Crisp fall weather is in place for the start of this work week on the heels of yesterday’s strong storm. Winds abate today but temperatures turn noticeably colder tomorrow. A gradual warming trend is anticipated later this week with highs pushing back towards 70°F.
Rest of today – as the low pressure responsible for yesterday’s storm continues to pull away from us to the north-northeast, the pressure gradient will relax and result in lower wind speeds. These winds will bring with them a much cooler Canadian airmass (via cold advection) and high temperatures should be in the mid-50s.
Map of analyzed values of cold advection (transfer of heat, or in this case, lack of heat). The blues and purples indicate areas of increasing intensity of cold advection, where temperatures are falling by as much as 2ºF an hour. The causative agent of the cold advection in the Northeast are the winds associated the departing storm.
Tuesday – sunny skies, a sparkling fall day with high temperatures in the mid-50s again.
Wednesday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s.
Thursday – a return to warmer temperatures in the mid-60s with us in the warm sector between a retreating warm and advancing cold front.
The National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just south of Isla de Juventud in Cuba. The formation of TD Eighteen has implications on the forecast for Sunday’s storm as a complex scenario is set to unfold.
Impacts: forecasters are anticipating a high wind, and heavy rain event coming up. Storm total rainfall of 2-4″ and possibly higher could lead to urban and small stream flooding. The amount of rainfall over a short period of time has led our local forecast office to issue flash flood watches for much of the region. Winds will pick up as well, backing from the south to southeast, east, and eventually to north and northwest. Wind gusts could become a problem for local airports and for poor travel conditions in general. Thunderstorms are a possibility as well.
Timing: Winds are already increase today, and cloud cover will do so as well as the day progresses. Chances for rain will increase in the overnight hours, probably after 2-3AM. The strongest wind gusts will actually come on the back side of the storm going into Monday as it intensifies and the pressure gradient increases.
Discussion: a complicated set up is unfolding with a longwave trough (on the left) draping from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Meixco interacting with a developing closed low over the Tennessee Valley, and TD Eighteen. TD Eighteen is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm, which would be named Phillippe if it did form. The effect of this will be to provide a conveyor of warm and moist air from the tropics up to our area. This will help feed the developing non-tropical low forming over the southeast. This low will become the primary rainmaker, and the tropical system (whether a depression or storm) will eventually merge with it. Plenty of instability to fuel a growing storm! The pressure gradient will tighten as this storm strengthens and departs eastward, and that will be the reason for a gusty start to the work week.
The weekend starts with beautiful, sunny, fall weather. We see a slight warm up but this will be accompanied with rounds of rain beginning overnight Sunday going into Monday. Temperatures return to normal levels to start the week.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s.
Saturday – sunny and slightly warmer with temperatures in the upper-70s. Robust southerly flow ahead of an advancing cold front associated with a weakening low pressure system will push warmer, and more moist air over the region.
Sunday – this southerly winds will set the stage for a wet and windy Sunday. As the cold front nears and lift is maximized, we could even get a shot at some thunderstorms. Winds should be in the 15-20 mph range with stronger gusts over 30 mph. Temperatures will remain in the upper-60s. We could pick up between 1-2 inches of rain.
Monday – a tropical system currently offshore of Nicaragua will likely get picked up by this long cold front mentioned above. As it moves north along the frontal boundary, it will provide a reinforcing shot of energy to the dissipating low. Rain could still be ongoing at the outset of the day as a result, though it should taper off fairly quickly as this storm system moves off east. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with winds shifting to the north behind this storm system. Highs only in the upper-50s.
The warm spell we’ve enjoyed over the last week and longer will finally come to a close mid-week this week. Before that, we will receive a round of much needed moderate to heavy rain in conjunction with the approach and passage of a frontal system. Behind this front, as winds shift to the northwest, temperatures will cool into a more seasonable range for this time of year.
Rest of today – mild, partly sunny with clouds increasing, high temperatures in the low-70s.
Tuesday – we’ll still be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front. Temperatures remain mild in the low-70s, however, we should expect several rounds of moderate to heavy rain during the day. As the pressure gradient increases with proximity to an advancing cold front, stiff south winds in the 20 mph range with stronger gusts could occur. Rain continues and increases in intensity overnight. Windy conditions continue. Thunderstorms are possible with some of the strongest lift and convection close to the cold front. We could pick up 2-3 inches in places by the end of this event, as this long period of southerly winds will have ushered in a tropical airmass rich with moisture.
Wednesday – the cold front doesn’t actually push through until late Wednesday. Lingering showers could occur in the morning prior to the frontal passage. High temperatures should still be fairly mild, near 70°F.
Thursday – winds will shift to the north and west following the passage of this vigorous cold front. Behind the front, temperatuers will be about 10°F cooler, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low-60s with mostly sunny skies.
High pressure continues to exert its influence over the region through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will be quite mild and about 10°F above normal for this time of year. Ideal viewing conditions exist for the Orionid meteor showers.
