Monthly Archives: July 2015

NYC Weather Update – Jul 27, 2015

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The heat will be the main weather story of this week, with temperatures of 90ºF or higher forecast to occur for a majority of the week. This heat does not appear to abate until at least this weekend. Incidentally, according to the Chinese lunar calendar, we’ve just hit 大暑 (literally “big heat”), a period of 2 weeks that are supposed to be the hottest of the summer. Fans of the heat, it is time for you to rejoice.

Rest of today – clouds this morning should slowly give way to more sun in the afternoon. The cloud cover now will help keep temperatures in the mid-80s.

Tuesday – a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, but otherwise hot with highs in the low-90s and a good amount of sunshine.

Wednesday – shaping up to be the hottest day of the week, with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

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Thursday – with a cold front approaching from the west, there may be a few thunderstorms in the afternoon on Thursday which might grant some reprieve from the heat. Otherwise, sun and clouds with a high temperature in the low-90s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 23, 2015

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The end of this week and weekend will be characterized by comfortable conditions and seasonably warm temperatures. A cold front from Canada will be approaching from the west by Sunday, however, this frontal boundary looks to weaken as it nears the area. There should be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms, but it is likely most areas stay dry through the weekend.

Rest of today – high pressure over the Ohio Valley will yield sunny skies, with a high in the mid-80s. Dry air moving from the west will make for a pleasant feel today.

Friday – high pressure remains in control tomorrow, providing for conditions almost identical to today, with highs again in the mid-80s under sunny skies with low humidity.

Saturday – although the high pressure center will weaken somewhat as it moves east on Saturday, it will still dominate our sensible weather, leading to yet another day of basically the same weather conditions with highs in the mid-80s and plenty of sun.

Sunday – with the high continuing to weaken and move to the southeast, we get a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal boundary originating in Canada moving into the region. Rain chances aren’t all that high, though, so it’s likely most areas stay dry. Highs again in the mid-80s with increasing cloud cover.

Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT
Global Forecast System model output for Sunday at 11AM EDT

Drought Update

Drought conditions over New York state have drastically abated since the beginning of the month, especially in upstate regions. However, moderate drought persists over parts of Long Island.

Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.
Drought index for New York State, areas in yellow indicate slight drought, while areas shaded in tan indicate moderate drought.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 13, 2015

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This week will feature two contrasting airmasses, with the beginning of the week influenced by a warm, humid airmass, before a cold front Wednesday brings some relief from the heat and humidity and brings in cooler, drier air. A warm front, then this cold front, along with the warm temperatures and humidity will lead to the chance for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Rest of today – warm, humid, with hazy skies and a high in the mid-upper 80s.

Tuesday – a warm front approaches the area from the southwest then stalls to our south. Winds shift to the southeast, providing somewhat of a cooling effect with a sea breeze. However, inland areas should still see temperatures well into the mid-80s. A wave of low pressure will be sliding east along the stalled frontal boundary during the day Tuesday, however, the best chances for rain and thunderstorms associated with this wave look to be confined to areas well west of NYC. A spotty shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the city.

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Wednesday – as the stationary front from Tuesday moves away, a cold front will be pushing through the region on Wednesday. This will allow for the chance of rain and thunderstorms to persist. Chances for precipitation Wednesday are overall lower than Tuesday, and it will be a set up where most of the area stays dry, with only a few locations picking up appreciable rainfall from a passing storm. Highs will continue to be warm in the mid-upper 80s ahead of the cold front passing through.

Thursday – following the passage of the cold front, high pressure will build over the region. Clockwise flow around this high pressure will usher in refreshing, drier air with a north wind. Temperatures on Thursday will be cooler, in the low-80s.

NYC Weather Update – Jul 6, 2015

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We get a dose of summer weather this week, after a rather cool start to July this past weekend. Along with the warmer temperatures, there will also be some chance for unsettled weather up until Friday as a cold front transits late Wednesday into Thursday.

Tuesday – clouds and sun with high temperatures topping out in the mid-80s and possibly upper-80s in a few spots. There is a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon especially in western portions of the region.

Wednesday – clouds mixed with some sun again with a warm, tropical airmass in place ahead of a cold front allowing for high temperatures to rise into the upper-80s to low-90s in a few spots. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon, however, forecast models are still presenting disparate outcomes as to the exact timing and coverage of precipitation Wednesday. With warm temperatures and ample moisture, storms that do form have the potential to produce periods of heavy rain.

 

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Thursday – chances for rain and thunderstorms continue into the overnight hours Thursday, but it does appear that we get a break during the morning. High temperatures will be quite warm again in the upper-80s despite a cold front having moved through. Another weak disturbance is forecast to approach the area in the afternoon, giving us another chance at some showers and thunderstorms.

NYC Independence Day Weather – Jul 3, 2015

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Pleasant weather today will give way to more unsettled weather for Independence Day. Showers are likely during the day Saturday, however, it appears that rain should move out before the fireworks start. Sunday sees a return to sunny weather, with the beginning of next week starting off dry.

Rest of today – sunny skies should yield comfortable high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

Saturday (Independence Day) – an area of low pressure is forecast to pass to the south of Long Island Saturday. Rain showers are possible during the day along a nearly stationary frontal along this low pressure center. With the low pressure to our south, we will be experiencing southeasterly, easterly, then northeasterly winds associated with the counterclockwise rotation around the low. These winds and mostly cloudy skies will serve to suppress high temperatures to well below normal in the mid-70s range.

Now, the all-important question: will it rain during the fireworks displays? As of now, it appears that the bulk of any rain is expected to have moved offshore or east of the area by 8PM Saturday, which should allow for dry conditions during fireworks displays.

 

North American Model high resolution simulated radar for 8PM EDT Saturday
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for 8PM EDT Saturday

Sunday – conditions improve rapidly during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. Sunday will feature sunny skies, and highs in the low-80s.

Monday – an increase in cloud cover will herald the next week, with high temperatures remaining in the low-80s.

 

Drought Update

Drought conditions continue to abate in the region with multiple rounds of significant precipitation events. However, moderate drought persists in Eastern Long Island, as depicted in the beige shaded areas below.

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