Tag Archives: severe weather

NYC Weather Update – Jul 25, 2016

July 25, 2016Climate, Drought, NYC, Rain, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weekendcold front, drought, new york city severe weather, new york city weather, new york city wx, nyc severe weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, thunderstorms, weatherLei Zhao

Recent weather headlines have been dominated by the heat. This will continue through most of the week, with relief not really in sight until Friday. There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms today, but otherwise, there will be little in the way of rain.

Rest of today – mostly sunny, hot, with highs in the mid-90s. Humidity will make it feel like the lower-100s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk for severe weather today. This relates to what appear to be multiple line segments of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing ahead of a weak cold front that look to impact the area during the PM rush.

Tuesday – with the weak cold front above passing through, there will be some drop in humidity. However, temperatures are still expected to rise into the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday – temperatures finally start to back off the mid-90s into the low-90s under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday – increasing clouds, high near 90ºF.

Drought Continues to Grip the Northeast

Drought continues to worsen and is now prevalent in many parts of the Northeast, with areas in Western New York and Massachusetts particularly hard hit.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 21, 2016

July 21, 2016Climate, NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, high pressure, new york city weekend weather, nyc weather, nyc weekend weather, severe weather, severe wx, thunderstorms, tstorms, warm front, weatherLei Zhao

This weekend’s weather can be summed up in one word: hot. In fact, if current forecasts hold, this upcoming stretch may see our first extended 90ºF+ heat wave. High temperatures don’t appear likely to drop below 90ºF until next Wednesday. During that time, the humidity will actually increase until a cold front breaks through late Tuesday. This will be another prime beach/upstate getaway weekend.

Rest of today – sunny with a high around 90ºF.

Friday – mostly sunny, slightly warmer with a high in the low-90s. There is a chance for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms late Friday with the passage of a cold front. Any relief from heat that this front and storms associated with it bring will be short-lived.

Saturday – high pressure quickly returns and temperatures continue to rise along with it. Highs are expected in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

Sunday – a bit cooler, but humidity will increase as a warm front pushes through late on Sunday. High temperatures in the low-90s.

Monday – showers and thunderstorms are possible later Monday preceding a cold front that is forecast to pass on Tuesday. Highs will remain in the low-90s.

Above Average Temperatures to Stick Around

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day temperature outlook continues to call for above normal temperatures. The heat is here to stay.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 18, 2016

July 18, 2016NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Updatecold front, high pressure, new york city weather, nyc weather, rain, severe weather, severe wx, thunderstorms, weatherLei Zhao

This week will be bookended by hot weather, with a break from the heat forecast right in the middle. The only chance for rain during this stretch will be later this afternoon and into the early evening hours.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the region under a slight risk of severe weather today as a cold front approaches. As usual, areas north and west of the city are more likely to experience organized convective activity, since there will be a stabilizing influence near the coast from the marine air layer. Best timing would appear to be in the evening rush, when a couple lines of thunderstorms could affect the area. High temperatures will reach into the low-mid 90s before this under mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday – with the passage of the the cold front above, there will be a noticeable change in the humidity level for Tuesday. Despite high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, it will feel considerably more comfortable with the drier air in place.

Wednesday – an area of high pressure behind the cold front will take over for the latter portion of the week. On Wednesday, it will be set up just to our southwest, which will enable cooler winds from the north to bring a brief respite from the heat. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the low-mid 80s.

Thursday – as the high pressure moves off to the east, winds will turn to the west and southwest, and there will be a corresponding increase in high temperatures into the mid-upper 80s again as warmer air returns.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 14, 2016

July 14, 2016NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendcold front, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, severe weather, thunderstorms, weatherLei Zhao

It will be a steamy, hot end to the week before the temperatures cool down a little and we get to enjoy a weekend of idyllic summer weather. Some potential for severe thunderstorms exists Thursday. A scattered thunderstorm chance also exists Friday and Saturday night, but the days look dry.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, hot, humid, with high temperatures in the upper-80s to near 90ºF. A strong to severe thunderstorm is possible this afternoon, particularly in areas north of the city. If we do get clipped by storms in the city, we’ll be on the very southern periphery of the stronger storms, so it doesn’t seem all that likely we’ll see severe weather. Best timing for storms will be in the 3-6PM range.

Friday – with more sun, Friday is expected to be even hotter than today with highs in the low-mid 90s.

Saturday – even though a cold front will finally pass through Friday, the frontal passage will not bring relief from the heat Friday (the frontal boundary separates two airmasses of disparate dewpoints, and not temperatures). Temperatures will hold in the upper-80s to 90ºF Saturday with mostly sunny skies. It will be an ideal day for heading to the beach as there should be a sea breeze on south-facing shores resulting in 5ºF cooler temperatures.

