Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.

Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.

Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.

Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.

Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph). 

The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html