Tag Archives: tropical weather

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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This week we will see a possibility of an extended period of cloudy weather, punctuated by periodic storms. This regime will bring cooler than normal temperatures mostly in the low-80s. Good news: Labor Day weekend looks to be dry and cool so far! Looking to the tropics, we’re about to enter the peak of hurricane season, and it’s no surprise in this very active season to date to see that National Hurricane Center is monitoring four disturbances that could become tropical storms.

Rest of today – cool, generally cloudy with possible peaks of sun, high temperatures in the upper-70s. Temperatures will be cool due to a persistent onshore flow with an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a slow-moving warm front/stationary front to our south. This latter frontal boundary may also spark some showers overnight, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday

Tuesday – the cool, cloudy trend continues with high temperatures again topping out in the upper-70s. Showers may occur periodically during the day. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with chances of showers continuing.

Wednesday – the cloudy, rainy weather continues, though temperatures may be a touch warmer around 80ºF. Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s as the warm front finally pushes through.

Thursday – cloudy, with a chance for showers, and warmer temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Shower chances persist overnight.

Watching the tropics

Keeping eyes on the tropics, given that we’re about to enter the peak of the season (September) when oceanic heat content tends to be the highest, providing the greatest potential fuel for storms. There are four disturbances in the Atlantic that could become tropical systems, however, none of them are an immediate threat to the US mainland.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 28, 2020

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Moisture associated with the remnants of Laura are set to bring soaking rain starting the weekend. A cold front eventually clears things out by Sunday, which will bring a markedly drier air mass into the region. Temperatures during this period will be generally cooler than at most points this week, in the low-80s. Next week, we could see a return to hotter weather towards mid-week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Chances for rain and thunderstorms later in the day along a warm front that’s forecast to lift through during the day. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances continuing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. By this time, a warm front will have lifted through and the remnants of Laura will be contributing moisture to rains over the region.

Saturday – Laura, which wrought serious devastation over the Gulf Coast, will make itself felt on Saturday, contributing tropical moisture to rain that will impact the area. This moisture will contribute to very high precipitable water content > 2″, which could lead to localized flooding. Mostly cloudy with rain possible throughout the day. Stronger storms are possible in the afternoon. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances diminishing as a cold front sweeps through.

  • GFS model precipitable water content valid 8AM Saturday. Very moist values of > 2.00″ are possible.
  • Weather Prediction Center’s analysis of possible rainfall totals Saturday. Parts of the region could see easily see 0.75-1.00″.

Sunday – by the morning, the trailing cold front associated with the primary low bringing this rain should’ve already pushed through. This will lead to a much drier, cooler day, with high temperatures peaking around 80ºF and plenty of sun. Winds may be gusty at times from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s due to good radiational cooling with clear skies and winds calming.

Monday – even cooler than Sunday with high temperatures in the upper-70s, and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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After a rainy, cool weekend, temperatures will rebound into the low-80s as high pressure takes over. This will bring about a week of pleasant, mostly dry weather, with plenty of sun all the way through end of the week. Further afield, we’re watching the tropics for 2 possible tropical storms brewing.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with some potential for a scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region later this evening. Timing of these storms hitting the area appears to be around 8-10PM.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Tuesday
  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar valid at 9:30PM tonight

Tuesday – behind this cold front, westerly downsloping winds will actually help temperatures rebound into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper-60s.

Thursday – another great day with lots of sun and highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Watching the tropics

Way out in the tropical Atlantic, we have two tropical waves that the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on. These two waves could develop into the 12th and 13th named storms of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which thus far has been breaking records for the fastest forming named storms, beating out the horrific 2005 season that produced Katrina, Wilma, and some storms that had Greek alphabet names.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weekend, Tropical Storm Fay Weather – Jul 10, 2020

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Tropical Storm Fay will bring heavy rain, strong winds, flash flooding to start the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of NYC as well as coastal New Jersey and Connecticut, including all of Long Island. Conditions should start to improve Saturday as Fay continues tracking north and inland. We may even see some sun by Sunday. Temperatures start in the low-80s with the rain and clouds from Fay, but should be warming up upper-80s later on this weekend.

Rest of today – cooler with high temperatures in the low-80s. Windy and rain, with bouts of heavy, tropical downpours. 2-4″ of rain are possible with this storm. Sustained winds could approach tropical storm force (30-40 mph) near Fay’s core if it tracks over us. Otherwise, gusts up to 50 mph are possible. The main threat from Fay is from the heavy rains that could produce flash flooding. Overnight lows in the low-70s with tropical storm conditions still possible as Fay lifts north.

  • National Hurricane Center forecast for Tropical Storm Fay.
  • Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Fay. Note the widespread totals of 2-4″ possible in our region.

Saturday – as Fay lifts north and inland, it will weaken rapidly. Conditions should improve with a spell of dry weather possible before another non-tropical frontal system impacts the area with thunderstorms possible. Temperatures should be warm, in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances diminishing behind the passage of this cold front.

Sunday – we may start off dry with some sun, which could allow temperatures to climb to the low-90s. However, scattered thunderstorms are possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Monday – similar day to Sunday, with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Partly sunny skies to start and isolated thunderstorms possible later in the day. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

NYC Weather Update – Jul 5, 2020

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A hot, humid, and stormy start to the week with highs in the low-90s. A backdoor cold front moves through, granting a reprieve from heat mid-week with highs cooling off to the mid-80s Tuesday. The heat comes back after this. Later this week, and into the weekend, a storm with possible tropical characteristics could bring heavy rain to the region.

