NYC weather update (noreaster?): Still considerable variation between different forecast models in the resolution of the storm track for this upcoming coastal low. Model spread of about 100 mi during the critical forecast period. This could mean the difference between a large snowfall for all areas of NYC metro, or a rain/snow/sleet mix for the city & coastal areas, and all snow inland.

With this much uncertainty in the mix, it’s still hard to say with any confidence how much snow will accumulate. Operational forecasts from the NWS are mixing in rain at the moment during the day Thurs. More updates to come.

Temps tomorrow & Wed remain chill, below freezing in the upper 20s, with lows in the teens again in NYC and single digits further inland. Clear and sunny conditions for the most part until the storm rolls in.