The last weekend of the year gets off to a mild, rainy start as a storm system moves through. Things cool off and dry out the remainder of the weekend but it looks like another rain event and warm spell hits for New Year’s Eve.

Rest of today – rain through most of the day. Gusty winds around 30 mph possible. High temperatures well above normal in the mid-50s due to a surge of warm advection accompanying the warm front initially responsible for widespread rain. At the 850 mb level, a low-level jet develops, helping enhance moisture convergence and allow for heavier rains. A flood watch is actually in effect for areas of New Jersey in the metro NYC region. Lows going into Saturday will be quite warm in the mid-40s.

Saturday – a strong cold front will move through during the afternoon which should result in high temperatures peaking early in the day around 50°F, even though it will remain mostly sunny all day. Behind this cold front, Canadian high pressure builds yielding much colder overnight lows into Sunday in the low-30s.

Sunday – much colder day on tap with Canadian high pressure in control. High temperatures around normal for this time of year near 40ºF even with plenty of sun. Overnight lows into Monday are forecast in the mid-30s.

Monday (New Year’s Eve) – clockwise return flow from the southwest on the western side of the exiting high pressure warms temperatures up into the upper-40s ahead of the next storm. The timing of this storm looks like it will result in a rainy New Year’s Eve in the city. This may sound less than ideal, but recall that we rang 2018 in with near record cold. It’ll be downright balmy in comparison this time with overnight lows forecast to barely budge in the mid-40s.