Good news to report regarding Hurricane Joaquin – since yesterday, forecast models have arrived at a much clearer consensus regarding the track of Joaquin once it leaves the Bahamas – and the resulting forecast track takes it well east of the US East Coast.
This means we will luckily miss any severe impacts from a landfalling tropical cyclone. However, with Joaquin to the south and a ridge of high pressure to the north, continuous onshore northeasterly winds will still present moderate coastal flooding issues. Temperatures will likewise remain cool under the clouds and onshore flow, with rain expected to continue from today until Saturday. Lingering showers may persists on Sunday.
This week of damp, grey weather is leading up to a weekend when the uncertain future of Hurricane Joaquin may have an enormous impact on our weather. Since its formation earlier this week, Hurricane Joaquin has intensified steadily into a Category 3 storm currently spinning around the Bahamas. Joaquin’s future is still highly uncertain, and there’s been considerable spread between major forecast models as to where the storm will be at the end of the weekend. At this point, a landfall in the NYC region late this weekend is not out of the question.
Rest of today – cloudy and cool with high temperatures only in the mid-60s.
Friday – rain at times, windy and raw, with northeast winds in the 20-25mph range. It will feel like November with highs only in the mid-50s.
Saturday – similar to Friday in terms of sensible weather, with highs only in the upper-50s.
Sunday – this is where things get interesting depending on the track of Hurricane Joaquin. Depending on how closely Joaquin comes to hitting us, we could be looking at tropical storm conditions building through the day. If, on the other hand, it recurves out to sea, Sunday could be the best day of the weekend.
The Big Question: Where’s Joaquin Going?
Currently, Joaquin is a Category 3 storm over the Bahamas, with noticeable central eye, and symmetrical outflow in satellite images. Joaquin has been moving southwest along the edge of a subtropical ridge. Joaquin is an environment favorable for continued intensification, sitting over some very warm water with moderate wind shear.
Forecast Track
Over the last couple of days, forecast models have been set in basically two camps, one curving Joaquin northwest into North Carolina or Virginia. The other camp continues to point to a recurvature of Joaquin. Given the large spread between the models, National Hurricane Center forecasters have been emphatic about the degree of uncertainty with the track forecast up to this point.
Some major forecast models’ track forecasts for JoaquinOfficial NHC track forecast
Potential Impacts
Regardless of the landfall point for Joaquin, it will be contributing to a plume of tropical moisture leading to widespread heavy rainfall over a large portion of the east coast.
With the persistent northeast winds ahead of the northward advancing Joaquin, coastal flooding is also likely to take place in flood prone areas.
