Good news to report regarding Hurricane Joaquin – since yesterday, forecast models have arrived at a much clearer consensus regarding the track of Joaquin once it leaves the Bahamas – and the resulting forecast track takes it well east of the US East Coast.
This means we will luckily miss any severe impacts from a landfalling tropical cyclone. However, with Joaquin to the south and a ridge of high pressure to the north, continuous onshore northeasterly winds will still present moderate coastal flooding issues. Temperatures will likewise remain cool under the clouds and onshore flow, with rain expected to continue from today until Saturday. Lingering showers may persists on Sunday.
We’ve certainly seen plenty of rain during the month of June, yet the NYC region remains in an area of moderate drought as of last Thursday. However, this does not reflect the rain that fell overnight Sunday into Monday. After a gloomy start to the week, we get a break of decent weather tomorrow, before another possible round of rain Thursday. The week ends with some drying out and improving conditions.
Rest of today – highs should top out in the upper-70s to around 80 today, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Storms have already formed to our west over northeastern Pennsylvania, but there is a stabilizing marine air layer over NYC and points east, so these storms may yet break apart before reaching us.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 1PM today.
Wednesday – skies will clear rapidly overnight and lead to a sunny, dry, and pleasant day on Wednesday. Highs should be near 80. The high pressure creating these pleasant conditions will not stay around long, as another warm front approaches from the west.
Thursday – will look a lot like today, with mostly cloudy skies, and a potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a warm front nears the region. Highs will be a bit cooler in the mid-70s with the influence of clouds and a southeasterly flow off the ocean ahead of the warm front.
Friday – the warm front from Thursday is followed quickly by a cold front passing Friday morning. Behind this, high pressure takes control and brings decent weather for the first half of the weekend. Highs Friday should be in the low-80s with clouds and sun.
Tropical Storm Bill
Over the weekend, a disturbance organized over the western Gulf of Mexico, and by last night it had consolidated and intensified enough to be designated the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s second named tropical cyclone – Tropical Storm Bill. Bill will be making landfall imminently in Texas as a moderate strength tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Bill about to make landfall on the central Texas Gulf Coast
However, for people living in the path of Bill, it is not the wind but rather the potential for dangerous flash flooding that is the primary concern with this storm. Bill is forecast to bring as much as 10″ of rain over the next few days to parts of Texas, and upwards of 6″ for a wide swath of Oklahoma and Missouri. As you may recall, some of these areas were the scene of deadly flooding just a few weeks back, and the arrival of a rainmaker like Bill is most unwelcome for these areas that are still in the midst of recovering. Moisture from Bill will eventually work its way into our region, but in a much less intense way.
Yesterday, portions of our area got some much needed rain from a round of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough. Today, we get another shot at rain and thunderstorms as the primary cold front actually pushes through. Behind that front, things cool off and dry out for Friday, before the humidity returns on Saturday. Things should stay dry Saturday, but we will see a more substantial chance at widespread rainfall Sunday with the passage of another cold front. Also of note, the National Hurricane Center released its outlook for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, calling for a below normal season.
Rest of today – clouds give way to sun with warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon. The atmospheric setup today is a bit more favorable to showers and thunderstorms being able to persist into NYC and western Long Island, unlike yesterday when these showers essentially died out as they hit the stable marine air layer near the coast. The exact location of where storms form and move into will still be tricky to pinpoint even at this time.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output simulated radar for 3PM EST today.
Friday – once the frontal boundary passes through later today, it will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass for Friday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-upper 70s (still 5-10ºF above normal) under sunny skies.
Saturday – temperatures will be slightly warmer in the low-80s on Saturday with an increase in humidity as well. There could be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms later in the day as well.
Sunday – another cold front passes through the region Sunday, bringing with it the chance for more substantial and widespread showers. Temperatures will also cool off to around normal, in the low-mid 70s.
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
The National Hurricane Center released its initial outlook for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season that officially starts on June 1st. As you’ll see from the graphic below, forecasters are calling for a below normal season with 6-11 named storms (tropical storms with sustained winds greater than 39mph). Of these named storms, forecasters think 3-6 have a chance to intensify into hurricanes (maximum sustained winds greater than 74mph), and of those hurricanes 0-2 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher, maximum sustained winds greater than 111mph).
The primary reason for the 70% probability of a below normal season is the disruptive effect of El Niño in the Eastern Pacific, which is known to alter the pressure and air currents over the tropical Atlantic, dampening the formation of hurricanes. On the other hand, the above average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific associated with El Niño are expected to induce an above average Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon season. Read the full statement from the NHC here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html
A downright summer-like stretch of weather that started this week will get mirrored again towards the end of this week and going into next week. After clearing out clouds today, the remainder of this week should see dry and sunnier weather with highs in the mid-upper 70s. This weekend, we are looking at the possibility of temperatures near 80, nearly 15º above normal. We also have what could turn into the 2015 season’s first tropical depression/storm churning up off the coast of Florida now.
Rest of today – a very slow-moving, largely stationary front pushed through last night, but is still sitting in our vicinity. Along this front, remnants of more organized convective activity will be able to slide east during this afternoon and evening. While the chances are not high, there could still be an occasional shower during the latter half of today, high temperatures will be somewhat subdued around 70 with the clouds in place.
Thursday – clouds will clear out tomorrow and we should have a sunny day with temperatures in the mid-70s.
Friday – a repeat of Thursday, with mostly sunny skies and highs again in the mid-70s.
Saturday – increasing cloud cover, but should still be a pleasant day with temperatures in the upper 70s.
Sandwiched between rain to our south and to our west, but our weather should still remain dry this weekend.
Sunday – warm and pleasant with a high near 80.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for next week – still looks like we’ll be getting warmer than normal temps
First Tropical System of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
As I write this, a low pressure system is building up steadily off the east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center puts the odds of this system organizing sufficiently to become the first named tropical depression, subtropical, or tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Even if this storm does become the first named tropical system, it is unlikely to do much damage as it will have very little time over open water to gain strength before it is forecast to make landfall over the Carolinas later. The most noticeable impact from this storm would be the rain it generates.