Rest of today – sunny to start with highs quickly climbing into the low-90s. Clouds increase later this afternoon. A shortwave trough will spark the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, around 4PM. These storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances quickly dying off.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – a backdoor cold front will push through overnight. The onshore flow from the northeast behind this front should result in mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms could still impact the area in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front will return north as a warm front Wednesday. Temperatures will remain stable with high temperatures in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures rebound into the upper-80s and low-90s possibly with fewer clouds as high pressure briefly builds in. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking towards the end of the week, we’ll be monitoring the progress of a low pressure center that the National Hurricane Center has identified as having the potential to develop tropical characteristics. This storm could bring some heavy rain this weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 2, 2020

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A stretch of slightly above normal temperatures in the low-80s is in store for us as we kick off the month of June. Temperatures and humidity will pick up noticeably tomorrow with a warm front passing through. Some thunderstorms are possible with the trailing cold front. Weather improves Thursday then rain chances increase again later in the week. The tropics have been active, too, with Tropical Depression Three forming in the Bay of Campeche.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with a chance of showers developing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday.

Wednesday – rain chances continue into the day Wednesday with a warm front passing through early in the day. Temperatures will warm up into the low-80s in response to southerly flow. Some break in the clouds possible between the warm front and a trailing cold front. Clouds increase again later with this cold front. Some thunderstorms could pop up. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances diminishing and clouds clearing.

Thursday – high pressure briefly builds in with temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances increasing again as another frontal system moves in.

Friday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

In the tropics

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be an active one, and is living up to this forecast so far. A tropical depression formed yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, and if it organizes into a named tropical storm before Thursday, it will break a record for the earliest time for a third named storm to form. For now, this storm poses little risk for the US, but will bring heavy rain to a wide swath of southeastern Mexico and Central America. Later in the forecast period, this storm could track out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf Coast.

GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche this morning.

NYC Weather Update – May 18, 2020

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While it looked earlier this weekend that this would be a rainy week, it now appears that strong high pressure will keep two storm systems largely at bay. One of these will be the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that formed this weekend. The tradeoff is that this high of Canadian origin will bring cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s. This pattern breaks up by late this week, yielding warmer temperatures in the 70s by this weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy though no rain expected with high temperatures around 70ºF. Clouds from the two storm systems below will remain throughout the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s as skies gradually clear.

In this GOES geocolor visible satellite loop, you can clearly see two centers of circulation – one over the Midwest associated with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone, and one over the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – high pressure continues building, and blocks the northward and northeastward progress of both storms. Temperatures cool into the mid-60s despite more sun with northeasterly onshore winds. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to have undergone extratropical transition by this point, and potentially strengthened due to baroclinic forcing. The proximity of this storm to the high pressure will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in stronger winds during the day Tuesday. Overnight around 50ºF.

Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, producing sunny skies. High temperatures still cooler than normal in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 23-27: temperatures appear ready to rebound going into this weekend to above normal levels.

Thursday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s still. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 25, 2019

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This weekend starts off with fair and dry weather. A storm developing along the Gulf Coast of Texas, tracking north along the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Great Lakes, then east towards our area will bring a prolonged period of steady rain on Sunday. As of 11AM today, National Hurricane Center has designated this storm as Tropical Depression Seventeen. This storm should pull out of the area before the start of next week. Temperatures during this period should be at or above average for this time of the year in the low-mid 60s.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with a cold front weakening, then stalling and returning north as a warm front. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds briefly and should give us mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with increasing clouds and chances for rain.

Sunday – much like last weekend, a storm with tropical origins will bring rain and lots of moisture to the area. The extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Seventeen will track north towards the Great Lakes during this period. A warm front attached to it will bring a shield of steady stratiform rain over the area. Mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-60s as winds turn to the south. Steady rain continuing into the early overnight hours until the storm’s trailing cold front finally sweeps through and drier air works in. Lows in the mid-50s.

  • NAM model output for relative humidity and wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the nearly saturated nature of the lower levels of the atmosphere.
  • NAM model output for wind at 850 mb for 5PM Sunday. Note the high wind speeds at this level, indicating the presence of an 850 mb low-level jet (LLJ)
  • NAM model output for precipitable water at 2PM Sunday. Note the high values above 1.50″. This makes sense, given the tropical origins of the storm that will impact us Sunday.
  • Projected track of Tropical Depression Seventeen

Monday – high pressure and calmer conditions return with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 18, 2019

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Soaking rains from Wednesday’s nor’easter have long since exited east, yet we will continue to feel the impact of this low with windy conditions to start the weekend. As the low continues moving east, an area of high pressure will build in and take its place. Winds will relax and we should enjoy a nice, sunny day for Saturday. Clouds are expected to build back in as a potential extratropical remnant low of what could become Subtropical Storm Nestor this weekend pass south of the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be at or just below normal in the low-60s with a warm up going into next week.

Rest of today – windy conditions continue as the pressure gradient between a building area of high pressure to the west and the low that brought us rain Wednesday which is now over the Canadian Maritimes. High temperatures around 60°F with partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows expected to be quite cool, in the low-40s with skies looking to clear up and winds dying down – conditions that could lead to some strong radiational cooling.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in and gives us a sparkling, sunny, fall day with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows milder around 50°F.

Sunday – although the extratropical remnants of what could be Subtropical Storm Nestor are forecast to pass well south of the area, this storm is expected to have a broad cloud shield to its north, and some outlying rain bands could even result in a couple scattered rain showers for the area. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s, because even with clouds, overall flow will be from the south. Overnight lows around 50°F again.

  • GOES satellite imagery of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
  • National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast track guidance for this storm

Monday – with this low exiting east, we’ll see more southerly flow ahead of the next incoming storm system. High temperatures should respond by warmingin into the upper-60s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.