Category Archives: Weekend

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 14, 2014

November 14, 2014Noreaster, NYC, Rain, Snow, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendcold, fall, new york city weather, noreasters, nyc, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, nyc weekend wx, nyc wx, rain, snow, weekend weather, winter, winter weatherLei Zhao

You can feel the chill in the air now. This cold will continue Saturday, but we’ll get a slight warmup Sunday and Monday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the southwest. Behind that low pressure system, we get a reinforcing blast of arctic air that will be entrenched through the rest of next week. I’m also monitoring the potential for a Nor’easter just in time for the busy travel day Wednesday and through Thanksgiving.

Saturday – a cold day on tap despite ample sunshine. High temperatures will be generally in the lower 40s. There’ll be a noticeable northwest wind making it feel like it’s in the 30s.

Sunday – a milder day with warm air flowing in ahead of a low pressure system, but by warm, I mean highs only around 50. Clouds will increase throughout the day and there could be some rain Sunday night.

Monday – rain will be falling for the majority of the day, with highs in the city in the mid-40s. Monday night gets interesting with the potential for a rain/snow mix in the city, and all snow in interior regions north and west. Depending on the timing of the main slug of precipitation with this system, we could actually get some accumulating snow in the city also (the later in the night the main body of precipitation falls, the colder it will be, and the better the conditions for snow).Tuesday – cold air rushes back in behind this storm on Monday and we drop back into high temperatures hovering in the low 40s.

Potential Thanksgiving Nor’easter?

In looking ahead at the long-term GFS model output, I’m noting the possibility for a possible high-impact Nor’easter that would be timed to coincide with the busiest travel day right before and then during Thanksgiving. Of course, this far out, there’s still considerable uncertainty to the forecast, so this scenario could not pan out, or the storm track could be nowhere close to where it needs to be to produce a high-impact Nor’easter. Still, it’s worth watching, as it could be a major headache for folks if it does materialize.

NYC Weather Update – Nov 11, 2014

November 11, 2014Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Update, Weekendarctic air, arctic oscillation, climate, cold, cold weather, fall, new york weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, snow, winterLei Zhao

I hope you all took advantage of this gift of incredibly warm weather that coincided with a federal holiday, because that’s going the be the last gasp of mild weather for at least the next 7-10 days. As you probably heard, we are going to get walloped by an arctic airmass the latter half of the week that will bring an abrupt end to fall temperatures and make it feel like we jumped straight into winter – I’m talking high temperatures that won’t even get out of the low 40s by week’s end. Before you ask, no this is not a polar vortex – it will be damn cold nonetheless.

Wednesday – this will be the last day we get above 60 degrees for quite a while. We are currently in a warm sector in between a warm front that pushed through earlier this week and ahead of a cold front that will be open the door to an arctic airmass swinging down from Canada. High temperatures in the Central Plains and Intermountain West where this airmass has already taken hold are ranging from the teens to the 30s. But Wednesday, we’ll still be in the mid-60s, although it won’t be as pleasant as today with a foggy and cloudy start to the day. Once the cold front below passes, clouds should clear quickly and lead to excellent conditions for radiational cooling, with low temperatures dropping into the low 40s and into the 30s in the interior areas north and west.
Thursday – it won’t be that cold just yet, with high temperatures still expected to hit the low 50s. But clouds will again increase ahead of a second, quick-moving storm system that is expected to pass through Thursday night into Friday. This will be the real arctic sledgehammer that brings seriously cold air into the region. There will be enough energy and moisture in the atmosphere for the possibility of rain/snow mix on Thursday night and even all snow in the city Friday morning.

Friday – skies should clear quickly during the day Friday, but despite all the sun, temperatures will struggle to hit the mid-40s. Arctic air will be firmly entrenched from this point on until as long as Thanksgiving!

Saturday – High pressure will be in control Saturday, high temperatures will have a difficult time hitting 40 though, because the setup of the high will favor northerly winds. Sunday – yet another storm system brings us the chance for some precipitation. Behind that system – you guessed it, more cold air and temperatures that will be two standard deviations below normal for this time of year, as per our local forecast office.

For those of you who are interested in the long-term outlook, based on forecast models and the arctic oscillation index forecast, it looks like this blast of cold air will be sticking around with us for at least the next 7-10 days, and may not break until Thanksgiving. The Arctic Oscillation measures the climate pattern of winds circulating at high latitudes close to the arctic. When it is in it’s negative phase (as is about to be the case, on the right end of all the charts below), higher pressure tends to dominate over the arctic while lower than normal pressure occurs in mid-latitudes (i.e. our area). Air tends to flow from areas of high pressure towards areas of low pressure, so this pattern sets up favorable conditions for the intrusion of bitterly cold air into our region.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 7, 2014

November 7, 2014NYC, Weather Update, Weekendarctic, cold, cold front, new york city weather, nyc, nyc weekend weather, nyc wx, weather, weekend weatherLei Zhao

A gloomy looking Friday will give way to a sunny though cool weekend. Next week starts off with near normal temperatures and dry conditions, but get ready for a blast of Arctic air later in the week with high temperatures falling into the mid-40s by the end of next week.

