Daily Archives: October 11, 2019

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 11, 2019

The persistent storm off the Northeast US coast finally starts to move east. This storm has defied the odds, increasing in organization and intensity overnight, and has just been named Subtropical Storm Melissa. We will enjoy a spell of warming temperatures (from the low-60s into the low-70s) and dry weather leading into early next week as the region sits between the exiting storm and another strong low over the interior of North America. A couple of frontal boundaries will pass over, however, these will be starved of meaningful moisture and should not result in any rain.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s as winds start to shift to the north due to Subtropical Storm Melissa continuing to move to the east.

Satellite imagery of the incipient Subtropical Storm Melissa

Saturday – mostly cloudy with high temperatures warming to around 70°F. Winds will diminish as Subtropical Storm Melissa finally starts moving east. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NAM model output for 500 mb heights and wind at 2PM Saturday. A significant closed upper-low, largely cut off from westerly steering currents, will be over the Upper Midwest. A slow-moving, strong occluded low will accompany this upper low at the surface. East of this, there will be some slight ridging, keeping our weather fair.

Sunday – a weakening cold front moves through, but with lack of appreciable moisture, there shouldn’t be any rain. High temperatures will be similar to Saturday, around 70°F, with m ore sunshine expected. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday

Monday (Columbus Day) – the cold front that moves through overnight into Sunday is expected to stall and become stationary. A surface low is forecast to form and move along this boundary near the coast, leading to increasing clouds with high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight with lows dropping into the upper-50s.