NYC Weekend Weather – Dec 11, 2020

A mostly sunny start to the weekend gives way to rain Saturday as a storm center passes north of us. A warm front pushes through then becomes stationary, allowing for a period of mild temperatures and light rain. The mild weather lasts through Sunday with high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s possible before a cold front sweeps through to start next week. Another storm passing off to our south cloud clip the region with rain Monday. Looking ahead, there’s potential for a coastal storm next week that could bring some snow/wintry precipitation to the area.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with clouds on the increase later, high temperatures in the low-50s with southwesterly winds circulating as a high pressure center slides off to the southeast. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with fog possible as moisture increases ahead of the next storm.

GFS model 10 meter above ground winds and surface pressure at 1PM Saturday. Note that winds will continue to be southerly, bringing us some milder air in stark contrast to the chilly weather earlier this past week.

Saturday – high temperatures in the mid-50s with warm, southerly winds continuing. Periods of showers likely especially during the afternoon, though a dry slot may work in and put a pause on rain before another round possibly overnight. Overnight lows will be in the low-50s, barely budging due to the ongoing moderating influence of southerly winds.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7AM Sunday.

Sunday – high temperatures rising potentially into the upper-50s ahead of the cold front accompanying this storm. Rain should end in the morning and give way to a partly sunny afternoon. Overnight lows dropping quite a bit into the low-40s behind the cold front.

Monday high temperatures in the upper-40s with the chance for showers as a weak low passes off to our south. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Coastal storm possible next week

GFS model runs suggest the possibility of a coastal storm that could bring some accumulating snow to the area mid-week next week. It’s far too early to tell if this scenario will pan out, as Euro models depict a warmer solution that would result in rain at the coast. We’ll see how subsequent model runs come together. Without a deep reservoir of cold air to draw on ahead of the storm, significant snowfall is less likely.

GFS model 24 hour snowfall accumulation ending 7AM next Thursday, with 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. Decent totals shown here are not a sure thing, especially this far out from the event.