Everything is on track for this strong noreaster to begin moving into our area late tonight. NWS forecast office in Upton has upgraded all areas in the NYC metro to winter storm warnings ahead of the storm. The low pressure center responsible for this weather will move offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula and begin a process of rapid strengthening as its central pressure drops precipitously by 25mb.

Snow will begin falling over the area from south to north after midnight tonight. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2″/hour are possible with a large scale snow band  forecast to develop due to the influence of a strengthening frontal boundary. By morning, NYC will pick up at least 3″ of heavy, wet snow, making for a messy commute. Snow will continue falling during the morning commute, heavily at times, limiting visibility. Snow transitions into sleet and possibly some rain around the coastal areas during midday. If rain mixes in, areas near the coast would see minimal additional snow accumulation during the day. If rain does not mix in, then another 6″ is possible.

Areas in the interior will see snow start later than NYC and the coast, but will continue to experience all snow or a sleet/snow mix during the day Thursday. These areas will pick up an additional 6″+ during the day Thursday, with another shot at picking up 6″ or more Thursday night as bands of snow continue to rotate around the center of the low.

As the storm departs to the east, it will continue to strengthen. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to stronger winds, with gusts as high as 40-50mph in some parts, leading to blowing and drifting snow. The heavy, wet snow associated with this storm has the potential to knock out power and collapse roofs already encumbered with accumulation from previous storms.