We ended this past week of refreshing, more seasonably warm weather with a hot and humid day today. This weekend, temperatures will cool off again into about normal ranges. No significant precipitation chances are forecast for the next few days. I will be on vacation next week, so no updates for a little while unless urgent comes up.
Rest of today – comfortable with highs dropping through the 80s into the mid-70s overnight.
Saturday – high pressure takes over and delivers a sunny day with temperatures in the upper-80s.
Sunday – a tad cooler with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny.
Monday – the only day with a chance for rain, otherwise mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.
Tuesday – mostly sunny with a high in the mid-upper 80s.
Drought Worsens Upstate, Some Improvement Elsewhere
Despite getting some decent rains over the last few weeks, New York State remains gripped by drought, with a severe drought no impacting upstate regions along the Erie Canal corridor.
The weather headline this week will be spotless summer weather, with no rain in the forecast for the next week or so. Temperatures will start off on the refreshing side in the low-80s and gradually warm up, but not into excessive warmth. Also with relatively low humidity, it will feel quite comfortable.
Rest of today – breezy with northwest winds in the 20-25mph range. This northwest flow is typical after the passage of a cold front, which occurred yesterday. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs only expected to be around 80ºF and mostly sunny skies.
Tuesday – much less windy, with sunny skies and a high around 80ºF. The main driver for our weather this week will be a strong high pressure center, which will be parked pretty much right over us. This will prevent any warm, humid air from the south from entering into the area – the opposite effect of a Bermuda high.
Wednesday – warmer, with high temperatures around 85ºF and sunny skies.
Thursday – essentially the same as Wednesday, high around 85ºF and sunny.
The end of this week and this weekend will see a gradual transition away from the long-lasting heat and humidity that has gripped the area over the last couple of weeks. There will be some chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with more significant chances for rain Sunday night and going into Monday.
Rest of today – clouds are expected to clear somewhat, allowing high temperatures to reach into the mid-80s. Some slight chance for showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon.
Friday – mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching into the upper-80s, and again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday – pretty much the same as Friday, high temperatures in the upper-80s, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday – starts out decently enough, but clouds will increase, temperatures will probably end up in the mid-80s. A complex set up of multiple frontal boundaries will be moving in/setting up over the area later Sunday into the overnight hours. The exact timing of the arrival of more significant rains is still not very certain.
Monday – depending on the timing of the frontal boundaries above, we could see a mostly dry day Monday, with temperatures in the normal range, right around 85ºF.
The scorching heat from the weekend isn’t completely gone to start the week. In general, the weather will be cooler than last week, though we’re still expecting above average temperatures for this period. Luckily, we’ve gotten some rain from the extended period of unsettled weather last week and over the weekend, which is helping to ameliorate drought conditions over the region.
Rest of today – high temperatures around 90ºF with a heat advisory in effect. It would appear that a round of rain and/or thunderstorms is headed towards the area around 8PM tonight.
Tuesday – a nearly stationary front will allow for some showers and thunderstorms to develop in the region, particularly in the afternoon hours. Only a tad cooler with high temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly cloudy skies.
Wednesday – the stationary front mentioned above will lift north eventually as a warm front. This will set the stage for some possibly strong thunderstorms on Wednesday as a trailing cold front makes its push into the area. High temperatures will again be in the upper-80s with partly sunny skies.
Thursday – with a cold front finally moving through, we should see an end to the rain chance, and temperatures in the upper-80s under mostly sunny skies, but with a drier, less humid feel.
Drought Conditions Improving?
The near-term outlook for temperature and precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center both point to above average trends.
Despite warm temperatures, the last week of multiple rounds of rain has helped improve drought conditions in some portions of the region. You’ll see in the second graphic below, due to the rains both up to this point and that are forecast, drought removal might happen for much of the Southeaster New York area in the next month. This includes NYC but excludes Long Island, where a severe drought continues.
The second half of this week and this weekend will feel as though we’re living in a tropical monsoon climate zone, given the extended period of unsettled weather that we’ll be experiencing. Nearly every day over the course of the next 5-7 days, we’ll see a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some capable of producing torrential rainfall, along with a very warm and humid airmass staying in place.
Rest of today – periods of clouds and sun, likely becoming mostly cloudy this afternoon. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, with the first batch appearing to arrive around lunch. High temperatures will be around 90ºF but with the very humid air, heat indexes will be well into the upper-90s. This is the reason for there being a Heat Advisory in place until Saturday evening.
Friday – similar set up to today, periods of sun mixed in with mostly cloudy spans as well. Highs will again be around 90ºF, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The exact timing, placement, and intensity of the storms for Friday and this entire forecast period will be difficult to forecast with accuracy ahead of time.
This is due to the fact that many of the storms will be driven by subtle perturbations in the atmosphere moving around the periphery of a Bermuda High, and differential day time heating – hence why the chance for showers and thunderstorms is greatest in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze convergence boundaries are likely to serve as triggers for these storms. This Bermuda High is what has been and will be responsible for maintaining the oppressively hot and humid conditions. The tropical airmass it brings will mean that any storms that form will have the potential to tap into tropical moisture and produce very heavy rain that could lead to localized flash flooding.
Saturday – will be by far the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures forecast to reach into the mid-upper 90s. Heat indexes will be in the upper-90s to low-100s in some parts, likely triggering Excessive Heat Warnings. Once again, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur in the afternoon hours.
Sunday – a cold front will approach the region on Sunday, which will lead to a more consistent and higher chance for organized thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will remain hot, in the low-90s.
Monday – low confidence for the forecast through Monday, as the timing of the cold front passage is uncertain. It may linger, which would result in yet more chances for rain. High temperatures should cool off to below 90ºF in the upper-80s.
The weekend gave us a mixed bag of weather, with some rain but mostly warm and humid weather. Humidity starts off at a comfortable level this week, but picks up towards mid-week when get a chance for some showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures during this period will be above average by about 5ºF, though it will not be nearly as hot as a couple weeks ago.
Rest of today – more clouds than sun for the next few hours, but we’re still expected to hit highs in the mid-80s.
Tuesday – sunny, with highs in the mid-upper 80s.
Wednesday – increased humidity, mostly cloudy with a high in the mid-80s. We will be squeezed between an incoming cold front and a high pressure center in the Atlantic, which will result in a mostly southerly flow of warmer, humid air into the region.
Thursday – warmer, with highs around 90ºF and partly sunny skies.
We’ve been able to enjoy a very comfortable week of summer weather. High temperatures have been largely held in check in the low-mid 80s this week. This weekend, there will be a chance for some rain Saturday, but Sunday will be another nice day with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Rest of today – mostly sunny, high around 85ºF.
Saturday – watching for the risk of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The degree of severity will hinge upon how much cloud cover there is during the first half of the day, and whether any storms pop up early. If there are more clouds early, and some storms show up early, the available energy for storms in the afternoon associated with a cold front will be limited. Ahead of this cold front, warm, humid air will flow in, and temperatures should peak near 90ºF.
Sunday – skies will clear quickly following the passage of the aforementioned cold front. High pressure begins to take over and will give us a nice, sunny day, with highs in the mid-80s.
Monday – almost a clone of Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.
Tuesday – with high pressure still almost directly overhead, we will get another nice day with highs in the mid-80s.
Slight Improvement in Drought Conditions
With recent rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms that have impacted the area, we’ve seen a slight improvement in drought conditions, but the situation is still far from desirable.
