This week starts off right around average for this time of year, with pleasant, sunny conditions. High pressure remains in control for a good part of the week and temperatures start creeping up as the high pressure continues moving east and offshore. Clockwise flow around this exiting high pressure from the southwest and west will help warm temperatures up before the next chance for rain comes in Wednesday and Thursday.
Rest of today – clear skies with high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday
Tuesday – high pressure still in control, temperatures again in the low-70s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows warming up into the low-60s.
Wednesday – the high pressure center will be southeast of us and a warm front will push through. This should allow temperatures to reach into the low-80s with partly sunny skies. We could see an afternoon shower or thunderstorm as a result of increased instability. Overnight, a prefrontal trough and cold front is forecast to push through and lead to more chances for showers and thunderstorms with low temperatures in the mid-60s.
Pivotal Weather rendering of GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness and precipitation, 2AM Thursday
Thursday – partly sunny skies again with continuing chances for shower and thunderstorms later in the day. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.
During my time taking classes as part of Penn State University’s Undergraduate Certificate in Weather Forecasting, we were taught that understanding the climatology of the location you are interested in is an important prerequisite for making accurate forecasts. This post continues on this theme, adding a climatology for June.
City Name / Station ID: New York, NY (LaGuardia Airport – KLGA)
Local Geography and Topography
Station Elevation: 10 feet above sea level.
Station Location: LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) is situated on the north shore of Queens along the East River, approximately 6 miles east-northeast of Midtown Manhattan.
KLGA’s location within the broader NYC area, as seen in a Google Maps terrain view
Important Topographical Features: New York City is located in the extreme southeastern corner of New York State, bordering suburban New Jersey and Connecticut. These suburban regions combined with those in Long Island comprise the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area, which is the most populous urban agglomeration in the United States and one of the populous urbanized areas in the world with an estimated population of 18 million. New York City itself sprawls across the coastal plain around the Hudson River estuary. The terminal moraine formed by glaciers of the last Ice Age result in a ridge of higher terrain that cuts a swath from southwest to northeast across the boroughs from northern Staten Island, northern Brooklyn, southwestern through central and northeastern Queens. Otherwise, the city itself is low lying. This ridge varies in height between 200-400 feet, rising sharply from south to north, but tapering more gently north. North and west of the city (about 30-50 miles away), lie significant elevations of the Catskills (north), Poconos (west), Taconics that are part of the broader Appalachian Mountain Range. The elevations of the lower foothills can range from 1000-1500 feet. Some of the elevations in the Poconos and Catskills, west and north of KLGA respectively, peak between 2000-3000 feet. The open expanse of the Atlantic Ocean lies south of KLGA and New York City. Long Island Sound also lies east-northeast. The vast urbanized area of the NYC metropolitan region has significant effects on local microclimates via differential heating (urban heat island effect). KLGA is in a low-lying area sensitive to UHI effects and marine influences.
On winter mornings, ocean temperatures which are warm relative to the land reinforce the effect of the city heat island and low temperatures are often 10-20 degrees lower in the inland suburbs than in the central city. The relatively warm water temperatures also delay the advent of winter snows. Conversely, the lag in warming of water temperatures keeps spring temperatures relatively cool. One year-round measure of the ocean influence is the small average daily variation in temperature.
National Weather Service – NYC Office
Wind Patterns
Below is a wind rose – you can read more about how to interpret this chart here.
Frequency (percentage) of the single most common wind direction: Due south (13.5%).
Directions that are most and least common: Most common wind directions include due northwest (9.5%), due northeast (9.25%), and due southwest (just below 9%). Least common wind directions are east-southeast (1%), due east (1.5%), and due southeast (2.5%).
Direction(s) most likely to produce the fastest winds: Winds of 16.5-21.4 knots are most frequently found coming from due northwest, north-northwest, and due south.
Direction(s) least likely to produce the fastest winds: As is the case with several other spring months, the least common wind directions of due east, east-southeast, and due southeast also rarely seen winds in excess of 16.4 knots.
Impacts of wind direction on local weather: Wind patterns in June present a similar pattern to those in May, but with a notable increase in the frequency of winds from the southwestern quadrant, and a decrease in winds from the northeastern quadrant. This could be a reflection of shifting storm patterns, with coastal storms and backdoor cold fronts from the northeast becoming less common while more mid-latitude lows track inland north of the area, bringing more southerly warm sector flow. Persistent Bermuda highs can sometimes also develop in June over the western North Atlantic. The clockwise flow around these high pressure centers would result in more southerly and southwesterly winds. During this time of year, southwesterly winds should generally advect warmer, more humid air from the Southeastern US into the region. When this pattern becomes persistent, it can cause oppressive heat waves. Meanwhile, southerly winds (along with easterly and some northeasterly winds) would bring cooler, and more stable marine air, sometimes in the form of sea breezes. In the wake of passing cold fronts associated with mid-latitude storms, northwesterly and northerly winds, though decreasing in frequency compared to May, should still be effective at transporting cooler, drier Canadian (continential Arctic) airmasses into the area.
