Tag Archives: 500 mb

NYC Weekend Weather – Jan 8, 2021

The calm weather we enjoyed this week continues into next week. No storms are forecast through the beginning of next week. During this stretch, temperatures should be around normal at about 40ºF. Longer term, an Arctic blast may be in store next weekend, bringing much colder temperatures our way.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s.

Weather Prediction Center’s surface forecast for 7AM Saturday, a coastal low well off to our south.

Saturday – high pressure remains in control, keeping an offshore low well away from us. Mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures around 40ºF. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure to the west should yield some steady winds and resulting wind chill values will be in the low-20s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s to around 30ºF.

Sunday – sunny with high temperatures around 40ºF. Winds should subside a bit with high pressure moving more directly overhead. Overnight lows around 30ºF.

Monday high pressure continues to dominate our sensible weather with sunny skies as a result and another seasonable day with highs around 40ºF. Overnight lows again around 30ºF.

Arctic chill coming?

Longer term, looking into next weekend, it’s possible that a good swath of the Midwest and parts of the Northeast could see some much colder weather. Below, you’ll see a chart that shows a highly amplified pattern at the 500 mb level for next weekend, with much above normal heights in the west (warmer than normal conditions), and correspondingly much below normal heights in the east (colder than normal). It’s still too far out to know to what degree this cold snap will affect us though.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies next Saturday at 7PM. The blues, purples, and whites indicate much lower than normal heights. 500 mb heights can be a proxy for surface temperatures.