NYC Weather Update – Jan 7, 2019

We get a quick passing storm tomorrow that will bring a shot of rain/snow mix. A couple windy days will follow this before our attention turns towards a possible weekend nor’easter. As of now, temperature profiles appear to support the possibility of an accumulating snow event, if the storm track supports precipitation. The picture will become more clear later in the week as more forecast data comes in.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with temperatures in the low-30s. Temperatures will increase overnight as a warm front attached to an incoming low pressure system approaches from the southwest. Moisture will also increase and precipitation could begin falling overnight. Forecast soundings suggest temperature profiles will support a period of snow/sleet when precipitation does fall.

GFS forecast sounding for 1AM Tuesday morning, the atmosphere is beginning to saturate even at low levels. Temperature profiles remain below freezing through most of the atmosphere at this time, so if/when the atmosphere saturates, precipitation would be mostly frozen until the very near surface layer, suggesting sleet. See this post for how to read a Skew-T.

Tuesday – mixed precipitation could linger into the morning hours. Temperatures should continue to warm with southwest flow behind the warm front (warm sector) and ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures should reach into the upper-40s. Thing should dry out for a bit, but a second round of rain may accompany the passage of this trailing cold front. This cold frontal passage will be accompanied by strong lift, enough to even support a couple thunderstorms. Overnight lows will remain in the low-40s.

Weather Predicition Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday.

Wednesday – temperatures in the mid-40s. Winds will pick up into the 20-25 mph range with stronger gusts in the 30 mph range as the low pressure continuing to strengthen as it moves east. Partly sunny skies for the most part this day. Overnight lows will be much cooler, in the low-30s in the wake of the cold front passage.

GFS surface pressure and wind forecast for Thursday at 7AM. Note the dense packing of isobars (black lines indicating areas of the same pressure) over the northeast. This is due to the strengthening low exiting east over Nova Scotia and high pressure building from the west. The result will be strong winds impacting the area.

Thursday – windy conditions continue with high temperatures significantly cooler in the upper-30s under clearing skies.

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