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NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 29, 2021

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An arctic chill with bitterly cold winds kicks off the weekend as strong high pressure moves in. Overnight lows in the teens and high temperatures in the 20s will range 10-15ºF below normal for this time of year. This cold air could set the stage for a nor’easter bringing significant snowfall to the region, with totals > 6″ possible Monday into Tuesday. As usual, track details on this storm will be pivotal, and are not clear at this time.

Rest of today – mostly clear, cold, and windy with high temperatures in the low-20s. A strong arctic high and a departing low will create a tight pressure gradient that ushers in stiff northwesterly winds 20-25 mph. Wind chills will hover around 0ºF. Overnight temperatures drop into the mid-teens with wind chills likewise dropping below zero.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday. A strong area of high pressure is parked over much of the Eastern US.

Saturday – winds abate with high pressure moving more directly overhead. Sunny, but still cold with high temperatures around 30ºF. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens under increasing cloud cover.

Sunday – mostly cloudy as the next storm system starts to work in. High temperatures around 30ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-20s with the possibility of snow developing overnight into Monday morning.

  • GFS model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
  • ECMWF model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday
  • UKMET model total snowfall accumulation as of 7AM Tuesday

Monday – stiff northeasterly winds developing along with snow. High temperatures in the low-30s. The storm possibly bringing us significant snow came ashore over the west coast yesterday and will be transiting the country the next couple days. It is eventually forecast to spawn a coastal low, bringing a nor’easter into our region. Even though cold air will precede this storm, offshore waters are still mild, in the low 40s-50s, and with the storm likely to bring southerly/northeasterly flow at the outset, we could see enough warming to mix to rain at the coast. Storm track and strength will be vital to the eventual snowfall totals. Models seem to signal a very tight banding feature bringing heavy snow – you’ve heard this before but these bands are notoriously difficult to pinpoint even a day ahead of the event. If the optimal scenario plays out, we could see a storm with similar or possibly bigger totals than the one in December. Overnight lows Monday shouldn’t budge much, in the low-30s, with some warm advection associated with portions of the storm.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 22, 2021

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A cold and breezy start to the weekend with a cold front ushering in below average temperatures mostly in the mid-30s. High pressure builds and keeps things dry during the weekend. However, the upper-level pattern shifts to allow a shortwave trough to push through early next week, leading to a storm that could bring some accumulating snow overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-40s. A moisture-starved cold front will work its way through the region. The main impact of this front will be to induce a shift in winds to the northwest, and trigger some decent cold air advection. This will lead to overnight temperatures plummeting into the mid-upper 20s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind the cold front, giving us a mostly sunny day. This high pressure and a low off to the northeast over the Canadian Maritimes will lead to a fairly tight pressure gradient, and the result should be breezy winds from the northwest, sustained in the range of 15-20 mph at least. So despite the sun, the cold start to the day will lead to temperatures in the low-30s and a much colder feel with wind chills around 20ºF. Overnight lows will be the coldest in quite some time, in the low-20s.

Sunday – windy conditions continue at least part of the day with high temperatures in the mid-30s. Once the center of the high moves over us, winds should subside. Overnight lows in the mid-20s with clouds building in.

GFS model 500 mb height and vorticity animated loop valid 7PM Sunday through 7PM Monday, showing a de-amplifying shortwave trough ejecting from the southwest towards our region.

Monday – as the high pressure eventually moves off, a shortwave trough will be progressing towards our region. The accompanying surface low will bring mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures should peak in the mid-30s. Overnight, the storm is positioned to possibly bring us some light accumulating snow. Currently, it’s hard to pin down a total, but the following images from GFS and ECMWF models suggest something on the order of 3-5″ is possible. Low temperatures in the upper-20s should support all snow during this event, so storm track will be key here.

  • GFS model 24 hour snowfall total ending 1AM Wednesday
  • ECMWF model total snowfall ending 1AM Wednesday

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 15, 2021

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Our extended period of calm weather comes to an abrupt end this weekend. A low pressure system with its attendant vigorous cold front sweeps through overnight bringing moderate to heavy rain. We could see as much as 1-1.5″ of rain with this event. Behind this front, windy conditions prevail Sunday as the low exits but continues to deepen. Next week, we’ll see a return to normal temps around 40ºF.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Rain chances increase as the storm system approaches us. Warm air advection associated with the warm front of this storm will result in little movement on overnight lows, which will hover in the mid-40s. Moderate to heavy rain is likely after 9PM tonight and into the overnight hours.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh simulated radar for 1AM Saturday.

Saturday – as the storm pulls off to the east in the morning, rain chances should decrease, ending by noon. Isolated wrap around showers are possible. Temperatures will decrease during the day with cold air advection, dropping into the low-40s. Overnight lows in the mid-30s as skies clear.

Sunday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Breezy with west winds in the 15-20 mph range and stronger gusts due to a large pressure gradient around the exiting and intensifying low. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday. The low affecting us this weekend is seen in the upper right corner, with a tight clustering of isobars around it, indicating a large pressure gradient.

