NYC Midweek Weather Update – Mar 19, 2014

Rain is on the way this Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should be in the mid 40s around the city. We’re not expecting anything too heavy in terms of precipitation, more likely a light, showery type of event.

Here’s an infrared satellite image of the incoming low pressure system that will be our rainmaker today and tonight. Note the classic comma head formation starting to take shape, indicating a low pressure center with a trailing cold front.
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Thursday, the first day of spring, will be a dry day, even though the cold front will push through, easterly winds associated with the departing low pressure center will keep overnight temps up. Highs on Thursday should be around 50 with mostly sunny skies.

Friday promises to be another dry day with sunny skies and a high right around average for this time of year at 50.

Saturday another weak low pressure system will move through and bring a chance for rain. The cold front coming along with this low pressure center will have a bigger bite: a polar high pressure will slide down behind this front, leading again to much colder temps Sunday-Tuesday.

By Monday & Tuesday, we’re looking at temperatures only in the upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below average. A storm system is forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico and track across the Southeast, moving offshore of the Atlantic Tuesday. There is still uncertainty as to whether we’ll see precipitation, but if we do, temperature profiles will support snow showers/flurries.

Here’s the GFS Model’s forecast for the storm on Tuesday. It will pass well offshore of NYC, but may still precipitation bands may still rotate around it far enough north to impact us.

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