Just a quick update on the storm coming in tonight into Monday. Latest forecast models are showing a much drier atmospheric profile and placing the best areas of lift (associated with heavier precipitation) well south of the immediate NYC area.

That being the case, NWS has lowered the forecast totals for NYC to at most 2-4″. Same for Long Island. Trace to a dusting for northern suburbs. The bulk of the heavier snow will stay to our south, over portions of central and southern NJ. See the following graphic which shows probabilities for greater than 4″ through Tuesday morning. NYC is barely in the 30-40% range. Snow should begin falling this evening and last into the early AM rush hour.

With the cold front having passed through today, we’ll see a return to much colder temps, with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the mid-20s. A gradual warmup will take place towards the middle and end of the week, with temps slowly clawing back to freezing, and even potentially topping 40 by Friday (that would still be about 5-6 degrees below normal for this time of year).

Next chance at significant precipitation will be Friday/Saturday with a possible coastal storm I referenced in the last entry.