Saturday – cool but sunny to start. High temperatures will be in the low 50s. Clouds build in advance of a passing cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sunday – a moisture starved cold front will approach from the west, and precipitation is not expected in NYC, though could see some spotty showers in interior regions. High temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-50s.

Monday – high temperatures again in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – another good day weather-wise with highs in the mid-upper 50s and mostly sunny skies.

We will feel the effects of a strong cold front next Wednesday. A Canadian Arctic airmass will work its way into the region following this frontal passage, leading temperatures to plummet down into the 40s!

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 24, 2014

October 24, 2014Noreaster, NYC, Storms, Weather Update, Weekendhigh pressure, new york city weather, noreaster, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, weather, wx, wx forecastLei Zhao

We are still feeling the impacts of that Nor’easter that passed through Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some lingering showers east of NYC this morning, before gradual things begin to dry out and skies gradually clear from west to east. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s, but with a north wind blowing, it will still feel quite cool. We’ve got an excellent, fall weekend on tap.

Saturday – we’ll get sunny skies again, and high temperatures will remain in the mid-60s.

Sunday – much the same as Saturday.

Monday – high pressure will continue to build to our south. This will mean a shift in winds to the south and southwest, which will open the door for warmer air to stream in from the south. High temperatures in the mid-upper 60s, under sunny skies.

Tuesday – as that high pressure strengthens, we’ll get another day of even warmer temperatures Tuesday with highs near 70. We’ll be watching for another storm system approaching from the west that could bring us a chance of rain Wednesday.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 18, 2014

October 18, 2014Climate, Noreaster, NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekendautumn, climate, coastal low, cold front, fall, gusty, high pressure, wind gusts, windy, winter outlookLei Zhao

We get one last day of late summer-like temperatures today before autumn comes back with a vengeance. A cold front has already passed through the city and you can already notice the winds beginning to shift to the northwest. This will herald a much cooler temperature trend. For the remainder of today, we can expect temperatures near 70 with some clouds building behind the front. There could be a sprinkle or two but nothing serious.

Sunday will be noticeably more cold with high temperatures struggling to hit the mid-50s and with a gusty northwest wind. Gusts could top 30mph at times with sustained winds 15-25mph. Overnight lows into Sunday and Sunday night will be downright chilly in the 40s. Some interior areas could see frost Sunday night.

Monday the winds will abate as the pressure gradient between the departing cold front and high pressure to the west eases. Temperatures will remain cool at only around 60.

Tuesday and into later this week we will see the impact of a frontal system that moves through from the Great Lakes and develops as a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic. Current models seem to suggest that this low will linger for a few days offshore, so we could see multiple rounds of rain as bands rotate around the storm center.

Winter Climate Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center has released its 3 month temperature and precipitation long range outlooks for the months ahead. As you will see, CPC has the NYC area in a zone of 33% chance of seeing a wetter and warmer than average winter. Call it a hunch, but I still think we’ll get a couple nasty Nor’easter type blizzards. Warmer than average of course doesn’t imply we won’t get freezing temperatures. A slightly warmer atmosphere would allow for more moisture and energy for coastal storms to feed off.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 2, 2014

October 3, 2014NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendautumn, bikems, bikemsnyc, cold front, gfs, nam, nyc weather, rain, thunderstorms, triple point, warm front, weather update, weekend weather, weekend wxLei Zhao

Friday and Sunday will be the sunny and pleasant bookends to what will be a stormy and rainy Saturday this weekend.

Today – we’re looking at sunny skies and high temperatures in the low 70s. Clouds will begin to build back in later in the evening as the storm maker for Saturday begins to move in from the west.

Screen Shot 2014-10-03 at 8.00.54 AM — NAM high resolution model output for Saturday at 10AM EDT

Screen Shot 2014-10-03 at 8.01.47 AM — Weather Prediction Center forecast map for Saturday

Saturday – a negatively tilted frontal system will be moving over the area Saturday, with the worst of the rain coming between about 10AM-3PM. We will be in the vicinity of a triple point (junction between a cold, stationary, and occluded front, this feature is common with mature mid-latitude cyclonic systems) that will be draping south from a strengthening low pressure center that will be moving northeast into Ontario during this timeframe. A thunderstorm is not out of the question given the atmospheric dynamics. Temperatures should hover around the 70 degree mark despite the cloud cover and rain because of the potential for us to briefly enter a warm sector between the stationary front and cold front.

Sunday – we get a crisp blast of autumn air behind the frontal system passing through Saturday. Sunshine returns just in time for the annual BikeMS NYC, which yours truly will be participating in. Cool temperatures will be only in the mid-upper 60s.

Monday – good weather sticks around for the start of the work week with high temperatures around 70.

Our next chance for precipitation should come Tuesday-Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible for the rain Saturday is forecast to close off and retrograde (move west instead of east, with prevailing upper level winds) over central Canada. An impulse of energy will rotate around this center and lead to another cold front passing through our area.

