Daily Archives: May 22, 2014

NYC Weather Update – Meteor Shower Visibility – May 22, 2014

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Today was an active weather day for the NYC area, particularly over New Jersey and upstate. A funnel cloud was spotted up in the Albany area, and a few severe thunderstorms exhibiting strong rotation (the strongest thunderstorms-supercells-often feature a single internal circulation called a mesocyclone)  formed ahead of a cold front that’s still slowly pushing its way over western New Jersey. Some of these storms produced large hail over interior parts of the NYC metro area.

Friday there will continue to be a risk for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, otherwise it should be a mostly cloudy day with his right around 70.

In Oberlin, tomorrow should see skies gradually clearing with his in the mid-upper 60s.

GFS model output for 5PM EDT Friday, May 23, 2014
NAM model simulated radar image for 5PM EDT Friday, May 23, 2014
Saturday still cannot rule out a lingering risk of thunderstorms and showers in the PM hours on Saturday as shortwaves (impulses of energy) continue to spin around the backside of the departing low pressure system that’s brought us this period of unsettled weather. Highs will again be around 70, depending on if breaks in clouds develop.
By Saturday, skies should clear out over Oberlin, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 70s.
GFS model output for 2PM EDT Saturday, May 24, 2014
NAM model simulated radar image for 2PM EDT Saturday, May 24, 2014

Sunday and Monday are still on track to be the best days of the Memorial Day weekend with temperatures in the upper 70s Sunday and low 80s Monday.

Camelopardalis Meteor Shower Visibility

Now about that meteor shower, will you be able to see it in NYC? Sadly, the answer is probably not, due to a forecast that calls for mostly cloudy skies. With cloudy conditions, light pollution is amplified as the light cast off from the city gets reflected back down even more. It will be a different story for Oberlin, though, where skies are forecast to clear due to the influence of building high pressure well before the anticipated peak of the meteor showers.

NWS hour by hour graphical forecasts. Red boxes indicate the forecast peak for the new Comet 209P/LINEAR Camelopardalis meteor shower.
NWS hour by hour graphical forecasts. Red boxes indicate the forecast peak for the new Comet 209P/LINEAR Camelopardalis meteor shower. The blue line represents the percentage of the sky that’s forecast to be covered with clouds. 

NYC Nowcast – Afternoon Tstorms – May 22, 2014

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The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed western portions of our region under a slight risk for severe weather this afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging winds and hail.

UntitledMid-upper level conditions are favorable for the development of thunderstorms with some rotating updrafts. Unidirectional winds at various levels, as well as wind speed shear, could impart enough rotation on storm cells to cause marginally severe wind damage and some hail. The highest potential will be over Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where sufficient solar heating could produce CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, measured in joules per cubic kilogram) values of between 1000-1500 J/kg^3.

Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed western portions of our region in a slight risk area for severe weather this afternoon
Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed western portions of our region in a slight risk area for severe weather this afternoon

A small cluster of thunderstorms is already initiating along the western New York/Pennsylvania border ahead of a weak cold front. These storms should expand in coverage and increase in intensity as skies are clear ahead of the frontal boundary, allowing for a good influx of energy for storms to feed off of. The current thinking is that isolated severe thunderstorms reach our region by around the 4-6PM time frame. The chances of these storms remaining severe over NYC and coastal areas is low, since there will be a stabilizing influence from the cool marine layer offshore.
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