Monday – an upper level low will affect the area pushing a cold front through our region, but this front should be moisture starved. Partly sunny with highs around 40ºF. Overnight lows around 30ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 8, 2021

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The calm weather we enjoyed this week continues into next week. No storms are forecast through the beginning of next week. During this stretch, temperatures should be around normal at about 40ºF. Longer term, an Arctic blast may be in store next weekend, bringing much colder temperatures our way.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7AM Saturday, a coastal low well off to our south.

Saturday – high pressure remains in control, keeping an offshore low well away from us. Mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures around 40ºF. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure to the west should yield some steady winds and resulting wind chill values will be in the low-20s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s to around 30ºF.

Sunday – sunny with high temperatures around 40ºF. Winds should subside a bit with high pressure moving more directly overhead. Overnight lows around 30ºF.

Monday – high pressure continues to dominate our sensible weather with sunny skies as a result and another seasonable day with highs around 40ºF. Overnight lows again around 30ºF.

Arctic chill coming?

Longer term, looking into next weekend, it’s possible that a good swath of the Midwest and parts of the Northeast could see some much colder weather. Below, you’ll see a chart that shows a highly amplified pattern at the 500 mb level for next weekend, with much above normal heights in the west (warmer than normal conditions), and correspondingly much below normal heights in the east (colder than normal). It’s still too far out to know to what degree this cold snap will affect us though.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies next Saturday at 7PM. The blues, purples, and whites indicate much lower than normal heights. 500 mb heights can be a proxy for surface temperatures.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 18, 2020

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We could see the coldest overnight temperatures this season tonight following the big snowstorm earlier this week. High pressure builds in Saturday, though colder than normal temperatures remain in the low-30s. Temperatures start to rebound to the normal range in the low-40s next week. There’s a chance of stray showers Sun, otherwise a dry forecast. Possibility for more showers Tuesday, though uncertain at this time. Warming trend continues and and chances for precipitation increase later into next week.

Rest of today – partly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-30s. Overnight lows dropping to as low as around 20ºF with high pressure building leading to calm winds and good radiational cooling. This is only further enhanced by the presence of relatively fresh snowpack that helps insulate the ground from radiating heat upwards.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7AM Saturday, depicting high pressure sitting over much of the eastern US.

Saturday – with a cold start to the day, temperatures will only be climbing into the low-30s again, though high pressure should provide us with lots of sunshine. Overnight lows “warm” up to around 30ºF with return flow from the southwest as high pressure starts exiting east.

Sunday – a weak shortwave moves through, and could bring a couple of scattered showers. However, the associated frontal boundary will be weakening as it approaches, so precipitation isn’t all that likely, so we may instead just get a partly sunny day. Temperatures should rise to around 40ºF with warmer southwesterly flow ahead of this disturbance. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

GFS model 500 mb height and relative vorticity at 1PM Monday

Monday – high temperatures rising to the low-40s, back into normal range for this time of year with partly sunny to partly cloudy skies. A stronger mid-level trough will be approaching at this time. This may portend some precipitation going into Tuesday. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 11, 2020

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A mostly sunny start to the weekend gives way to rain Saturday as a storm center passes north of us. A warm front pushes through then becomes stationary, allowing for a period of mild temperatures and light rain. The mild weather lasts through Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s possible before a cold front sweeps through to start next week. Another storm passing off to our south cloud clip the region with rain Monday. Looking ahead, there’s potential for a coastal storm next week that could bring some snow/wintry precipitation to the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with clouds on the increase later, high temperatures in the low-50s with southwesterly winds circulating as a high pressure center slides off to the southeast. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with fog possible as moisture increases ahead of the next storm.

GFS model 10 meter above ground winds and surface pressure at 1PM Saturday. Note that winds will continue to be southerly, bringing us some milder air in stark contrast to the chilly weather earlier this past week.

Saturday – high temperatures in the mid-50s with warm, southerly winds continuing. Periods of showers likely especially during the afternoon, though a dry slot may work in and put a pause on rain before another round possibly overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-50s, barely budging due to the ongoing moderating influence of southerly winds.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7AM Sunday.

Sunday – high temperatures rising potentially into the upper-50s ahead of the cold front accompanying this storm. Rain should end in the morning and give way to a partly sunny afternoon. Overnight lows dropping quite a bit into the low-40s behind the cold front.

Monday – high temperatures in the upper-40s with the chance for showers as a weak low passes off to our south. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Coastal storm possible next week

GFS model runs suggest the possibility of a coastal storm that could bring some accumulating snow to the area mid-week next week. It’s far too early to tell if this scenario will pan out, as Euro models depict a warmer solution that would result in rain at the coast. We’ll see how subsequent model runs come together. Without a deep reservoir of cold air to draw on ahead of the storm, significant snowfall is less likely.

GFS model 24 hour snowfall accumulation ending 7AM next Thursday, with 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. Decent totals shown here are not a sure thing, especially this far out from the event.

NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 4, 2020

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A strong nor’easter/coastal low will impact NYC tonight into Saturday. Conditions will deteriorate with the worst weather overnight into tomorrow morning. Gusty winds, soaking rains will accompany this storm. Temperatures will also drop as the storm moves off northeast and winds turn to the north and northwest, however, cold air wrapping around the low will not arrive in time to set the stage for accumulating snow here. Storm clears out by later Saturday. Afterwards, calm, seasonably cool temperatures (low-40s) are in store for next week.

Rest of today – temperatures topping out in the upper-40s with warm air advection/warm front moving up ahead of the main storm. Cloudy, with chances for rain increasing through the day, mostly on the lighter side. Overnight lows largely holding steady in the mid-40s again due to the influence of the incoming warm front. Rain expected to increase in intensity overnight going into Saturday morning.

  • ECMWF hi-res model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 7AM Saturday
  • ECMWF hi-res model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 1PM Saturday
  • GFS model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 7AM Saturday
  • GFS model surface precipitation/precipitation type valid 1PM Saturday

Saturday – models are in pretty good agreement (see above images from GFS and ECMWF models depicting evolution of this storm during the day Saturday) that this coastal storm will evolve quickly and intensify as it tracks offshore southeast of the region. This will result in periods of rain throughout the first half of Saturday, along with increasingly strong winds as the pressure gradient tightens around the deepening low. As the low tracks northeast, winds will be turning from the south to the north and northwest. This will bring in much cooler air, although not cold enough to support accumulating snow at the coast. As a result, temperatures will be dropping during the day Saturday into the low-40s. Precipitation should end rather quickly in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low-30s wit winds easing.

Weather Prediction Center’s forecast storm track based on recent ensemble model runs.

Sunday – sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows around 30ºF.

Monday – similar day to Sunday with sunny weather and high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows again around 30ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 20, 2020

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We’ll see warmer than average temperatures around 60ºF to start the weekend before a cool off into the 50s Sunday. Temperatures rise again Monday into the upper-50s with a warm front approaching, then cold front bringing a chance of rain. Looking ahead at Thanksgiving temperatures seem like they should be mild we may see some rain in NYC.

Rest of today – sunny with highs generally in the upper-50s to near 60ºF. High pressure south of the region will lead to southwesterly flow that will bring us these mild temperatures. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

Saturday – a cold front is forecast to move through during the day, however, this front should be deprived of any significant moisture. Temperatures should remain mild in the upper-50s to around 60ºF once again. It won’t be until the overnight hours when temperatures start to drop in response to the cold front passage, with winds turning towards the north and lows falling into the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday, showing a cold front approaching from the northwest.

Sunday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures cooling off to around 50ºF. A warm front approaching from the southwest should stabilize temperatures and prevent much of a change overnight with lows barely budging in the upper-40s. The warm front, then a cold front following on its heels should bring us a round of showers.

Monday – rain diminishing early on. High temperatures in the upper-50s occurring early in the day prior to the cold front passage. Temperatures dropping steadily during the day after this into the 40s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

Looking ahead at Thanksgiving, there could be some rain coming our way though temperatures appear like they should be on the mild side.

GFS model 500 mb vorticity and height forecast for 7AM Thursday. A closed upper low over the Ohio valley is evident with lots of accompanying vorticity. Should this scenario actualize, we would expect to see some showers in our area during the day Thursday.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 13, 2020

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The record breaking warmth of last weekend and this past week will feel a world away this weekend with temperatures dropping to seasonable levels mostly in the 50s. Rain Friday will keep a damper on temperatures. Otherwise sunny conditions will be punctuated by a passing cold front Sunday bringing another round of rain. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the front around 60ºF before falling back into the low-50s. Colder air is in store next week with temperatures in the 40s.

Rest of today – cloudy with light rain possible as a wave of low pressure moves along a frontal boundary offshore. Highs in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s with skies clearing as high pressure builds in.

Saturday – with high pressure in control, expect sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows again in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday, showing a robust storm over the Great Lakes that will bring a cold front through our region later Sunday.

Sunday – a vigorous frontal system moves in from the west bringing rain chances later in the day and into the overnight hours. Southerly flow ahead of the front will bring temperatures up to around 60ºF. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with rain clearing out.

Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook for November 18-22, showing a decent chance for below average temperatures over the Northeast.

Monday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 6, 2020

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The warm weather we’ve seen this week carries right into the weekend with highs in the upper-60s to 70ºF, which is about 10ºF+ above average for this time of year. Slow moving high pressure dominates our sensible weather this weekend and into next week. Temperatures 8-10ºF above normal are forecast into mid-week next week. No significant rain chances either with this high pressure locked in through the weekend.

Rest of today – early low clouds and fog have been dissipating. Mostly sunny skies expected with high temperatures responding, climbing into the upper-60s and possibly topping 70ºF. Overnight lows drop back to the low-50s with a chance of fog developing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Sunday, showing high pressure southwest of NYC. This will be responsible for bringing us some spectacular weather this weekend.

Saturday – excellent weather continues with temperatures once again warming into the upper-60s and low-70s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows again in the low-50s.

Sunday – basically a repeat of Saturday, more sun, more warm temperatures in the upper-60s and low-70s. Overnight lows likewise low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, showing high pressure anchored over the Northeast.

Monday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.