Tag Archives: thunderstorms

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 5, 2020

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We have a muggy, strormy, and warm start to the weekend with temps in the 80s. Tomorrow, a cold front sweeps through in the afternoon. This will bring relief from the humidity and heat. High pressure builds in going into next week with temperatures back to seasonable ranges in the 70s. We should see an extended period of dry, sunny weather as a result.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy overall with high temperatures in the low-80s. Some shortwaves and surface troughs moving through will serve as the focal point for thunderstorm development. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere today to tap, so storms could produce heavy rainfall, and if enough hit the same locations via training/backbuilding there is potential for localized flooding. Overnight lows in the upper-60s as storm chances continue with fog possible late.

GFS model precipitable water at 8PM today, with values as high as 2.00″ around NYC.

Saturday – clouds diminishing during the day with high temperatures in the mid-80s. A cold front moves through in the afternoon, but will not have the benefit of having as much moisture as today to tap into. Still, an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Downsloping winds behind the cold front should help dry and warm things up. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – high pressure starts to build and skies remain mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows around 60ºF.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday – high pressure continues to build and provide us another sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weather Update – Jun 2, 2020

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A stretch of slightly above normal temperatures in the low-80s is in store for us as we kick off the month of June. Temperatures and humidity will pick up noticeably tomorrow with a warm front passing through. Some thunderstorms are possible with the trailing cold front. Weather improves Thursday then rain chances increase again later in the week. The tropics have been active, too, with Tropical Depression Three forming in the Bay of Campeche.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with a chance of showers developing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday.

Wednesday – rain chances continue into the day Wednesday with a warm front passing through early in the day. Temperatures will warm up into the low-80s in response to southerly flow. Some break in the clouds possible between the warm front and a trailing cold front. Clouds increase again later with this cold front. Some thunderstorms could pop up. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances diminishing and clouds clearing.

Thursday – high pressure briefly builds in with temperatures in the low-80s and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances increasing again as another frontal system moves in.

Friday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

In the tropics

The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is forecast to be an active one, and is living up to this forecast so far. A tropical depression formed yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, and if it organizes into a named tropical storm before Thursday, it will break a record for the earliest time for a third named storm to form. For now, this storm poses little risk for the US, but will bring heavy rain to a wide swath of southeastern Mexico and Central America. Later in the forecast period, this storm could track out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Gulf Coast.

GOES visible satellite loop of Tropical Depression Three in the Bay of Campeche this morning.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 15, 2020

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We have summery temperatures in the low-80s to start the weekend. Some storms are possible overnight as a cold front swings through. Saturday sets up to be another nice day with high pressure building. Sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures in the mid-70s. By Sunday, a storm system approaches bringing possible showers. Next week, we may see a prolonged period of wet weather, in part affected by tropical moisture from a potential Tropical Storm Arthur.

Rest of today – a warm front has already pushed through the area earlier this morning. Warm, southwesterly winds will help temperatures rise well into the upper-70s and low-80s. Clouds are likely to increase as a cold front approaches slowly from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s as the cold front moves through, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – high pressure builds in behind this cold front. This should yield a sunny day with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Sunday – a storm system will be approaching from the west. Rain chances will increase late with mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Monday – rain chances continue due to the influences explained below. High temperatures remain cool, in the low-60s, with mostly cloudy skies expected. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Potential Subtropical or Tropical Storm Arthur’s Impact on Our Weather

Next week, we may be in for an extended period of dreary, wet weather as the storm system mentioned above interacts with a potential tropical storm that’s currently forming over the Florida Straits. Actually, regardless of whether this becomes a full-fledged tropical or subtropical storm (which would be named Arthur, and the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season), it would still have the potential to bring tropical moisture our way. The interaction between these two storm systems, plus the forecast for a an area of blocking high pressure forming north of them means that we could see chances for rain well into mid-week next week.

  • National Hurricane Center’s forecast outlook for the Atlantic Basin, showing an 80% chance for a disturbance over the Florida Straits to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone
  • GFS model 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation for Tuesday, showing this offshore storm interacting with one over land
  • GFS model 4-panel prog valid for 8PM Sunday, showing conditions favorable for tropical cyclogenesis: low wind shear, high vorticity, and decently moist low-mid levels.

NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2020

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Record setting cold this weekend that led to rare May snows will feel like another life time by the end of this week when temperatures will soar to near or above 80ºF. A general warming trend will take place until then, bookended by rain chances today and Friday due to a couple passing storms.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with hig temperatures in the upper-50s. A fast moving storm could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-40s as skies clear.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday.

Tuesday – sunny high pressure building, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure steadily moves east, bringing another day of sunny skies and high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for May 16-20, finally, it looks like we get a break from below normal temperatures!

Thursday – high temperatures warm into the mid-60s with high pressure still in control giving us mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 20, 2020

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A couple storm systems will impact NYC this week. The first of these could bring some thunderstorms and gusty conditions tomorrow afternoon. Later this week on Thursday, a second storm bringing steadier rain will move through. Temperatures throughout this period will be generally 5ºF below normal. Tuesday and Wednesday overnight lows could bottom out in the upper-30s.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with clouds diminishing later, high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday

Tuesday – quick moving storm will push a warm front and then a strong cold front through Tuesday afternoon. Showers should begin in the afternoon and a line of thunderstorms is possible with the cold front. High temperatures around 60ºF with southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Wednesday – the low bringing the rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday continues to strengthen. The pressure gradient will tighten around this low and bring windy conditions but with sunny skies. High temperatures cool off into the low-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

GFS 2-meter above ground level temperature anomalies for 2AM Thursday. A cold night in store for many parts of the Northeast!

Thursday – partly sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 50ºF with rain developing.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 13, 2020

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A powerful storm tracking over the Great Lakes that brought a deadly outbreak of severe weather and strong tornadoes to the Deep South will continue tracking northeast over the Great Lakes. A warm front and cold front associated with this storm could bring thunderstorms, though regardless, dangerously strong winds will be present. After this storm passes, this gives way to a cooling pattern with a second, weaker storm coming Wednesday. Temperatures during this period start above normal in the 60s to below normal in the low-50s.

Rest of today – a powerful surface low over tracking over the Great Lakes with minimum central pressure below 984 mb will bring a period of dangerous winds to the region. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over the Atlantic will be very tight, as you can see below. This will result in sustained winds easily in the 30 mph range, with stronger gusts of 60-65 mph possible due to the very strong winds aloft. Both the warm front and cold fronts of this storm could touch off some isolated elevated thunderstorms, though instability will be modest at best. High temperatures should peak in the upper-60s with robust warm air advection due to these strong winds eventually turning southwest. Overnight lows in the mid-40s as this storm pulls away.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM Monday

Tuesday – skies clear up overnight into the morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies should prevail with high pressure building. High temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows around 40°F.

Wednesday – a second, weaker low is forecast to form over the northern Gulf of Mexico along the southerly extremes of the cold front from this first storm. This low then slides northeast along the coast. Although this second storm will pass far to the south of us, it could still bring some rain during the day. With clouds, rain, and an onshore northeasterly/easterly flow, temperatures will struggle to hit 50ºF. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

GFS model 500 mb height anomalies for 2PM Thursday. Negative height anomalies at the 500 mb level can often translate to below normal temperatures at the surface.

Thursday – temperatures remain cool despite more sun, only reaching into the low-50s. Overnight lows around 40ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 9, 2020

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We have a stormy start to the forecast period with the Storm Prediction Center putting us under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon. Behind this storm, windy conditions will prevail Friday with the pressure gradient tightening between an incoming high pressure and the departing low. This pressure gradient eases Saturday as high pressure moves more directly overhead. Decent weather continues Sunday before another storm rolls in Monday. Above normal temperatures for Thursday in the low-60s. Temperatures drop below normal in low-50s this weekend before picking up Monday into the upper-60s.

Rest of today – lighter stratiform rain in the morning hours with a warm front moving through. This will be followed up by a possible round of strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon hours (most likely around 1-2PM). The primary risk for severe weather comes from the potential for damaging wind gusts, with very fast winds aloft potentially mixing down to the surface. High temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows around 40ºF as gusty winds bring in strong cold air advection. See this detailed forecast for more info about today.

Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Thursday, showing us in a slight risk area for severe weather later today.

Friday – despite a high in the low-50s, strong winds around a deepening low will make it feel significantly cooler. Clouds should gradually diminish during the day. Overnight lows cool, in the upper-30s.

