Tag Archives: northeast drought

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 25, 2015

Climate, Drought, NYC, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , ,

Missed a couple updates the last week or so. The weather has been fairly uneventful during this stretch, with the second week of September featuring much above temperatures, while this past week has been more seasonable with respect to temperatures. This weekend, the pleasant, fall-like weather continues, with Saturday being the better half of the weekend.

Rest of today – high clouds have decreased in coverage somewhat since earlier this morning, but with an area of low pressure off the Southeastern US edging northward, cloud coverage may increase again later today. There’s also an onshore flow pattern with wind coming from the northeast, which will keep high temperatures suppressed in the low-70s.

Saturday – Canadian high pressure builds north of us, keeping the area of disturbed weather that’s moving northward from the Southeast at bay. This should result in a mostly sunny day. However, with the high pressure center to the north, onshore winds will continue from the northeast, leading to high temperatures again only in the low-70s.

gfs_namer_021_1000_850_thick

Sunday – the high pressure above will move southeast offshore of New England by the end of the day Sunday. With the high out of the way, the low pressure to its south will be able to develop again. This should yield a mostly cloudy day with the possibility for rain later in the evening hours. High temperatures remain on the cool side in the low-70s.

Monday – the chance for rain increases Monday with the high pressure completely out of the picture and low pressure moving in. This rain is much needed as a moderate drought persists in the NYC region (in particular Long Island). High temperatures will be warmer with winds from the southwest, temperatures may approach 80.gfs_namer_066_1000_850_thick

Regional Drought Worsens

The tradeoff for the long stretch of dry and pleasant weather is that moderate drought conditions have returned to areas which had been close to being drought-free last month. Moderate drought has redeveloped over much of the NYC metro area, while a persistent drought has continued to affect eastern Long Island. In fact, since August, the percentage of New York State affected by moderate drought has more than doubled.

20150922_NY_trd

NYC Weather Update – May 26, 2015

Climate, Drought, NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, , , , , , , , , , , ,

It certainly does feel as though Memorial Day 2015 has been the unofficial start of summer, given the warm and humid temperatures we’ve had from Sunday onwards. The warm, late-June like temperature trend continues through mid-week, with some chance for thunderstorms. Rain in any form would be most welcome, given that the region has been placed in a region of moderate drought as of this week.

Rest of today – the Bermuda high, more typical of mid-summer, brings us very warm and humid high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, more than 15ºF above average for this time of year. If you like the heat, go out and enjoy it because we might see showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

Wednesday – a weak cold front approaches from the west, bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The critical question for NYC will be how long organized storms can stay together as they enter into influence of cooler, maritime air nearer to the coast. Temperatures will remain warm in the low-mid 80s with clouds and some breaks of sun. As is generally the case in these setups, the more sun we can get in the afternoon ahead of the frontal bou

nam-hires_namer_036_sim_reflectivity
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for 8PM EST Wednesday

Thursday – we get another shot at thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs likely topping out around 80 under mostly cloudy skies.

 

Moderate Drought for the Region Forecast to Persist

We’ve had an remarkable run of sunny, rain-free days, and above average temperatures for much of May (and indeed even going back a couple of months), and while that’s translated to pleasant weather for outdoor activities, it also has meant that we’ve entered into a stretch of moderate drought. We had a stretch of no rain for 23 consecutive days, earlier this month, which definitely didn’t help things. According to the USDA Drought Monitor, Central Park recorded 7.12″ of rain from March 1st through May 19th, which is only about 63% of average for this time of year.

20150519_northeast_trd

 

While we are only in the lowest tier of drought and were just added to this category this week, these drought conditions bear watching. We hope to get some rain out of this week, and it looks like more storms are on the way this weekend, however, the drought forecast for our region looks to have the drought persist through this summer.

season_drought