NYC Weather Update – Sept 23, 2014

September 23, 2014Noreaster, NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekendautumn, coastal low, cold front, fall, noreaster, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, rosh hashanah, weatherLei Zhao

Today marks the first day of astronomical autumn, and it has been feeling ever more fall-like the past few days.

Wednesday – the day should start off partly cloudy, and high temperatures will sit at right about 70. However, with a coastal low forming off the Mid-Atlantic, cloud cover will increase especially later in the day.

NAM high resolution model output for Thursday, 9/25 @ 11AM EDT.

Thursday – a slow moving coastal low (technically a Nor’easter) will be moving over the NYC region during the early morning hours Thursday and throughout the course of the day itself. With the low pressure center just to our south or southeast, we should see a cool northeast wind off the ocean. This will limit high temperatures to only the upper 60s under cloudy skies and periods of rain.

Friday – with this coastal low out of the way, high pressure will take control again and clear the way for a superb start to the Rosh Hashanah weekend. Highs on Friday should bounce back nicely into the mid 70s under clearing skies.

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 6.40.40 PM — GFS model output for Saturday, 9/26

Saturday – high temperatures will continue climbing to nearly 80 on Saturday under clear skies.

Sunday – pretty much a carbon copy of Saturday. High near 80.

The next chance at rain will be next Tuesday with a cold front approaching us from Canada.

NYC Weather Update – Sept 17, 2014

September 17, 2014NYC, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, cool, nyc weather, nyc wx, warm front, weather update, weekend weatherLei Zhao

It’s going to be a quiet weather week after the rain that passed yesterday. For the remainder of the week, high pressure will keep conditions fair and sunny, despite the passage of a weak cold front tomorrow. Temperatures today and Thursday should be in the mid-70s. There will be a slight cool-off Friday after the passage of that weak cold front, but things will warm back up this weekend.

Saturday – high temperatures will be in the mid-70s, partly cloudy skies.

Sunday – a warm front will pass through early Sunday and allow for temperatures to climb to about 80. Clouds will increase as a trailing cold front approaches. No precipitation forecast at this point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a couple light showers with this front.

Get ready for the official start of autumn! Monday marks the autumnal equinox, the point at which night and day are about equal in length. From here on out, our days will be getting shorter and shorter, so try and get out there to soak in some rays and get some vitamin D in you.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 12, 2014

September 12, 2014NYC, Rain, Storms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Update, Weekendcanadian air, cool temperatures, nyc, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, weather, weekend weatherLei Zhao

Although the passage of a cold front yesterday didn’t bring any precipitation with it, you can definitely feel its impact in the form of much cooler and drier air today. Temperatures will be in the low 70s today with crisp, clear skies above.

Saturday – cloud cover will build tonight as an area of low pressure originating from the Tennessee Valley area slides along the frontal boundary that’s now located offshore to our east. This low pressure system will bring a solid chance at rain tomorrow especially later in the day into the evening hours. High temperatures will be cool, around 70, under cloudy skies.

NAM high resolution model output for Saturday evening at 8PM

Sunday – luckily, this storm system will exit rather quickly to our east, making Sunday an excellent day for outdoor activity of all varieties. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs in the low 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Monday – this week begins a trend towards cooler, fall-like temperatures as an upper air pattern favoring the intrusion of a cool, Canadian airmass takes hold. Highs on Monday will again only be in the low-70s, about 5 degrees cooler than average for this time of the year.

Tuesday – brings us our next shot at rain, as a weak impulse of energy passes through. The rest of the week after Tuesday looks like it will be uneventful, albeit on the cool side with the aforementioned arrival of a Canadian airmass and high pressure.

GFS 500mb vorticity and height model output. Note the two areas of very strong vorticity and closed heights in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific corresponding to two tropical systems.

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Sept 4, 2014

September 4, 2014NYC, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, high pressure, nyc weather, nyc wx, onshore, thunderstorms, weather, weather update, weekend weatherLei Zhao

We’re still in the grips of a warm and humid airmass, despite some cooling off last night due to the passage of a weak cold front. This warm trend will not break until a stronger cold front passes through the region on Saturday.

Friday – expect high temperatures once again in the mid-upper 80s, albeit with increasing cloud cover as stratus cloud decks start to filter in ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

Saturday – unfortunately, the timing of the cold front above does mean it will bring adverse impacts to our weekend plans. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede and accompany this frontal passage, particularly later in the day Saturday into Saturday evening. High temperatures ahead of the front will remain warm in the mid-80s, somewhat cooler near the shore. There will be a noticeable cooling with this round of storms.

Sunday – Clouds will diminish through the course of the day Sunday as a much cooler regime works its way into the area. High temperatures will only be in the upper 70s for Sunday and the beginning of the weak.

Monday – Skies will be mostly clear, and temperatures will be much cooler in comparison to Labor Day, with highs only in the upper 70s (~10 degrees cooler than Labor Day). High pressure building over us will lead to an onshore wind flow, bringing in a cool, maritime polar airmass.

Cool onshore flow due to high pressure Monday

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region