Weather Prediction center surface forecast for 8AM Friday. A strong low pressure cetner is indicated tracking northeast out of Maine.

Saturday – winds ease as an area of high pressure moves more directly over us. High temperatures should range in the mid-50s with plenty of sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid-40s.

Sunday – clouds increasing with high temperatures in the upper-50s. Overnight lows will warm into the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 8, 2019

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A distinct fall feel this week with grey skies the norm and spotty rain chances for many of the days. A coastal storm brewing off the Southeast coast is forecast to track north and then northeast. National Hurricane Center is tracking this system as it has some potential to acquire subtropical characteristics. This will be a slow moving storm that will bring a long period of northeasterly winds to the area.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper-60s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday
  • The developing coastal storm depicted above.

Showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda are associated with a broad, non-tropical area of low pressure. This system is forecast to move northward or northeastward and could acquire some subtropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States by the end of the week.

National Hurricane Center

Wednesday – although the storm referenced is forecast to remain well offshore, outer rain bands from it could bring showers to the area along with persistent northeast winds. These wind are anticipated to be on the strong side, steadily in the mid-teens with gusts in the 25 mph range. Mostly cloudy with highs around 60°F. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

Thursday – rain chances continue as the storm develops and becomes a closed low. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-60s. Winds will become blustery from the northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts. This will be due to the increasing pressure gradient between the deepening low and high pressure over eastern Quebec. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity. The coastal storm continues to spin off the Northeast coast, although its center remains well offshore (just above the pivotalweather logo in this frame).

Friday – rain still lingers though the storm starts to finally make some eastward progress as a trough approaches from the west. High temperature remain in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as warmer southerly flow starts to work into the region.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 1, 2019

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This week will see a wild temperature swing that will take us into the upper-80s, giving us a last taste of summer, followed up by a plunge into decidedly fall-like temperatures barely in the upper-60s. Friday night in particular looks like it could be the coldest yet this season, with overnight lows possibly dipping below 50°F. Temperatures start to recover over the weekend to around normal for this time of year around 70°F.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures warming into the upper-70s, near 80°F. A warm front is forecast to push through and winds will be coming from the southwest, ushering in some renewed warmth. Overnight lows around 70°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – with a warm front passing Tuesday, and high pressure setting up over the Southeast US, warm air will be surging from the southwest towards the region. This should allow high temperatures to rise well into the upper-80s and possibly close to 90°F. A cold front will be approaching from the north Wednesday night, bringing along rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures will cool off quickly with the rain and the cold front, dropping into the upper-50s.

Thursday – much cooler with high temperatures only reaching into the low-60s. Rain chances linger during the day with the cold front stalling out south of us and another low pressure center pushing east. Overnight lows not much cooler than daytime highs, around 60°F as rain chances continue.

GFS model output for precipitation, 1000-500 mb thickness, valid for 10AM Friday. Note the relatively closely packed black lines (isobars) between the high pressure centered over Wisconsin and the Low off the coast of Nova Scotia. This pressure gradient will deliver some windy conditions Friday.

Friday – conditions should clear up as the low pressure responsible for rain on Thursday moves off to the east. A tight pressure gradient is forecast to form between this low and a high pressure center building over the Great Lakes. This should result in a windy day, with high temperatures bouncing back into the mid-60s. Overnight lows are forecast to drop to around 50°F with the influence of the much cooler continental polar airmass and north/northwesterly winds.

NYC Weekend Weather – Sept 27, 2019

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High pressure and fair weather will get punctuated with the passage of a cold front scheduled to push through overnight into Sunday. This front could touch off a few thunderstorms. Temperatures during this time will be slightly above average in the upper-70s. A cooler airmass should finally move in Monday with more easterly onshore flow.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – warmer, with high temperatures around 80°F and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s. Scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight as a cold front pushes through

Sunday – sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-70s. Despite the cold front, we should see some warmth from downsloping northerly winds and subsidence in the wake of the frontal boundary causing compressional warming. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NAM model output for 2PM Monday, mean sea level pressure and 10 m above ground level winds. Note the easterly flow in NYC imparted by the high pressure to our east-northeast

Monday – another sunny day with cooler high temperatures in the low-70s, overnight lows in the low-60s.