Rest of today – sunny and mild with highs in the low-mid 70s despite northwest winds.
Saturday – similar setup as today. Sunny with highs in the low-mid 70s. Winds shift to the south as high pressure moves east and offshore.
Thanks to this persistent area of high pressure over the eastern US, we’ve a long bout of sunny and dry weather that continues through the weekend.
Sunday – mild and mostly sunny with high temperatures again in the low-mid 70s.
Monday – increasing clouds and slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll be in the warm sector ahead of an advancing, slow-moving frontal boundary. This feature will bring our next and much needed chance at precipitation into Tuesday.
Orionid meteor showers
These will be peaking over the weekend. Look towards the constellation Orion during the overnight hours with best conditions at around 2AM. Astronomers are expecting a peak of 15-20 meteors per minute radiating from this constellation. The meteors are actually fragments of Halley’s comet, which approaches perihelion (closest pass to the sun) next in 2061. If you’re lucky enough to get away from light pollution, you won’t have any moonlight to contend with either. Sky conditions will be ideal this weekend.
This weekend brings a mixed bag of weather, with some chances for rain, but warm temperatures as well. A stark contrast in temperatures marks the beginning of next week with some of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen up to this point in the season.
Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with seasonable highs in the mid-60s
Saturday – an inverted trough attached to a low pressure center well south of us rotates into the area and looks to remain stationary during the day. This could bring some scattered showers, however, this trough isn’t particularly strong and a washout isn’t anticipated. In fact, some sun could break through later in the day which could send temperatures higher than the forecast range in the mid-70s.
Sunday – temperatures continue pushing well above normal into the upper-70s and near 80°F. Warm air will be flowing in advance of a cold front that will drape across the country.
Monday – that cold front brings a chance of rain overnight into Monday and also ushers in much cooler air. High temperatures drop back into the low-60s. Overnight into Tuesday we might be seeing low temperatures in the upper-40s!
After a span of several weeks with minimal rainfall, we’re running into a week that will be defined by two low pressure systems and unsettled, rainy weather. Temperature will finally cool off from the summer-like warmth we’ve recently enjoyed to more seasonable, fall temperatures.
Rest of today – cloudy, periods of rain, some heavy at times. High temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Breezy with winds 15-20 mph. Remnants of Nate are passing through the area today, bringing tropical moisture and rain along with a deepening pressure gradient and the windy conditions.
Tuesday – best day of the first half of this week, mostly sunny with temperatures in the low-80s in the wake of the storm system passing today.
Wednesday – a backdoor cold front pushes through overnight into Wednesday. Winds will shift to the easterly direction and onshore with high pressure to the north. The result will be much cooler temperatures in the upper-60s or just about 70°F, which is about normal for this time of year. There will also be a chance for rain and increasingly cloudy skies.
Thursday – similar feel to Wednesday with clouds, chances for rain, easterly winds, but cooler with temperatures in the mid-60s.
The first half of this long weekend will continue the warm summer feel we’ve had since mid-week. Some much needed rain arrives Sunday going into next week in conjunction with the anticipated remnants of Tropical Storm Nate. This does literally mean that it will rain on the Columbus Day parade.
Rest of today – mostly sunny. Warm with highs around 80°F.
Saturday – partly sunny, not a bad day though with high temperatures in the low-80s. The stationary front depicted above that’s sitting close to the city will push north of us as a warm front. This will open the door to an increasingly tropical feel with higher dew points and more moisture in the air.
Sunday – mostly cloudy. Rain chances increasing in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible. Rain that develops could be heavy with tropical moisture flowing into the area. Still warm, with temperatures in the low-80s. An advancing cold front will push up precipitation partially fueled by Tropical Storm Nate (which is anticipated to make landfall on the New Orleans/Mississippi coastal area this weekend. This precipitation will be moving in on our area well in advance of the actual core of the remnants of Nate.
Monday (Columbus Day) – rain and thunderstorms as the bulk of the remnants of Nate move into the area. Rain heavy at times. Cooler with highs dipping into the mid-70s. With Nate approaching to the southwest of us, we should see more steady rain and clouds, keeping temperatures suppressed.
Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate is expected to strengthen into a minimal hurricane after it crosses near or over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the Gulf of Mexico. From that point, it’s expected to accelerate towards the Gulf Coast and make landfall in the vicinity of New Orleans, the Mississippi Delta and coastal Mississippi. Even though this storm will pale in comparison to Irma and Maria, it has already claimed 20 lives in Central America due to heavy rains and flooding.
October gets started with a decidedly fall feel, but temperatures do warm up later in the week before returning back to normal over the weekend. High pressure is in control for basically the entire forecast period, resulting in sunny conditions each day.
Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures around normal about 70ºF.
Tuesday – a touch warmer, high temperatures in the low-mid 70s and sunny.
Wednesday – warming trend continues with high temperatures rising into the upper-70s as high pressure moves to the southeast. Sunny skies.
Thursday – summer returns briefly with high temperatures well into the 80s and sunny conditions again.