Sunday – warm, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and partly sunny skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 10, 2016

June 10, 2016NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekendhigh pressure, new york city weather, new york city weekend weather, nyc weather, nyc weekend wx, severe weather, thunderstorms, tstorms, warm front, weatherLei Zhao

We’ve had a week of fairly mixed weather, with some days that saw thunderstorms, but a fair mix of sunny and dry conditions also. This weekend, we get another mixed bag, with a possibility of thunderstorms approaching severe limits Saturday, and a great day on Sunday. Looking ahead, high pressure begins to dominate and will ensure dry weather for the coming week.

Rest of today – we’ve hit our high in the mid-upper 70s, and we’ll continue to have sunny weather, and it’ll be a pleasant night with lows in the upper-50s to around 60ºF.

Saturday – the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday. We could see some thunderstorms rumble through in the afternoon hours as a warm front pushes in from the west, however, they will be weakening as they approach more stable air near the coast, so it’s possible these storms fizzle out before they reach the city. These storms will be moving from northeast to southeast from the interior of Upstate New York. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs in the upper-70s.

Sunday – winds pick up behind the passage of the warm front mentioned above. Temperatures also warm up into the low-80s with sunny skies.

Monday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. High pressure begins to take control over our weather.

Tuesday – much the same as Monday, pleasant, mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper-70s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 26, 2016

April 26, 2016Climate, NYC, Severe Weather, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Updateclimate, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, severe wx, thunderstorms, tstormsLei Zhao

There is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today, especially for areas south and west of the city today. Stormy weather gives way to calmer, cooler conditions Wednesday before another round of rain moves in late Thursday. Cooler temperatures prevail in the short to medium term.

Rest of today – the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a marginal to slight risk of severe weather today. These areas are largely confined to those south and west of the city. A frontal boundary is draped from west to east across the area, such that portions to the east will be in colder air north of the frontal boundary, while those areas to the west will be in a warmer area south of it. Any strong to severe thunderstorms will be confined to areas that see the warmest temperatures today, where the spread in high temperatures could be over 25ºF from eastern Long Island to Central New Jersey.

In the city, expect high temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s with a potential for thunderstorms, some possibly with damaging winds and small hail. These storms will be coming in two rounds, one around 11AM this morning (radar returns are already showing this batch of weaker showers), and the second, stronger batch coming around 3PM.

Wednesday – temperatures cool off considerably in the wake of these storms. High temperatures will be around 60ºF tomorrow with sunny skies.

Thursday – another cool day with high temperatures in the upper-50s and increasing clouds along with an increasing chance of rain during the day into the overnight hours.

Friday – high temperatures in the upper-50s to around 60ºF with partly sunny skies.

Below Normal Temperature Trend to Continue – Rain Needed

An upcoming series of storm systems moving over the region will lead to colder air being pulled in behind them. This will result in below normal temperatures for this time of year throughout much of the next two weeks.

Due to a long stretch of dry weather, many portions of the NYC region have fallen behind normal precipitation levels for this period of the year by considerable margins. Hopefully, the rounds of rain we are forecast to receive coming up will help to prevent drought conditions from redeveloping in the area before this growing season starts in earnest.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 22, 2015

June 22, 2015NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weather Updatecold front, nyc weather, nyc wx, severe thunderstorms, severe tstorms, severe weather, severe wx, tstorms, weatherLei Zhao

The official start of summer was this weekend, and this week will be accompanied by decidedly summer-like weather. High temperatures for the first half of the week will be quite warm, in the mid-upper 80s, with some areas probably passing the 90º mark on Tuesday. Along with the summer-like temperatures, there will also be a chance for strong thunderstorms.

Rest of today – sunny skies will allow temperatures to rise up into the upper-80s and possibly 90 in the city. However, since humidity and dewpoints are low, it will not feel oppressively hot.

Tuesday – a cold front approaching from the west could serve as the trigger for some strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Ahead of this cold front, continued southwesterly winds will maintain very warm temperatures in the upper-80s to low-90s in some parts.

Timing of thunderstorms looks to be in the late afternoon, possibly around the PM rush, with a line of storms moving . Warm temperatures and a humid airmass look to yield moderate SBCAPE (surface-based convective available potential energy) values in the 2000-3000 J/Kg range. This environment should support intensification for any storms that form to marginally severe limits. Correspondingly, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the area in a slight risk area for severe weather tomorrow, except for eastern Long Island and Connecticut.

North American model high resolution simulated radar for Tuesday, 5PM EDT

Wednesday – behind the cold front, things dry out and temperatures should cool off a bit, with high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Thursday – this will begin a period of unsettled weather that looks poised to persist through the weekend. The front that moves south of us Wednesday then stalls not too far, and remains nearly stationary starting Thursday. Several waves of low pressure are expected to move along this frontal boundary. While at this time, Thursday looks dry, cloud cover will be increasing and temperatures should be cooler, only around 80.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 14, 2014

October 14, 2014Flooding, NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Severe Weather, Storms, Thunderstorms, Tropical/Hurricanes, Weather Updatebermuda, cold front, flooding, gonzalo, hurricane fay, hurricane gonzalo, new york city weather, nyc weather, nyc wx, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, severe wx, weather updateLei Zhao

Apologies for the lapse in posts last week. There was plenty to talk about with the formation and dissipation of Hurricane Fay, and with Hurricane Gonzalo developing. Gonzalo won’t be a threat to the U.S. mainland, but may wreak havoc in the vicinity of Bermuda as a low end Category 3 storm with 115-120mph sustained winds. This storm has the potential to hit Category 4.