Maximum observed two-minute wind speed for the month: 36 (41 mph)
Temperature and Precipitation Averages/Records
Temperature units are in Fahrenheit and precipitation is in inches.
Worth Noting June is the first month of summer, and not surprisingly is also the first month of the season where record highs have exceeded 100ºF.
Temperatures cool off after a warm holiday weekend. A frontal boundary will linger in the area this week allowing multiple disturbances to move along it. This will result in multiple chances for rain but with generally mild temperatures except today. Looking into the weekend, it does appear that high pressure takes over and gives us a nice Saturday at the least.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy, temperatures cool, in the upper-60s. Showers early should give way to a period of dry weather, however, stronger showers and thunderstorms could hit later this evening around 8PM ahead of an approaching low sliding along a warm front just to our south. We are just outside Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk area for severe thunderstorms, and these storms should weaken as they near the more stable marine layer, in particular if clouds hold and no sun peaks through. Overnight lows staying steady in the upper-60s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Wednesday – a cold front is forecast to push through and allow for some drying out on Wednesday with partly sunny skies. High temperatures should rise into the upper-70s. Dry weather doesn’t last because yet another warm front pushes through later in the evening with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Overnight lows in the low-60s.
Thursday – another impulse of low pressure and warm front moves through the area bringing continued chances for rain. High temperatures in the upper-70s under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows again in the low-60s and with more chances for rain.
GFS model output for surface pressure, precipitation, 500 mb thickness at 6AM Friday
Friday – cold front sweeps through and allows for sunny skies to return, this should be a really nice day with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows about 60°F.
This week kicked off with high temperatures yesterday that were more typical of the mid-summer. Things have cooled off noticeably this morning in the wake of a cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to parts of the region last night. The remainder of the week should see temperatures around normal for this time of year, with the next chance for rain Thursday. Looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend, it seems there could be some rain chances especially late Saturday into Sunday.
Rest of today – sunny conditions with high pressure in control today. Fresh northwesterly breezes calming down later in the afternoon. High temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, yielding another great day with lots of sun and seasonable high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as a warm front approaches from the southwest.
Thursday – chance for showers, on the light side developing ahead of this approaching warm front. High temperatures in the low-70s with partly sunny skies. Rain chances increase going into the overnight hours as the parent low of the warm front nears, lows in the low-60s.
GFS model output fro surface pressure, 500 mb temperature and height valid 10PM Thursday
Friday – mostly sunny behind Thursday’s quick-moving storm. High temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60°F
After a very cool, wet start to the week, temperatures should moderate and conditions will gradually improve as we approach the weekend. A pattern change at mid and upper levels is apparent in forecast models going into this weekend. We finally break free of persistent troughing that brought the cold, rainy weather this weekend going into the beginning of this week. Instead, we’ll get to look forward to sunnier, warmer weather more in line with the calendar.
Rest of today – if we don’t reach 55°F, today will be the second day in a row we set a new record low and record low maximum at KLGA. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low-50s with lots of clouds. Needless to say, it’s been quite cold and below average for this time of year. The noreaster that brought us miserable conditions yesterday is steadily moving east. However, a surface trough and moisture is forecast to rotate around its back side as it keeps retreating east. This could result in scattered showers later in the afternoon and evening. Overnight lows are expected to be quite cool again, in the mid-40s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM today
Wednesday – temperatures should rebound nicely out of the gate as we finally get some clearing skies. High temperatures should reach into the mid-60s. Chance for showers overnight going into Thursday as a cold front approaches from the north. Overnight lows much warmer in the mid-50s.
Thursday – the warm up continues despite cloud cover associated with this approaching cold front. High temperatures expected to touch 70°F for the first time in a while. This passing (and slowing) cold front could continue to touch off a couple showers going into Friday. Overnight lows slightly cooler in the low-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Thursday
Friday – cooler with high temperatures in the upper-60s and partly sunny skies. Overnight lows into Saturday in the mid-50s. Pattern change is coming with large scale troughing forecast for the western US while a ridge builds east, essentially the opposite of the pattern we’ve had the past few days.
