Daily Archives: October 20, 2014

NYC Weather Update – Oct 20, 2014

This week will be a colder repeat of last week, with a wet mid-week period, but better conditions going into the weekend.

Tuesday – an area of low pressure with an accompanying cold front moving in from the Great Lakes will give us a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm up to the mid-upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the low pressure above will spawn a secondary low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. This low pressure center will be the main weather-maker for the mid-week period. Forecast models point to a stubborn storm system that will meander slowly off the Northeast. Multiple bands of rain will rotate around this low. There will be enough instability with the vorticity associated with the low to allow for the possibility of thunderstorms, despite the fact that this low will be a colder core low. Temperatures will only be in the upper 50s with a unpleasant north to northeast wind.

gfs_namer_054_1000_850_thick
GFS model output for Wednesday, Oct 22, 2014 @ 8PM EDT
gfs_namer_069_500_vort_ht
GFS 500mb vorticity and height – notice the concentric circles indicating a closed low off the coast of the Northeast and New Engalnd. The darker yellows indicate areas of increased vorticity and energy.

Thursday – the rain should subside by around noon Thursday, but before all is said and done, we could get another  1-1.5″ of rain. The rainfall will mainly be concentrated to the east of the Hudson River, including NYC and Long Island. Temperatures will remain cool in the mid-50s with winds diminishing from the north and northwest.

Friday – the low will lift away, it will dry out, and clouds will diminish as temperatures also rebound back into the lower 60s to end the week.