Monthly Archives: February 2020

NYC Weather Update – Feb 24, 2020

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, , , , , ,

Mild temperatures from this weekend carry over into the beginning of this week. High temperatures will remain in the 50s, well above normal, until the second half of the week. A couple storm systems will impact the area bringing rain, as well as a cool down in temperatures to end the week. The upcoming weekend will see temperatures drop to below normal levels with highs only in the 30s.

Rest of today – very mild, high temperatures in the upper-50s with persistent southerly flow. Increasing clouds towards the overnight hours. Rain chances increase towards day break with overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Tuesday

Tuesday – rain chances continue to increase as the storm above moves closer. High temperatures top out in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies and rain chances throughout the day. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain chances continuing.

Wednesday – rain starts to diminish but is still possible with this storm system being fairly slow to clear the area. High temperatures remain in the low-50s. Overnight lows in the mid-40s with one more slug of rain moving through.

GFS mean sea level pressure, and 10 meter above ground winds for 11PM Thursday

Thursday – clouds start to break and the rain finally clears the region. Winds will pick up as high pressure builds to the west with low pressure exiting east, creating the right pressure gradient depicted above. High temperatures dropping into the upper-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s with cooler northwesterly winds.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 18, 2020

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, , , , , ,

Cloudy day with light rain possible to start the forecast period. Skies clear for the remainder of the week behind this storm as high pressure builds. Temperatures will dip into the 30s for a brief stretch as well before rebounding back to above normal levels in the mid to upper-40s. Looking ahead into next week, above normal temperature trend is very likely to continue.

Rest of today – Light rain possible today with a warm front passing nearby and a cold front following behind that. However, the bulk of the moisture with this storm system appears to be focused south of the region, so not expecting any heavy rainfall totals. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows around 40°F with gradual clearing towards daybreak.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the low-40s, about average for this time of year. Winds turn to the northwest behind the cold front, which will facilitate cold air advection. Overnight lows in the mid-20s as a result with high pressure building.

Thursday – cold start to the day will likewise mean a cooler high temperature in the mid-30s with mostly sunny skies. High pressure continues to exert its influence. Overnight lows once again quite cold in the low-20s.

Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 23-27, showing greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures for much of the Northeast.

Friday – this pattern continues with high temperatures Friday reaching into the mid-30s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight Friday into Saturday, the high pressure finally starts moving east in earnest. Lows will range in the upper-20s.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 11, 2020

NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Update, , , , , ,

Light rain today will fall today. This will be followed by a brief spell of sunny skies and calm weather Wednesday. Another storm system impacts the area Thursday, bringing some mixed precipitation and rain. On the back side of this system, a drastic drop in temperatures will take place going into the weekend. This will be the coldest air mass we’ve seen in many weeks with lows in the teens.

Rest of today – Light rain in the morning and cloudy. High temperatures in the upper-40s. Overnight lows in the mid-30s with gradual clearing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Wednesday

Wednesday – high pressure briefly builds in with high temperatures in the mid-40s. Mixed precipitation could begin later in the day as the next storm system approaches. Overnight lows in the upper-30s with increasing mixed precipitation then transitions to rain.

Thursday – A warm up takes place with a warm front and southerly flow overnight. High temperatures reach into the mid-50s with rain ending in the morning/early afternoon. Much cooler temperatures overnight with lows around 30°F once the cold front of this storm system moves through.

GFS model 1000-500 mb precipitation and thickness valid 5PM Friday. Note the large area of Canadian high pressure centered over Indiana.

Friday – strong Canadian high pressure builds behind the cold front mentioned above. A much colder air mass will accompany this high, with temperatures Friday only in the low-30s. The real chill takes place overnight, with lows dropping into the mid-teens as Arctic air keeps pumping in!

NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 7, 2020

NYC, Rain, Storms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , ,

We start this weekend with a high wind warning as a strong low pressure center passing overhead. A much colder air mass will be on the heels of this passing storm. A brief calm Saturday spell punctuates an otherwise active pattern with another storm approaching to start next week. High temperatures during this time will generally be at or above normal (~40°F) with a big warmup by Monday.

Rest of today – high temperatures have already peaked in the mid-50s but the remainder of the day will see a continuing fall in temperatures through the 40s and 30s as strong cold air advection kicks in. This is due to a potent low pressure system (972 mb and strengthening) passing overhead. The tight pressure gradient around this low, in addition to a well-mixed layer forming with winds aloft at 50 knots mixing down will yield very strong winds. A high wind warning is in effect this afternoon when sustained winds could easily be in the 30-40 mph range with gusts exceeding 60 mph in places. Winds will abate overnight as the low exits northeast, temperatures will keep falling all the way into the upper-20s with cold air advection driven by winds from the northwest continuing.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 1 PM today. Note the tight packing of isobars around the 972 mb low pressure center moving just north of the area.
  • NAM model’s forecast sounding for 1PM today. Very strong unidirectional wind profile is indicated, with winds just above the surface in excess of 50 knots. A well-mixed layer is evident as well up to about 850 mb where winds look to range between 55-65 knots. This should allow strong gusts and sustained winds to make it to the surface.

Saturday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should yield a mostly sunny day. With overnight lows in the upper-20s, high temperatures will be decidedly colder around 40°F. Overnight lows remain on the cold side around 30°F.

Sunday – clouds increase with high temperatures in low-40s as the next frontal system approaches. Winds will shift to the south. There is a chance for rain/snow mix then rain during the day. Overnight lows in the mid-30s.

Monday – prolonged southerly flow will help kick temperatures up to the low-50s as the frontal system slows in its approach. This will also bring prolonged chances for rain. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Feb 3, 2020

Climate, NYC, Rain, Snow, Weather Update, Weekend, , ,

The groundhogs were unanimous in their proclamation of an early spring, but do their predictions jive with climate forecasts? Either way, the first week of February will be an active one with multiple storms impacting the area. Temperatures are forecast to start much above normal in the mid-50s, then taper down to being a touch above normal in the low-40s. Most of the precipitation that falls should be in the form of rain, though overnight periods could produce mixed precipitation.

Rest of today – Early clouds should give way to more sunny skies later in the day. High temperatures will be mild, in the mid-50s as a stationary front slowly lifts north as a warm front into the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Tuesday – High temperatures in the low-50s. The warm front mentioned above stalls out, then returns as a cold front. This pattern brings the potential for some light rain showers. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Wednesday – high pressure builds in briefly, and should give us some reprieve from rain, however, north winds will cool things off with highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows drop into the low-30s as a second, stronger storm system takes aim at the area. This one could start off as wintry mix and sleet overnight for NYC.

Thursday – any accumulation of wintry mix should get washed away as this second storm system lingers and produces rain during the course of the day Thursday. Mostly cloudy otherwise as highs climb into the low-40s. Temperatures currently forecast to remain steady for the most part overnight with onshore flow.

Are the Groundhogs Right?
Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlooks for the second half of February and the entire month suggest that the groundhogs might be on to something – at least for the eastern part of the US (especially the southeast), where above normal temperatures are being forecast. That isn’t as much the case for the western US, as you can see below.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 8-12
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for Feb 10-16
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for the whole month of February