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NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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After a rainy, cool weekend, temperatures will rebound into the low-80s as high pressure takes over. This will bring about a week of pleasant, mostly dry weather, with plenty of sun all the way through end of the week. Further afield, we’re watching the tropics for 2 possible tropical storms brewing.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with some potential for a scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region later this evening. Timing of these storms hitting the area appears to be around 8-10PM.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Tuesday
  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar valid at 9:30PM tonight

Tuesday – behind this cold front, westerly downsloping winds will actually help temperatures rebound into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper-60s.

Thursday – another great day with lots of sun and highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Watching the tropics

Way out in the tropical Atlantic, we have two tropical waves that the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on. These two waves could develop into the 12th and 13th named storms of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which thus far has been breaking records for the fastest forming named storms, beating out the horrific 2005 season that produced Katrina, Wilma, and some storms that had Greek alphabet names.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 27, 2020

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Possibly record-breaking heat to start off the week with highs in the upper-90s Monday. Tuesday will have slightly cooler temps but similar heat index due to high humidity. This could allow for some strong thunderstorms with the weak cold front passage. This frontal boundary stalls out and becomes stationary. Cooler, drier air finally arrives later this week past.

Rest of today – sunny and hot with high temperatures in the upper-90s. Record breaking highs are possible across the region with strong 850 mb temperature anomalies above the surface. Overnight lows in the upper-70s could break some records for highest minimum temperatures.

  • GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Monday
  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday.

Tuesday – although temperatures are overall expected to be cooler in the low-90s with more clouds, an increase in humidity will result in a heat index similar to Monday at or above 100ºF. A weak cold front moves through the region Tuesday evening and this could bring about a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday – a bit cooler with high temperatures around 90ºF. Overnight lows continue to be uncomfortable in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures remain warm in the low-90s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking ahead, above average warmth is still possible next week, even though we are expecting a break from the heat during the weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 5, 2020

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A hot, humid, and stormy start to the week with highs in the low-90s. A backdoor cold front moves through, granting a reprieve from heat mid-week with highs cooling off to the mid-80s Tuesday. The heat comes back after this. Later this week, and into the weekend, a storm with possible tropical characteristics could bring heavy rain to the region.

Rest of today – sunny to start with highs quickly climbing into the low-90s. Clouds increase later this afternoon. A shortwave trough will spark the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, around 4PM. These storms could bring heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances quickly dying off.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – a backdoor cold front will push through overnight. The onshore flow from the northeast behind this front should result in mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms could still impact the area in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front will return north as a warm front Wednesday. Temperatures will remain stable with high temperatures in the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible in the afternoon hours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – high temperatures rebound into the upper-80s and low-90s possibly with fewer clouds as high pressure briefly builds in. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Looking towards the end of the week, we’ll be monitoring the progress of a low pressure center that the National Hurricane Center has identified as having the potential to develop tropical characteristics. This storm could bring some heavy rain this weekend.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 29, 2020

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An upper low lingering over the Northeast results in unsettled weather to start this week. With the dynamics brought on by this upper low, there will be chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day esp. in the afternoon. High temperatures during this period should be generally in the low-80s. Luckily, this pattern should break in time for the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Rest of today – sunny with highs in the upper-80s to start. Chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some of these thunderstorms could approach severe limits though we aren’t anticipating widespread severe weather today. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Monday.

Tuesday – more clouds resulting in cooler highs in the low-80s. Closed upper and surface lows over the northeast will provide for ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Coverage should again be scattered in nature. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – similar day to Tuesday with highs in the low-80s, mostly cloudy with chances for showers and thunderstorms yet again. The closed upper low referenced above and visible in the graphic below will provide for a cold pool that should enhance lapse rates and increase chances for isolated severe thunderstorms. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

GFS model 500 mb temperature, height, and winds, valid for 2PM Wednesday.

Thursday – the nagging upper and surface lows will finally move off to the east. This should result in better conditions with sunny skies and no tangible risk for rain and thunderstorms. High temperatures should rebound into the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 22, 2020

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The first official week of summer brings us warm temperatures in the upper-80s (low-90s interior). Early in the week, there will be chances each day for scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly over inland areas. South facing shorelines should enjoy cooler temperatures with the possibility of sea breezes developign. A cold front passes Wednesday, bringing chances for more organized precipitation. Behind this, skies should clear up but temps remain warm.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 90ºF. Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Coverage would be spotty at best but with plenty of moisture available, any storms could produce heavy rain. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Tuesday.

Tuesday – similar to today, with high temperatures peaking near 90ºF and mostly sunny skies to start, then more clouds and some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Wednesday – a cold front approaches from the west and brings us a better chance for organized showers and thunderstorms later in the day. These storms may be weakening as they hit the area if they arrive late in the day with sunlight diminishing. High temperatures again around 90ºF. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS model 500 mb height, relative velocity, valid for 2PM Thursday.

