The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire NYC metro area in an area for a slight risk of severe weather today. A strong low pressure center over the Great Lakes and its associated cold front are slowly making their way towards the Eastern Seaboard. Despite the cloudiness today, forecasters are still fairly confident that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for the formation of severe thunderstorms in the region. Based on current radar trends, these storms would most likely not be arriving in the NYC area until later this afternoon. The primary threat to our area will be damaging winds and torrential rain capable of triggering flash floods.

Tuesday will feature a similar set up for weather over the region, though there is less risk for severe weather tomorrow. However, strong storms are possible throughout the day and the risk of flash flooding is a distinct possibility. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s despite cloud cover, due to the influence of warm, humid air rushing in between the cold front and high pressure offshore over the Atlantic. This same warm, humid air mass is what will feed the storms for today and tomorrow. As you see below, the forecast rainfall total for today and tomorrow is as high as 3.6″ over Northeastern New Jersey, and ranges between 2.5-3″ for most parts of the Tri-State area.

Wednesday – we get a reprieve from the stormy weather as the cold front and storm system finally move east of NYC. Expect a cloudy start to the day with gradual clearing and conditions improving markedly. The next weather story for Wednesday through the end of the week is the cool, polar air mass that will be a dominant feature. High pressure will build in behind this storm system and usher in much cooler temperatures, with highs in the low 80s Wednesday-Friday, and overnight lows in the low-mid 60s in the city, and in the 50s north and west!

Thursday & Friday – expecting these two days to be essentially the same weather-wise, with high temperatures in the low 80s in the city (and upper 70s further north). Sunny to mostly clear skies for both days.