NYC Weekend Weather – May 17, 2019

This weekend is shaping up to be similar to last weekend in some respects, with Saturday being a nearly ideal day with plenty of sun, while Sunday is cloudier with some chance for rain. The big difference is unlike last weekend, we’re not anticipating a coastal storm or record-breaking cold! In fact, we should see our first 80°F+ day in some time by Monday before a chance for showers and thunderstorms cools things off.

Rest of today – current visible satellite observations show clouds moving in from the west, so the sunny start to the day will give way to mostly cloudy conditions later. Temperatures will be mild with the influence of warm southwesterly winds, topping out in the mid-70s. Later in the evening, a cold front will push through, bringing a chance for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Overnight lows expected in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM today

Saturday – even though we’ll have a cold front push through, sinking air behind the cold front and downsloping winds from higher terrain in the north should keep things around average for this time of year in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue to be in the mid-50s.

NAM output for 500 mb height and vorticity, valid for 8AM Saturday. A noticeable reversal of the upper air pattern from earlier this week is visible with a deep longwave trough over the Western US, and ridging over the Eastern US. This will result in great weather for us tomorrow, while areas of the Plains downstream of the trough picture above see the potential for severe weather.

Sunday – warm front approaching from the south during the day Sunday will result in more clouds than sun, and perhaps a scattered rain shower. High temperatures still around average for this time of year in the low-70s. Overnight lows warm up into the low-60s as we enter the warm sector of the storm system approaching us from the west that’s expected to bring severe weather to parts of the Central US this weekend.

Monday – with the region forecast to be in the warm sector of the parent low shown below, and a prolonged period of southwesterly surface winds bringing warm air into the area, temperatures are expected to warm up into the low-80s. This day will have a summery feel, with some humidity to the air and a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Overnight lows should remain mild around 60°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Monday

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