Tag Archives: pollution

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 11, 2015

NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.

Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.

In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.
Air quality forecast for today
Air quality forecast for today

Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.

Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.

Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gfs_namer_084_1000_850_thick

 

Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.

Increased Pollution in Asia = Stronger Pacific Storms

Climate, Rain, Storms, , , , , , ,
pollution in china
Buildings in Lianyungang, China, are shrouded in smog on December 8, 2013. Aerosol pollution from Asia is likely leading to stronger cyclones in the Pacific, more precipitation, and warming temperatures at the North Pole. – National Geographic

A recently published study a by a Texas A&M team led by professor of atmospheric sciences Renyi Zhang points to a possible link between increased air pollution from Asian sources and stronger Pacific storms. There are implications for global climate, including impacts on El Niño. Stronger Pacific storms would lead to increased precipitation in places like the Pacific Northwest.

At its most basic level, the theory behind this study is a fundamental to atmospheric science and is well understood. Water vapor that makes up clouds first need condensation nuclei, such as salt, dust, or in this case, pollutants in order to coalesce around and form clouds. An increase in the number of available condensation nuclei should in theory lead to more robust cloud growth, which allows for more energy to be released into the atmosphere through the latent heat of condensation. This in turn will allow for stronger convective clouds, thunderstorms, and cyclonic storms.