rain/snow on Sunday. Relatively quiet weather during the weekend will give way to an active weather pattern for the first half of next week, with a robust storm system arriving Christmas Eve (all rain, sadly, so no white Christmas for us here in NYC).

Saturday – high pressure currently in control of the weather will erode as it moves east. Clouds cover will increase with high temperatures around 40.

Sunday – easterly winds off the ocean in the wake of high pressure centered over Atlantic Canada will bring some slight chance for precipitation. The lower atmosphere is fairly dry, and is not primed with moisture for precipitation. If precipitation does materialize, temperature profiles are low enough that some snow flakes could be seen, but the overall impact will be negligible. High temperatures will be in the low 40s with cloudy skies.

Monday – a significant storm system will be approaching our region from the Central Plains. Forecast models point to a primary low pressure center over the interior of the country while a secondary low forms along the coast. Ahead of this storm system, some scattered showers could pass over the area Monday. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy day with high temperatures in the mid-40s.

Tuesday – coverage of precipitation will increase on Tuesday as that secondary low pressure center draws closer to the area. Warmer, marine air will be in place before a warm front passes over. This should ensure that temperature profiles remain warm enough to preclude the possibility of snow. Temperatures may rise to as high as the 50 degree mark Tuesday.

This early-mid week storm will cause some travel headaches for Christmas, but fortunately, it does appear the majority of precipitation will be in the form of rain.

NYC Weekend Weather & West Coast Storm – Dec 2, 2014

December 4, 2014Climate, Cool Images, Drought, Flooding, Noreaster, NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekend, Western UScalifornia drought, california storm, climate, drought, flooding, heavy rain, meteorology, nyc weather, nyc wx, pac energy, pacific storm, rain, weather, west coastLei Zhao

It’s been a up and down week for weather in NYC, with Monday starting out in the mid-60s, then a colder mid-week that featured some mixed precipitation and rain. The end of this week will feature rain and slightly warmer temperatures by Saturday, then a return to colder conditions Sunday into next week. I’m also going to point out some of the spectacular weather brought on by a huge Pacific storm that hit California this week.

Thursday – the remainder of today will be pleasant and sunny, though cold with high temps only in the low 40s.

Friday – clouds will begin to build overnight tonight ahead of the a storm system moving in from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. There is a small chance for scattered showers, otherwise expecting a cloudy day with highs in the mid-40s.

Saturday – rain should overspread the area by Friday night into Saturday. This storm system will be drawing on energy and moisture from the Pacific storm that slammed California earlier this week (discussed below). Combined with influx of Gulf moisture, this setup favors a moderate to at times heavy rain event for Saturday. Temperatures will rise steadily ahead of this storm system as it pushes warm air up. High temperatures Saturday should reach into the mid-50s despite rain and clouds.

gfs_namer_042_1000_850_thick — GFS model output for overnight Friday into Saturday

Sunday – rain should end overnight Saturday, and high pressure from Canada should quickly build in behind this storm system. The positioning of this high pressure, along with the exiting low, will make for a tight pressure gradient, which should allow for stiff northwest winds perhaps in the 15-25mph range. Temperatures will drop back into the low 40s with the arrival the colder Canadian air.

gfs_namer_084_1000_850_thick — GFS model output for Sunday night

Monday – the storm system from Saturday will move offshore, but it appears from model runs that there’s some chance the storm lingers. As the high pressure from Sunday moves off to the northeast, the clockwise flow behind it may draw this offshore area of low pressure back into the area. This could lead to some rain on Monday. It’ll be a mostly cloudy day otherwise with highs in the low 40s.

Pacific Storm Slams California

Earlier this week, California got slammed by a very strong Pacific low. This storm brought on furious rains that dropped 1″+ in many areas of Northern California, with totals as high as 3-4″ in spots near the Coast Range and Sierra, as well as further south in the mountains east of San Diego. These totals represent more rainfall than had fallen in many of these areas all of last year.

You can see from the map below which overlays drought conditions (the deeper the red, the more extreme the drought, with the darkest red representing extreme/record-breaking drought) with rainfall totals from yesterday. You’ll see that much of the heaviest rain did fall over regions worst affected by drought. Sadly, though this is a case of too much of a good thing, as much of this desperately needed rainfall occurred so quickly, it will simply runoff back into the ocean.

Screen Shot 2014-12-04 at 12.08.35 PM — Map of California with drought condition layer (reds/oranges), and rainfall totals from yesterday

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 20, 2014

November 20, 2014NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, mid-latitude cyclone, new york city weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, occluded front, thanksgiving nyc weather, thanksgiving weather, warm front, warm sector, weather, weekend weather, wxLei Zhao

We got a break from the arctic chill briefly today, but temperatures will fall again for Friday as a cold front currently sitting on top of us passes through. High pressure builds in Friday allowing for sunny conditions, but temperatures will still not be that warm. A big warm up is in store for the second half of the weekend and we could be hitting a rainy low-mid 60s by Monday.