Back to our region:

Today – we get to enjoy a very warm day for this time of the year with highs in the mid-upper 70s and sunny skies! Unfortunately, clouds will begin spreading over the area in a few hours time ahead of a system described in detail below.

Wednesday – there will be a chance of light rain in the morning, with the chance for more substantial rainfall increasing in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild in the mid-70s with persistent southeasterly flow channeling in warm, moist air from the south ahead of the cold front and storm system that was responsible for a severe weather outbreak in parts of the Midwest and Southeast earlier this week.

Thursday – will be the main event. Lucky for us, the storm system coming at us won’t be bringing severe weather, however, a thunderstorm or two is not out of the question. The main issue for us will be the risk of flooding from this slow moving system. Forecast models show training of storm cells, meaning the same areas will get hit repeatedly or continuously with moderate rain showers. Rain will likely be falling throughout the entirety of the day Thursday with little or no breaks. Rainfall totals of nearly 2″+ could lead to some minor flooding. However, the rain is welcome since we are nearly 3″ below average for rainfall. Temperatures should again remain on the warm side with highs in the mid-70s.

NAM high resolution model output for Thursday, Oct 16 @5PM – note the bright blue and purples stretched over the area, indicating bands of heavier rain

Precipitation total forecast for 8PM Wednesday-8PM Thursday. Nearly 2" for the NYC area. — Precipitation total forecast for 8PM Wednesday-8PM Thursday. Nearly 2″ for the NYC area.

Friday – things settle down quickly as a brief window of calm weather enters the picture. Temperatures will be cooler in the wake of the cold front with west winds and highs in the lower 70s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 15, 2014

July 15, 2014NYC, Rain, Severe Weather, Storms, Thunderstormsflash flooding, flooding, new york city, new york city weather, nyc, nyc weather, nyc wx, rain, severe weather, severe wx, thunderstormsLei Zhao

A correction from yesterday – I had said today may see less potential for severe weather. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center once again has most of the NYC metro area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms later today.

Based on current satellite trends, it does appear there will be some breaks in the clouds this morning and afternoon. This will allow sufficient sunshine and daytime warming to fuel strong to severe storms across our region again later today. In the upper atmosphere, largely unidirectional winds from the south-southwest, a favorable jet stream set up, and approaching cold front suggest the potential for storms with damaging wind gusts and even some hail. Flash flooding is again a distinct possibility.

As you see below, portions of our area saw up to 1-1.5″ rain yesterday, and these same areas are in the target zone for severe storms today as well. With the upper level winds lining up from the south-southwest, training (where multiple storms hit the same location over a period of time) of storms is likely. This will enhance the risk for flash flooding.

A note about the term unidirectional winds: Unlike a hurricane, severe thunderstorms thrive on upper atmospheric energy, and unidirectional winds at all levels are more conducive to imparting a rotation on a rising parcel of air (rotating thunderstorms can produce tornadoes).

Otherwise, expecting a warm, humid day, with highs in the mid 80s and some sun before storms arrive later in the afternoon. It will be cooler and more comfortable tomorrow with this stormy cold front having passed us!

NYC Afternoon Weather Update – Jul 9, 2014

July 9, 2014NYC, Severe Weather, Thunderstorms, Weather Updatenyc weather, nyc wx, severe weather, severe wx, spc, storm prediction center, thunderstorms, weather, wxLei Zhao

The Storm Prediction Center has again placed western and interior portions of the NYC region under a slight risk for severe weather today. The atmospheric setup this afternoon is similar to yesterday, with plenty of solar heating and humid air leading to moderate instability. At this hour, CAPE values (a measure of instability) are already hitting 1500-2500 J/Kg across the area, with greater instability further south.

There are already a few scattered thunderstorms forming over Eastern Pennsylvania. These storms are not yet hitting severe limits, but conditions are favorable for further development and increase in areal coverage. With winds aloft mostly unidirectional from the southwest, damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. Storms that form to the southwest of NYC near the Philadelphia metro area and Central New Jersey would be the ones to watch for immediate impacts in the city.

These storms are still several hours away, and it remains to be seen whether they will hold up upon encountering the cooler and stabilizing influence of marine air infiltrating along south-facing shores with the southwest winds and a sea breeze. Last night, the line of severe thunderstorms weakened just before it hit NYC, sparing us from some wicked weather for the night. The same case may unfold again today, but the situation bears monitoring.

LZ | Weather

Weather updates & posts for NYC region