During my time taking classes as part of Penn State University’s Undergraduate Certificate in Weather Forecasting, we were taught that understanding the climatology of the location you are interested in is an important prerequisite for making accurate forecasts. This post continues on this theme, adding a climatology for May.
City Name / Station ID: New York, NY (LaGuardia Airport – KLGA)
Local Geography and Topography
Station Elevation: 10 feet above sea level.
Station Location: LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) is situated on the north shore of Queens along the East River, approximately 6 miles east-northeast of Midtown Manhattan.
KLGA’s location within the broader NYC area, as seen in a Google Maps terrain view
Important Topographical Features: New York City is located in the extreme southeastern corner of New York State, bordering suburban New Jersey and Connecticut. These suburban regions combined with those in Long Island comprise the Greater New York City Metropolitan Area, which is the most populous urban agglomeration in the United States and one of the populous urbanized areas in the world with an estimated population of 18 million. New York City itself sprawls across the coastal plain around the Hudson River estuary. The terminal moraine formed by glaciers of the last Ice Age result in a ridge of higher terrain that cuts a swath from southwest to northeast across the boroughs from northern Staten Island, northern Brooklyn, southwestern through central and northeastern Queens. Otherwise, the city itself is low lying. This ridge varies in height between 200-400 feet, rising sharply from south to north, but tapering more gently north. North and west of the city (about 30-50 miles away), lie significant elevations of the Catskills (north), Poconos (west), Taconics that are part of the broader Appalachian Mountain Range. The elevations of the lower foothills can range from 1000-1500 feet. Some of the elevations in the Poconos and Catskills, west and north of KLGA respectively, peak between 2000-3000 feet. The open expanse of the Atlantic Ocean lies south of KLGA and New York City. Long Island Sound also lies east-northeast. The vast urbanized area of the NYC metropolitan region has significant effects on local microclimates via differential heating (urban heat island effect). KLGA is in a low-lying area sensitive to UHI effects and marine influences.
On winter mornings, ocean temperatures which are warm relative to the land reinforce the effect of the city heat island and low temperatures are often 10-20 degrees lower in the inland suburbs than in the central city. The relatively warm water temperatures also delay the advent of winter snows. Conversely, the lag in warming of water temperatures keeps spring temperatures relatively cool. One year-round measure of the ocean influence is the small average daily variation in temperature.
National Weather Service – NYC Office
Wind Patterns
Below is a wind rose – you can read more about how to interpret this chart here.
Frequency (percentage) of the single most common wind direction: The most common wind direction for this month by frequency of occurrence is due south (~13%).
Directions that are most and least common: Due northeast (11.5%) winds present a second maximum of most frequent winds. The least common wind direction is east-southeast (~2%), followed by due east (~2.25%).
Direction(s) most likely to produce the fastest winds: Due northwest winds have a slim possibility of generating winds over 21.5 knots. No other wind direction seems to have a measurable occurrence of winds exceeding this speed. This is a marked difference from the previous two months when wind speeds of this magnitude were much more common. Winds of 16.5-21.4 knots are most frequently found coming from the west-northwest, due northwest, north-northwest, and due south.
Direction(s) least likely to produce the fastest winds: Due east, east-southeast, and due southeast winds rarely exceed 16.4 knots.
Impacts of wind direction on local weather: The most common wind directions in May differ from the previous two months, with northwesterly winds becoming less frequent, while southerly and northeasterly winds become more prominent. In fact, winds from the southern semicircle are generally more common than previous months. Cold air advection from northwest winds continue to influence temperatures in the wake of cold fronts approaching from the west, however, the effect should be dramatic than in prior spring months. Winds from the northeast can be associated to backdoor cold fronts arriving from the Canadian Maritimes, bringing a moist, cool maritime polar air mass; the advance of coastal Nor’easter type storms; or a warm front approaching from the south. The difference between sea surface temperatures and temperatures over land widens during May as daily normal highs increase. This increases the chances for sea breezes during periods of overall weak synoptic winds, though generally, southerly winds would allow for advection of warmer, more moist airmasses into the area. This would often be the case when the NYC region is in the warm sector of mid-latitude lows, preceding the passage of a typical cold front attached such lows.
Maximum observed two-minute wind speed for the month: 36 (41 mph)
Temperature and Precipitation Averages/Records
Temperature units are in Fahrenheit and precipitation is in inches.
