Monthly Archives: March 2014

NYC Weekend Weather Update – Mar 15, 2014

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Expecting a pleasant, mild, and mostly sunny day Saturday, temps in the mid-upper 50s – if you get a chance, definitely go out and enjoy the nice weather before a storm system enters the NYC region Sunday night into Monday night.

The mild temps today are as a result of southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. When the cold front pushes through, winds will shift to the west, ushering gusts up to 40mph and a significantly colder air mass.

Sunday – should be another mostly sunny day, though much cooler than today with highs temps only in the mid 30s. Sunday night, increasing chance of snow begins from south to north across the area. Overnight lows into Monday only in the mid 20s.

Monday – high temps will be right about freezing near the coast, and in the mid 20s in the interior. The setup for this storm system is very similar to the last snow storm (or non-storm) on Mar 3rd. Forecast models are suggesting that the bulk of moisture and favorable dynamics for heavy snow will remain offshore. Should this scenario hold, then we’d only expect to see a dusting to maybe an inch of snow in the city and Long Island, with negligible totals further north.

During the last storm, forecasters had difficulty resolving the uncertainty about exactly where the best conditions for heavier snow would exist. Again, this time, the line is quite close. A slight adjustment northward of the current forecast track for the low pressure system that is developing over the Gulf now could result in higher snowfall totals. See below how close the areas of darker blue representing moderate precipitation are to our area!

Screen shot 2014-03-15 at 11.29.13 AMTuesday – a dry and sunny day, but with temps still suppressed in the mid 30s in the city as a high pressure system temporarily sits over the NYC area.

Wednesday – the next low pressure system to impact the area will be moving in from the Great Lakes, with a low pressure center sliding to our north and a trailing cold front. Temps will climb into the low-mid 40s ahead of the cold front, so precipitation would be mixed to mostly rain.

Screen shot 2014-03-15 at 11.31.49 AM

The end of the week looks to be dry with highs near normal (around 47-49 deg at this time of the year).

Weather Update – Midweek Storm, Mar 11, 2014

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Wednesday is shaping up to be a stormy, rainy day. Low pressure center currently located over Nebraska and Oklahoma will slide to the northeast into the Ohio valley while continuing to strengthen.

Current forecasts point to the storm center tracking just north of the NYC area. This should ensure that most of the region receives all rain for this storm. As the storm center draws closer, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will slowly push through to just north of the NYC area. This will allow the area to be entrenched in the warm sector, this means temperatures will stay relatively mild with highs in the mid-50s. It also raises the possibility for some weak thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as the cold front trailing the storm center pushes through.

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In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the DC-PHL metro areas as well as parts of southern Pennsylvania, northern Virginia, Maryland (see diagram below) under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The same cold front could trigger stronger storms down to the south due to the likelihood of warmer temperatures, more unstable air, and favorable conditions for thunderstorm initiation.

Screen shot 2014-03-11 at 4.24.37 PM

Behind the cold front, temperatures will plummet during the evening and overnight hours. The departing low will continue to strengthen into Thursday, with increasing northwest winds ushering in this colder air as well as a chance for snow showers (negligible accumulation expected). Highs will only barely hit the mid-20s.

Conditions will improve later in Thursday and Friday as an area of high pressure moves over the region. Temps will climb back into the low 40s Friday just below average, and rise to near 50 Saturday. Next chance of significant precipitation looks to be Sunday into Sunday night – with the potential for a snow storm!

 

NYC Weather Update – Mar 10, 2014

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After a quiet weather weekend, the NYC area will be experiencing a mid-week storm.

Tuesday – a mild day with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-upper 50s across the area ahead of the frontal system that will impact the region on Wednesday. The cold front will be draping west-east and positioned through Pennsylvania, allowing a westerly flow of warm air into the area.

Wednesday –  the surface low pressure responsible for the mid-week storm will be over the central Ohio valley. Precipitation will extend eastward from the low pressure center along the frontal boundary referenced above. The center of the storm is forecast to pass right over the NYC region. Coastal areas should see all rain from this storm with a warming onshore flow developing (east winds). Areas in the interior could see a mix of rain/snow and possibly freezing rain. Heavy rain could develop during the afternoon hours.

Thursday – the low pressure center will strengthen as it passes over NYC and eventually pushes offshore. Cold air will wrap around the low pressure center and winds will shift to the north and northwest. There’s a possibility that the city could see a transition from rain to snow during this period of cooling temps. Temps on Thursday will struggle to only reach the low 30s.

Friday – high pressure will build in briefly Friday allowing a return to mostly clear conditions and warmer temps in the low 40s before the next storm system moves in with a clipper type system moving in from Canada. Dry conditions should lower chances for precipitation on Saturday.

