If you’re getting ready to venture out this evening make sure to bring an umbrella and wear your rain gear as a heavy rain event is in store for the New York City area. This will be an extended rainfall event leading into Monday. temperatures today will peak at around 50, near normal. The heaviest rain will be falling from approximately 8 p.m. tonight into the overnight hours. Winds will be at around 25-35 mph. Parts of the area are forecast to receive between 1.5″-3″ of rain in the next 48 hours, which could lead to some minor flooding in poor drainage urban areas and small creeks.

So, in general expect conditions to gradually deteriorate through the day and the intensity of rain to pick up. Rain will continue on Sunday, albeit with diminished intensity. Temperatures will hold steady around 50.

Refer to the diagram below, which represents the North American models guidance for this evening at around 8 p.m. Note the areas of blue and bright blue that correspond to rainfall rates anywhere between .75″ to 1.5″ per hour.

Rain will diminish by Monday afternoon as the low pressure center responsible for the heaviest rains moves off to the northeast.

High pressure will move in Tuesday, with a weak cold front moving through later Tuesday. This frontal boundary is not forecast to produce any precipitation. Ahead of this frontal system, we’ll see temperatures rebound to seasonal levels in the mid-upper 50s and partly cloudy skies. Wednesday will likewise be a seasonable day with mild temps near 60.

Light rain is possible Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of next week, but it’s much to early to be certain. GFS model also shows a possible coastal storm for next Tuesday.