The details are starting to come together for tomorrow’s Nor’easter. Over the past day, forecast models have been pointing to a faster moving system, such that the onset of precipitation is expected to begin overnight tonight, with the bulk of the precipitation ending by early afternoon tomorrow. This storm is expected to throw a little bit of everything our way tomorrow, making for a nasty day overall, with snow changing over to freezing rain or sleet, then perhaps a period of plain rain, followed by a possibility of a rain snow mix.

What to Expect

Snow, moderate to heavy at times, beginning overnight tonight. Winds picking up from southeast, then eventually moving to the northeast and north during the day Saturday. Snow transitioning to a period of possibly freezing rain or sleet during the morning hours, then a period of rain around midday and a possible rain/snow mix towards late afternoon before precipitation gradually tapers off later in the evening. High temperature right around or slightly above freezing.

Forecast Storm Track

Forecast models are in generally good agreement that the center of this Nor’easter will be passing just inside the 40ºN 70ºW benchmark sometime in the late afternoon Saturday (approx 4-5PM).

Without a high pressure center to the north supplying cold air to the area, this setup will allow for enough warm, moist air to circulate around the eastern side of the low pressure center to give us a mix of precipitation throughout the day. The extent to which snow can be sustained will be strongly dependent on dynamical cooling, and how quickly cold air can be pulled in on the western side of the low pressure center.

Snowfall Forecast

As you can see below, the probability of more than 4″ of snow is quite low for coastal areas, especially Eastern Long Island, where mainly rain is forecast. The heaviest totals (no more than 5″, most likely) will be concentrated well north and east of NYC where temperatures are expected to be cold enough to sustain all snow for longer. Because the forward speed of the storm is now predicted to be faster, the chances of NYC getting any significant snowfall (even 2″) is considerably lower. Most of the city is in a swath of between 30-40% chance of getting more than 2″ of snow.

Ice Accumulation

The probability of us receiving a trace, but a measurable amount of ice from freezing rain is quite a bit higher than the probability of receiving snow, with most of the city in the 40-60% range.

Sunday – the storm will be long gone by Sunday, and we’re expecting to hit highs in the mid-upper 30s.

Monday – there is some potential for a round of all snow on Monday, but forecast models have not been in good consensus on how this will play out. A clipper system is expected to pass through, though it is unclear whether this system will spawn a secondary low offshore. In the latter case, we could see some significant snow, while if it’s just a clipper, we probably won’t see more than a couple inches.