Thursday – behind the cold front, skies should clear up as high pressure builds. However, temperatures will remain warm in the mid-80s with downsloping westerly winds. Overnight lows around 70ºF.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 8, 2020

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High pressure will be the main story this week, providing plenty of sun and summery weather. A chance for rain comes later with the extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal. The timing of this is rain not entirely certain, but it looks like this will be Thursday for now. Temperatures this week should be ranging slightly above normal with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures around 80ºF. Just a beautiful day with comfortable temperatures and low humidity. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – temperatures warm up into the mid-80s with lots of sun as the high pressure center shifts gradually off to the southeast and we see southerly flow take hold. Humidity still overall not that bad, so it shouldn’t feel muggy. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – high temperatures back down into the low-80s though clouds could be on the increase. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances possibly increasing.

GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Cristobal the morning of June 8, 2020, after it made landfall as a tropical storm this weekend over Louisiana

Thursday – a cold front associated with the extratropical remnants of Tropical Depression Cristobal could bring some rain and thunderstorms to the area. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 2, 2020

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A stretch of slightly above normal temperatures in the low-80s is in store for us as we kick off the month of June. Temperatures and humidity will pick up noticeably tomorrow with a warm front passing through. Some thunderstorms are possible with the trailing cold front. Weather improves Thursday then rain chances increase again later in the week. The tropics have been active, too, with Tropical Depression Three forming in the Bay of Campeche.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with a chance of showers developing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday.

Wednesday – rain chances continue into the day Wednesday with a warm front passing through early in the day. Temperatures will warm up into the low-80s in response to southerly flow. Some break in the clouds possible between the warm front and a trailing cold front. Clouds increase again later with this cold front. Some thunderstorms could pop up. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances diminishing and clouds clearing.

Thursday – high pressure briefly builds in with temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances increasing again as another frontal system moves in.

Friday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

In the tropics

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be an active one, and is living up to this forecast so far. A tropical depression formed yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, and if it organizes into a named tropical storm before Thursday, it will break a record for the earliest time for a third named storm to form. For now, this storm poses little risk for the US, but will bring heavy rain to a wide swath of southeastern Mexico and Central America. Later in the forecast period, this storm could track out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf Coast.

GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche this morning.

NYC Weather Update – May 18, 2020

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While it looked earlier this weekend that this would be a rainy week, it now appears that strong high pressure will keep two storm systems largely at bay. One of these will be the post-tropical remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur that formed this weekend. The tradeoff is that this high of Canadian origin will bring cooler than normal temperatures in the 60s. This pattern breaks up by late this week, yielding warmer temperatures in the 70s by this weekend.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy though no rain expected with high temperatures around 70ºF. Clouds from the two storm systems below will remain throughout the day. Overnight lows in the mid-50s as skies gradually clear.

In this GOES geocolor visible satellite loop, you can clearly see two centers of circulation – one over the Midwest associated with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone, and one over the Atlantic – Tropical Storm Arthur.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – high pressure continues building, and blocks the northward and northeastward progress of both storms. Temperatures cool into the mid-60s despite more sun with northeasterly onshore winds. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to have undergone extratropical transition by this point, and potentially strengthened due to baroclinic forcing. The proximity of this storm to the high pressure will produce a tight pressure gradient resulting in stronger winds during the day Tuesday. Overnight around 50ºF.

Wednesday – high pressure remains in place, producing sunny skies. High temperatures still cooler than normal in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 23-27: temperatures appear ready to rebound going into this weekend to above normal levels.

Thursday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s still. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2020

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Record setting cold this weekend that led to rare May snows will feel like another life time by the end of this week when temperatures will soar to near or above 80ºF. A general warming trend will take place until then, bookended by rain chances today and Friday due to a couple passing storms.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with hig temperatures in the upper-50s. A fast moving storm could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s as skies clear.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – sunny high pressure building, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure steadily moves east, bringing another day of sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 16-20, finally, it looks like we get a break from below normal temperatures!

Thursday – high temperatures warm into the mid-60s with high pressure still in control giving us mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 27, 2020

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An active weather pattern brings yet another week of cool, rainy weather. Tuesday will be the only day with sunny skies and near normal temperatures with high pressure briefly building in. Otherwise, a couple slow moving storms will bring clouds and rain the rest of the week. This will result in temperatures largely running below seasonal averages. I suppose that’s some incentive for people to stay safe and quarantine at home?

Rest of today – early rain chances should diminish steadily. High temperatures cool, only around 50ºF under the influence of northerly flow as the slow moving coastal storm that impacted us yesterday and today moves off to the northeast. Clouds should start to diminish later in the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

NAM output forecast cloud cover for 11AM Tuesday

Tuesday – we should see a brief window of sunny skies and dry weather as high pressure builds and passes over for the day. This break in rainy weather should allow temperatures to climb into the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – the reprieve from dreary conditions barely lasts a day as yet another storm system takes aim at the area. With the high pressure Tuesday slow to move east, this next storm will be similarly as slow moving as this past weekend’s storm. The result for Wednesday, even if we don’t get too much in the way of rain, will be cloudy conditions and cool, southeasterly onshore flow ahead of an advancing warm front. This will cause temperatures to cool into the mid-50s. Overnight lows barely budge, and hover around 50ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Thursday

Thursday – the second storm of the week hits with steady rain and southeasterly onshore breezes. Warm advection could help temperatures stay slightly above 60ºF, with overnight lows in the low-50s.