Worth Noting: Average temperatures climb above 70ºF in May for the first time during the spring months. In 2019, new record lows were set for the 13th and 14th of May, at 42ºF and 44ºF respectively. In 2020, an all-time monthly record low of 36ºF was set on May 9th. In 2021, record lowest max temperatures were set for the 29th and 30th (52ºF, brrr), and record lows were set for the 29th-31st (48ºF, 48ºF, and 50ºF respectively)!
We have a beautiful, sunny start to the week for a change. This will be short-lived though, as a cold front will arrive late Tuesday and bring the first chance for rain this week. More rain arrives later this week with a storm system moving in. Looking ahead to the weekend, we should see a decent Mother’s Day weekend, but chances for rain do show up on Sunday.
Rest of today – mostly sunny, high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure in control today will give us a pleasant, spring day, right about average for this time of year. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM today
Tuesday – most of the day should be dry with high temperatures in the low-70s. Partly cloudy but increasing clouds late as a cold front moves into the area. This frontal boundary will be the focus for any rain that develops in the evening and overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday
Wednesday – should have another decent day after the rain moves through overnight. High temperatures in the mid-60s with partly sunny skies. Overnight lows going into Thursday in the low-50s with increasing clouds.
Thursday – mostly cloudy, chance for showers as a warm/stationary front approaches from the south. High temperatures cooler, around 60°F with overnight lows in the mid-50s.
A cool start to the week will lead into a period of extended unsettled weather, with multiple disturbances bringing chances for rain throughout the remainder of the week. During this period, temperatures will remain generally below normal under the influence of these cloudy conditions and rain, though not by much.
Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures rebounding into the upper-50s from a cool start in the mid-40s. The first of several quick-hitting storm systems should move in overnight, bringing generally light precipitation leading into early tomorrow morning. Overnight lows are expected to be warmer in the upper-40s with clouds staving off radiational cooling as occurred overnight into today.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday
Tuesday – brief period of dry weather Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds in. If more sun than clouds materializes during the afternoon, we could see temperatures nearing 70°F, though temperatures could end up in the low-60s if clouds linger all day. Rain chances increase into the overnight hours with overnight lows near 50°F.
Wednesday – mostly cloudy and cooler with a stationary front setting up near or just south of NYC. This will bring easterly onshore flow and keep temperatures in the mid-50s. As another low develops west of us and slides up along this stationary frontal boundary, rain chances will increase through Wednesday. Overnight lows in the low-50s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Thursday
Thursday – temperatures expected to rebound into the mid-60s with the stationary front changing into a warm front and slowly pushing north. Clouds and rain yet again. Mild overnight lows in the low-50s.
The slow-moving storm system that brought us heavy rain overnight last Friday into Saturday continues to linger off the coast of the Northeast, finally exiting by tomorrow. Rain chances will exist today, but give way to better conditions tomorrow. More rain is possible overnight into Wednesday, before drier weather works its way in on Thursday.
Rest of today – cloudy, with an increasing chance for showers in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.
High resolution rapid refresh model simulated radar for 4:45 PM today
Tuesday – with this low finally exiting, we should see a sunny day with temperatures warming into the low-70s. The sunny weather doesn’t last, as clouds increase overnight and rain is possible. Lows in the mid-50s.
Wednesday – conditions should improve after the morning hours, when the cold front that produces the rain chances overnight into Wednesday moves offshore. High temperatures should rebound nicely into the upper-60s. Overnight lows will be cooler in the low-50s behind this cold front.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Thursday – high pressure should take over and result in a sunny day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows going into Friday in the low-50s.
The same storm system that impacted the Deep South this weekend with severe weather, including several tornadoes that caused fatalities, swept through the area overnight. Some severe wind gusts were reported, and area transit networks experienced some delays due to storm-related damage. As this storm departs east, it will continue deepening, resulting in strong winds the remainder of today. Another storm system is forecast to move in to the region Thursday and going into the weekend. Temperatures during the week are expected to be mostly around normal for this time of year.
Rest of today – windy, with decreasing cloud cover. Steady west winds between 20-30 mph later in the day. This will help bring colder air into the area, with highs already peaking this morning in the low-60s then dropping back to the mid-50s by this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies.
Tuesday – sunny day, with winds calming and seasonable high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s and mostly cloudy.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday
Wednesday – increasing clouds as a backdoor cold front works its way through. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight, mostly cloudy with lows in the mid-40s.
Thursday – chance of rain as a low tracks slowly from the Plains to the Great Lakes. East of this low, a slow moving warm front could touch off showers during the day and overnight Thursday. High temperatures around 60°F, overnight lows quite mild due to the influence of the approaching warm front and warm advection, in the low-50s.