Friday – following the passage of a cold front sitting over us now, skies will clear up overnight tonight and allow for excellent radiational cooling, so low temperatures will be generally in the upper 20s in the city. High pressure works its way in Friday, but with the influence of a cool west wind, the high temperature will probably still only be near 40.

Saturday – another nice day, with plenty of sun, and temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-40s, but the big warm up won’t occur until Sunday.

Sunday – a low pressure center with its origins over the Texas Panhandle will be moving northeast towards our area. A warm front will rotate around in front of it, allowing for the influx of a comparatively very warm and moist airmass into the area. The chance of rain will increase steadily along with cloud cover throughout the day Sunday such that by the late evening, showers will be likely. High temperatures should be in the mid-50s.

gfs_namer_081_1000_850_thick — Significant warm up ahead for the latter half of the weekend going into early next week

Monday – as the forecast map from the Weather Prediction Center below shows, the low pressure system from the map above is forecast to intensify significantly as it pulls northeast. This is a classic, mature mid-latitude cyclone with an occluded low and front (purple line extending from the center of the low), a cold front, and a warm front. The warm front will rotate through first, allowing us to get into the warm sector, where there will be plenty of energy and moisture for rain, which could occur in periods throughout Monday. High temperatures will be balmy in the mid-60s.

Thanksgiving Storm?

The chance of a significant Thanksgiving storm is decreasing, though not completely nil. Once the cold front above passes, we’ll see a return to cooler temperatures in the low 50s. It’s worth mentioning that the set up behind the cold should once again favor lake effect snow, so if you’re traveling to any of the usual snow belt areas around the Great Lakes, be prepared.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 17, 2014

November 17, 2014Climate, NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Updatearctic air, cold, cold front, cold spell, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, warm front, weather, wind chill, winterLei Zhao

The main headline for weather this week will be bitterly cold temperatures that are highly abnormal (in fact, possibly record setting) for this time of the year. We’re talking lows on Wednesday morning in the low 20s in the city, teens and even single digits north and west, and wind chill values in the single digits with a stiff west wind. The cold air finally breaks this weekend, though, with the arrival of a storm system that will push warm air in from the southwest.

Tuesday – high temperatures tomorrow will only be in the mid-30s under sunny skies following the passage of a cold front that’s currently right at our doorstep. Behind this front, breezy west winds between 20-25mph will pick up with wind gusts as high as 35mph. That will translate to wind chill values in the 20s for most of the day tomorrow.

Wednesday – we could break some records for lowest maximum and minimum temperatures Wednesday. Lows overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning may only be in the low 20s, and with a west wind still kicking around 20mph, wind chill values will be in the low teens by daybreak. Temperatures won’t rebound much during the day either, with a high temperature forecast to be barely at the freezing mark.

Thursday – temperatures should rebound considerably with the passage of a warm front late Wednesday and prior to another cold front passing later Thursday. High temperatures should reach the mid-40s. This front will be moisture-starved, so we’re not anticipating any precipitation.

Friday – temperatures will slide back into the upper 30s and low 40s after the cold front.

Warmup this Weekend

We finally snap this bitter cold spell with an influx of warm air from the Gulf streaming ahead of a storm system that will move in next Monday. This weekend should feature gradually warming temperatures, and by next Monday we could hit 60 briefly.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 14, 2014

November 14, 2014Noreaster, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold, fall, new york city weather, noreasters, nyc, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc weekend wx, nyc wx, rain, snow, weekend weather, winter, winter weatherLei Zhao

You can feel the chill in the air now. This cold will continue Saturday, but we’ll get a slight warmup Sunday and Monday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the southwest. Behind that low pressure system, we get a reinforcing blast of arctic air that will be entrenched through the rest of next week. I’m also monitoring the potential for a Nor’easter just in time for the busy travel day Wednesday and through Thanksgiving.

Saturday – a cold day on tap despite ample sunshine. High temperatures will be generally in the lower 40s. There’ll be a noticeable northwest wind making it feel like it’s in the 30s.

Sunday – a milder day with warm air flowing in ahead of a low pressure system, but by warm, I mean highs only around 50. Clouds will increase throughout the day and there could be some rain Sunday night.

Monday – rain will be falling for the majority of the day, with highs in the city in the mid-40s. Monday night gets interesting with the potential for a rain/snow mix in the city, and all snow in interior regions north and west. Depending on the timing of the main slug of precipitation with this system, we could actually get some accumulating snow in the city also (the later in the night the main body of precipitation falls, the colder it will be, and the better the conditions for snow).Tuesday – cold air rushes back in behind this storm on Monday and we drop back into high temperatures hovering in the low 40s.

Potential Thanksgiving Nor’easter?

