A wet and windy Sunday gives way to a week of mild and drier conditions. Temperatures this week will range about 10F above normal. While not remotely close to the record-breaking highs set last week, this should still result in pleasant conditions. Dry weather should hold up until late in the week when our next chance for rain arrives.
Rest of today – decreasing clouds with high temperatures in the mid-50s.
Tuesday – sunny, high temperatures again in the mid-50s after a colder start to they day.
Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s as an area of high pressure continues to dictate sensible weather in the area.
Thursday – as this high pressure moves off to the east, increasing clouds will build ahead of the next storm system. Chances for rain will increase through the day with cooler temperatures in the upper-40s.
A wet and unsettled weekend is coming up for NYC after a week that saw record-breaking warmth and large temperature swings. Back-to-back mid-latitude cyclones with their attendant warm and cold fronts will move through the area bringing a cloudy, gloomy feel, and plenty of chances for rain.
Rest of today – multiple rounds of rain showers possible through the morning and afternoon hours ahead of a warm front advancing from the southwest. Rain chances diminishing after around 6PM this evening. Overcast otherwise with a high temperature in the low-40s.
Saturday – overnight temperatures warming due to warm advection ahead of that warm front. We’ll end up in the warm sector of the first of these two mid-latitude cyclones on Saturday with high temperatures rising into the mid-upper 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Some chance for a scattered shower more likely later in the day as some post-frontal rain develops with a cold front exiting to the east.
Sunday – slightly cooler, high temperatures in the upper-40s. Another cloudy day, with rain continuing from overnight Saturday as first a warm front then a cold front moves through with this second storm system.
Monday – finally a dry day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-50s after this chain of storms!
This holiday weekend will feature some wild swings in temperature. We’ll bookend the weekend with chances for rain, but in between, we may see some decent accumulating snow. So much for an early spring.
Rest of today (Lunar New Year) – the year of the dog arrives on a cloudy day with temperatures dropping through the course of the day on the heels of a couple cold fronts pushing through. We have a break in the rain right now, but more will arrive later in the day. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front and increase in speed, bringing in a much colder air mass that will set the stage for snow on Saturday.
Saturday – much colder with temperatures topping out around 40°F after a very cold start. Increasing clouds as an area of low pressure developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast brings us the chance for accumulating snow. This coastal storm should be fairly fast mover, but forecasters think it will still bring enough precipitation to warrant a winter storm watch. The official forecasts are calling for a range of 4-8″ overnight Saturday into Sunday. Based on current forecast ensembles, I’m inclined to side with the lower end of that range and call for 4″ at best. As usual, the exact timing and track of this storm could still change a bit before the actual event. A slightly slower or slightly more northerly track would result in higher totals, and conversely a faster and more southerly track would result in only minor accumulations.
Sunday – warmer with high temperatures in the mid-40s and decreasing clouds. Whatever snow we get will begin to melt almost immediately.
Monday (President’s Day) – warmer still with high temperatures in the low-50s and chances for rain as a warm front approaches.
After a soaking rain this weekend, we start the week off with cooler, drier conditions. Temperatures ramp up going into mid-week before the next chance for precipitation hits us Thursday.
Rest of today – decreasing clouds as high pressure builds behind the cold front that passed through earlier today. High temperatures in the low-40s dropping through the course of the day.
Tuesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-30s.
Wednesday – milder with high temperatures in the upper-40s and increasing clouds late in the day.
Thursday – a surge of warm air ahead of the next cold front to hit the area will raise temperatures well into the 50s, possibly as high as 60°F but with a chance for showers and mostly cloudy skies.
Cold start to this weekend gives way to a milder feel but a soaker of a day Sunday. Going into next week, much of the week will see above average temperatures.
Rest of today – increasing low-level clouds associated with warm air advecting from the south ahead of a warm front. Temperatures still on the cool side during the day with high temperatures in the mid-30s.
Saturday – overnight temperatures actually start to rise as warm advection really takes hold. High temperatures will substantially warmer near 50°F. Cloudy with increasing chances for rain as a cold front approaches from the west.
Sunday – the cold front above will stall in our vicinity, with tropical moisture surging along this frontal boundary. This will result in multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.
Monday – cooler but still decent with decreasing clouds and high temperatures in the mid-40s.
The groundhogs have spoken. Our own Staten Island Chuck predicts an early spring, while his more famous counterpart Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter. Well, it certainly won’t feel like spring this coming weekend as we endure chilly conditions today and tomorrow before a slight warm up with a chance for precipitation Sunday.
Rest of today – clear, but windy with a northwest breeze 20-25 mph range. This will quickly sweep in much colder Arctic air via cold advection, and as a result temperatures will drop through the day from a high around 30°F.
Saturday – with overnight lows dropping into the teens, Saturday will likewise be a cold day with high temperatures only reaching around 30°F. Clouds will increase as the warm front associated with the next area of low pressure to hit the area moves in late in the day.
Sunday – with the warm front passing over us, winds turn to the southwest and warm advection will result in temperatures warming overnight into Sunday when high temperatures are expected to reach the low-40s. Precipitation in association with the cold front attached to the low pressure below will likely begin as all snow in the city before transitioning to a rain/snow mix or all rain with temperatures rising well above freezing. Little to no snow accumulation is expected – but the journey to and back from various Super Bowl related festivities will be messy.
Monday – things dry out and conditions improve as temperatures top out in the upper-30s with partly cloudy skies.
Chuck’s Wrong, Phil’s Right
Unfortunately for those of you who like warmer weather, Staten Island Chuck’s prediction of an early spring is likely to be off the mark. A progressive series of storm systems and an oscillating jet stream will bring multiple bouts of cold weather to the area before the winter’s out. Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of 33% chance for below normal temperatures in their monthly outlook.
