Monthly Archives: May 2020

NYC Weather Update – May 18, 2020

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While it looked earlier this weekend that this would be a rainy week, it now appears that strong high pressure will keep two storm systems largely at bay. One of these will be the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that formed this weekend. The tradeoff is that this high of Canadian origin will bring cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s. This pattern breaks up by late this week, yielding warmer temperatures in the 70s by this weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy though no rain expected with high temperatures around 70ºF. Clouds from the two storm systems below will remain throughout the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s as skies gradually clear.

In this GOES geocolor visible satellite loop, you can clearly see two centers of circulation – one over the Midwest associated with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone, and one over the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – high pressure continues building, and blocks the northward and northeastward progress of both storms. Temperatures cool into the mid-60s despite more sun with northeasterly onshore winds. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to have undergone extratropical transition by this point, and potentially strengthened due to baroclinic forcing. The proximity of this storm to the high pressure will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in stronger winds during the day Tuesday. Overnight around 50ºF.

Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, producing sunny skies. High temperatures still cooler than normal in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 23-27: temperatures appear ready to rebound going into this weekend to above normal levels.

Thursday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s still. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.

NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2020

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Record setting cold this weekend that led to rare May snows will feel like another life time by the end of this week when temperatures will soar to near or above 80ºF. A general warming trend will take place until then, bookended by rain chances today and Friday due to a couple passing storms.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with hig temperatures in the upper-50s. A fast moving storm could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s as skies clear.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – sunny high pressure building, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure steadily moves east, bringing another day of sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 16-20, finally, it looks like we get a break from below normal temperatures!

Thursday – high temperatures warm into the mid-60s with high pressure still in control giving us mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 1, 2020

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April ended with another stormy week with plenty of rain. May starts of grey Friday, followed by a spectacular day Saturday. Rain enters the picture again Sunday. Behind this next storm system, things will cool off again. This will lead temperatures to continue their cool trend throughout most of next week. During this period high temperatures will range at least 5ºF below the upper-60s that are normal for this time of the year.

Rest of today – the slow moving storm that began impacting us yesterday continues to influence weather today. Scattered showers wrapping around the backside of the low responsible for this storm could still occur. Temperatures should generally be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies otherwise. Overnight lows in the low-50s as the storm finally exits.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this storm, bringing the best day of the frorecast period with high temperatures expected to top out around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Sunday – just like last weekend, the sunny, dry weather barely lasts before the next storm moves in. This will be a weaker, and faster moving storm so rain should be on the lighter side. Currently expecting most of the day Sunday to be dry with clouds building and high temperatures still warm in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Monday – once this low clears our region, winds shift to the north and a cooler air mass works its way in. Skies clear with temperatures falling back the low-60s. Overnight lows only in the upper-40s. This cool trend looks set to continue for the duration of next week. Though after a week with high temperatures in the 50s, the low-60s looks pretty good.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 6-10. Below average temperatures are indicated as very likely for much of the Eastern US
  • This temperature trend is borne out in the GFS models 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies. This chart is valid for 8AM Tuesday