Below: NAVGEM forecast map for 7PM EST Wednesday night. Notice an area of surface low pressure forming off the coast of Southeast NJ.

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NYC Midweek Weather Update – Mar 5, 2014

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Just a quick update on the weather for NYC for the rest of the work week into the weekend. It’s finally going to be a quiet weather week for us after what’s been an cold and snowy February.

Tonight, a slight chance of flurries, and a cold night with fairly good conditions for radiational cooling, lows dropping into the low 20s in the city and teens in the interior. Wind chills in the single digits for Thursday morning.

Thursday – high pressure will prevail and bring sunny skies, but still a cold day with highs in the low 30s. Clouds will increase during the day with another slight chance for snow during the night into Friday morning.

Friday – cloudy with temps warming to the low 40s. As the high pressure center moves offshore, winds will shift to the west.

Saturday – increasingly warm with temps near 50 especially in coastal areas due to a northeast wind off of the relatively warmer ocean waters. A storm system will pass well to our south and east, so no precipitation is expected.

Sunday – slightly cooler with highs in the low 40s and a increasing wind from the north.

Our local NWS forecast office put together a great graphic that shows how this past February stacks up climatologically. Check it out:

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NYC Weather – Monday Storm Update, Mar 2, 2014

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Just a quick update on the storm coming in tonight into Monday. Latest forecast models are showing a much drier atmospheric profile and placing the best areas of lift (associated with heavier precipitation) well south of the immediate NYC area.

That being the case, NWS has lowered the forecast totals for NYC to at most 2-4″. Same for Long Island. Trace to a dusting for northern suburbs. The bulk of the heavier snow will stay to our south, over portions of central and southern NJ. See the following graphic which shows probabilities for greater than 4″ through Tuesday morning. NYC is barely in the 30-40% range. Snow should begin falling this evening and last into the early AM rush hour.

Screen shot 2014-03-02 at 4.04.03 PMWith the cold front having passed through today, we’ll see a return to much colder temps, with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the mid-20s. A gradual warmup will take place towards the middle and end of the week, with temps slowly clawing back to freezing, and even potentially topping 40 by Friday (that would still be about 5-6 degrees below normal for this time of year).

Next chance at significant precipitation will be Friday/Saturday with a possible coastal storm I referenced in the last entry.

NYC Weather Update, Monday Storm – Mar 1, 2014

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Summary

March is coming in like a lion this year (let’s hope it leaves like a lamb), with yet another snow storm to add to our misery here in the NYC area Sunday night into Monday night.

Background

A strong coastal storm that’s currently pummeling California with heavy rain and snow will be transferring its energy and moisture to the aforementioned storm. For California, the rain and snow is a mixed blessing: with a hundred-year drought gripping the region, moisture is welcome; however, so much rain in such a short time window is leading to flash flooding, mudslides, and other headaches. See the video below:

Forecast

Our local NWS forecast office has issued a winter storm watch for Long Island, NYC, and central NJ on south. The latest snow maker will be two waves of low pressure that will travel along the length of an arctic cold front Sunday and Monday. This cold front will across our area during this period, ensuring that the air will be cold enough for all snow during the strongest part of the storm, although precipitation may start off as a rain/snow mix during the day Sunday with highs expected to be in the mid 30s.

The forecast graphic below depicts probabilities of snowfall accumulations at least 6″ or more across the region from 8PM Sunday through 8PM Monday. As you can see, we are right on the cusp of a high confidence zone for more than 6″. As it stands, 6″ seems to be the going number for the areas under the winter storm watch. A slight northward adjustment of the storm track would increase the chances we get more than 8″.

This will be a prolonged weather event – so, moderate snow for a longer time, but less of the heavy snow that we saw with the last storm.

Screen shot 2014-03-01 at 1.50.16 PMOvernight lows on Sunday will be around 20 in the city, and highs Monday will be in the mid 20s, with the cold air flowing in behind the cold front.

Extended Forecast

Things settle down after the storm passes Monday, with mostly clear and dry conditions Tuesday through Thursday. High pressure will dominate, bringing these clear conditions, but also extending the cold snap well into next week as it continues to pump Canadian air into the area. Highs will continue struggling to reach the mid-upper 20s, with overnight lows in the teens at the coast and single digits in the interior.

Interesting note: some of the GFS (Global Forecast System) models are showing the potential development of a strong coastal storm next weekend. Of course, it’s far too early to talk specifics about precipitation type and amounts as this storm may not materialize. The models are fairly consistent in developing a low over the northern Gulf of Mexico, however, a frontal system also develop to be strong enough to push this storm well offshore as it approaches the region.

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