In looking ahead at the long-term GFS model output, I’m noting the possibility for a possible high-impact Nor’easter that would be timed to coincide with the busiest travel day right before and then during Thanksgiving. Of course, this far out, there’s still considerable uncertainty to the forecast, so this scenario could not pan out, or the storm track could be nowhere close to where it needs to be to produce a high-impact Nor’easter. Still, it’s worth watching, as it could be a major headache for folks if it does materialize.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 11, 2014

November 11, 2014Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Update, Weekendarctic air, arctic oscillation, climate, cold, cold weather, fall, new york weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, winterLei Zhao

I hope you all took advantage of this gift of incredibly warm weather that coincided with a federal holiday, because that’s going the be the last gasp of mild weather for at least the next 7-10 days. As you probably heard, we are going to get walloped by an arctic airmass the latter half of the week that will bring an abrupt end to fall temperatures and make it feel like we jumped straight into winter – I’m talking high temperatures that won’t even get out of the low 40s by week’s end. Before you ask, no this is not a polar vortex – it will be damn cold nonetheless.

Wednesday – this will be the last day we get above 60 degrees for quite a while. We are currently in a warm sector in between a warm front that pushed through earlier this week and ahead of a cold front that will be open the door to an arctic airmass swinging down from Canada. High temperatures in the Central Plains and Intermountain West where this airmass has already taken hold are ranging from the teens to the 30s. But Wednesday, we’ll still be in the mid-60s, although it won’t be as pleasant as today with a foggy and cloudy start to the day. Once the cold front below passes, clouds should clear quickly and lead to excellent conditions for radiational cooling, with low temperatures dropping into the low 40s and into the 30s in the interior areas north and west.
Thursday – it won’t be that cold just yet, with high temperatures still expected to hit the low 50s. But clouds will again increase ahead of a second, quick-moving storm system that is expected to pass through Thursday night into Friday. This will be the real arctic sledgehammer that brings seriously cold air into the region. There will be enough energy and moisture in the atmosphere for the possibility of rain/snow mix on Thursday night and even all snow in the city Friday morning.

Friday – skies should clear quickly during the day Friday, but despite all the sun, temperatures will struggle to hit the mid-40s. Arctic air will be firmly entrenched from this point on until as long as Thanksgiving!

Saturday – High pressure will be in control Saturday, high temperatures will have a difficult time hitting 40 though, because the setup of the high will favor northerly winds. Sunday – yet another storm system brings us the chance for some precipitation. Behind that system – you guessed it, more cold air and temperatures that will be two standard deviations below normal for this time of year, as per our local forecast office.

For those of you who are interested in the long-term outlook, based on forecast models and the arctic oscillation index forecast, it looks like this blast of cold air will be sticking around with us for at least the next 7-10 days, and may not break until Thanksgiving. The Arctic Oscillation measures the climate pattern of winds circulating at high latitudes close to the arctic. When it is in it’s negative phase (as is about to be the case, on the right end of all the charts below), higher pressure tends to dominate over the arctic while lower than normal pressure occurs in mid-latitudes (i.e. our area). Air tends to flow from areas of high pressure towards areas of low pressure, so this pattern sets up favorable conditions for the intrusion of bitterly cold air into our region.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 4, 2014

November 4, 2014NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Updatecoastal storm, cold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, rain, rain storm, storm, warm front, weather, wxLei Zhao

Election Day features temperatures much above normal for this time of year, with high temperatures in the mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. Wednesday continues the warm trend but with increasing clouds. We’ll see another stormy end to the week before conditions improve this weekend.

Tuesday – the remainder of the day will feature high temperatures in the mid-60s reminiscent of early October and not November. This is all thanks to a warm front that passed through (you can see this in the diagram below for Wednesday, up and to the right of NYC demarcated by the red line). Go out and enjoy this while you can, and don’t forget to vote!

Wednesday – we’ll see an even warmer day despite the increase in cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwesterly flow will allow warm, tropical air to surge into the area from the Gulf. This plume of warmth and moisture will also prime the atmosphere ahead of Thursday’s storm. The cold front itself will weaken as it passes, so we’re not anticipating any rainfall. High temperatures will be generally in the upper 60s.

Thursday – a storm system with its origins in the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area will form a secondary low near the offshore waters of the Northeast. Despite being only 2 days out, there’s still some uncertainty to the ultimate track of this storm system. The general pattern will be somewhat similar to last week, with the coastal storm forming and then slowly making its way northeast. The availability of deep moisture suggests the possibility of bouts of heavy rain during the day Thursday into Thursday night. When all is said and done, we could be looking at rainfall totals in the 1.5″-2″ range across the area, depending on the final track of the storm. The further west the track, the further west the highest impact areas will be, and the inverse for tracks further east. High temperatures will remain mild until after the storm departs to the northeast, with high temperatures in the low 60s.

gfs_namer_072_1000_850_thick — GFS model output for Thursday

Friday – rain should end early Friday as the low lifts to the northeast. Winds will pick up and shift towards the north, resulting in much cooler high temperatures only in the mid-50s.

We get a cool but sunny Saturday before another chance of rain Sunday.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region