Monthly Archives: March 2021

NYC Weather Update – Mar 29, 2021

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A cool and breezy start to the week with temperatures warming into the 50s and low-60s by midweek. A storm system arrives Wednesday bringing a round of soaking rain. An even colder air mass sweeps in behind this storm with below average highs in the upper-40s. Overnight lows going into Friday may dip into the upper-20s.

Rest of today – breezy with with northwesterly winds 20-25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect as a result. Mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s, but feeling like the mid-40s with the wind chill. Overnight lows in the low-40s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday. High pressure will be more directly overhead and ease winds in the region. Warmer flow from the southwest should help temperatures up into low-60s.

Tuesday – sunny with high temperatures in the low-60s. Much less windy with high pressure more directly overhead. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

Wednesday – slightly warmer with high temperatures in the low-60s but with mostly cloudy skies. Rain moves in later in the day, and will be moderate and steady. Overnight lows drop considerably to around 40ºF with robust cold air advection behind the cold front bringing this rain.

GFS model 850 mb temperature, height, and winds for 8PM Thursday. Much colder temperatures at this height are forecast. 850 mb temperatures are often a decent proxy for surface temperatures.

Thursday – wraparound moisture with this storm may bring about more showers Thursday morning with high temperatures in the upper-40s. Overnight lows dropping to around 30ºF as skies clear.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 26, 2021

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Possibly record-breaking warmth in the low-70s to start the weekend along with strong winds accompanying the passage of a cold front. This frontal boundary brought an outbreak of violent tornadoes to the South yesterday, but luckily will be rather tame in comparison for our region. Cooler weather will occur behind this cold front but especially behind a second storm system Sunday bringing rain. Temps will drop to the low-50s by the end of the weekend.

Rest of today – cloudy with high temperatures in the low-70s. Southwesterly winds 15-20 mph picking up later in the afternoon with gusts up to 40 mph. Overnight lows in the upper-50s as skies clear out.

GFS model 2 meter above ground temperatures and 10 meter above ground winds. Very warm temperatures in the low to maybe even mid-70s by about 3PM this afternoon.

Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows again in the upper-40s.

Sunday – mostly cloudy with rain developing in the morning and continuing in periods throughout the day. High temperatures around 60ºF. Overnight lows in the low-40s with rain ending and skies gradually clearing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday. Low pressure traversing the Great Lakes will bring the potential for a good, soaking rain.

Monday – cooler with high temperatures in the low-50s under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-30s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 19, 2021

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The rainy day yesterday yields a weekend of largely unbroken sunshine and above average warmth. Strong high pressure will dominate our sensible weather bringing stable, dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s generally and this mild trend continues into next week. In fact, this mild weather could carry on for the balance of the month. No major chances for rain to speak of in the upcoming days into mid-week next week.

Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Strong high pressure will be nearly directly overhead.

Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows again in the upper-30s.

Sunday – very similar to Saturday, sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.

  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 24-28, showing high probabilities of above normal warmth for the Northeast.
  • Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 26-Apr 1, continuing to show probabilities for above average warmth in this part of the country.

Monday – another great day with high temperatures in the mid-50s and perhaps a few more clouds. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 9, 2021

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A surge of warmth is coming today and late this week, with highs near or in the 60s. This will be punctuated briefly by a cooler day Wed in the mid-50s, which is still almost 10ºF above normal this time of year. Enjoy the warmth while it lasts because there will be a colder pattern next couple of weeks, starting as soon as this weekend.

Rest of today – warm and sunny with high temperatures around 60ºF. Overnight lows drop to around 40ºF with a backdoor cold front moving through overnight.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Tuesday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move through, leading to a slightly cooler day tomorrow before temperatures rebound again late in the week.

Wednesday – the backdoor cold front’s primary impact will be to make Wednesday cooler, in the mid-50s, with a good amount of sun. Overnight lows will be in the mid-60s.

Thursday – this is when the warmth really surges with the backdoor cold front returning northeast as a warm front. Behind this, south winds will lead to temperatures rising well into the mid-60s. The only cap on temperatures will be possible partly sunny cloud cover. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

  • Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day temperature outlook for 3/14-3/18. Much of the country is likely to see colder than normal temperatures.
  • Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook for 3/18-3/22. The cool conditions look set to continue.

Friday – a cold front approaches the region from the west. Ahead of this, temperatures remain warm in the mid-60s. A chance of rain will accompany the passage of the front. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows dropping into the mid-40s. Temperatures will continue to drop through weekend.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mar 5, 2021

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We have a cool start to most of the weekend with gradual warming trend taking place as high temperatures move up through the upper-30s into the low-40s. High pressure will be dominating sensible weather with lots of sun and calm conditions. This high remains in control until late next week, when we have our next chance at rain. The center of the high will gradually shift east during this time, inducing warm, southerly/southwesterly return flow next week, continuing the warm up to the point that temperatures could reach near 60ºF by mid-week.

Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the mid-30s. Overnight lows in the upper-20s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7PM Saturday. High pressure is set to build to our west and move in.

Saturday – partly sunny with high temperatures reaching the upper-30s. Overnight lows again in the upper-20s.

Sunday – very similar to Saturday but with sunnier skies and high temperatures in the upper-30s and overnight lows in the upper-20s.

GFS model 850 mb temperature, height and winds for 10PM next Thursday. This shows a remarkable warming trend underway at this level of the atmosphere, which serves as a good proxy for surface temperatures.

Monday – warmer with high temperatures in the low-mid 40s under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

NYC Weather Update – Mar 1, 2021

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March brings in week of great contrasts, typical of a transition into spring. Periods of rain off and on today before a plunge in temperatures going into Tuesday. Strong northwesterly winds will accompany the cold as the pressure gradient tightens around the departing low bringing rain today. Temps rebound into the upper-40s midweek but drop back towards end of week into the upper-30s.

Rest of today – periods of rain mostly before noon. Breezy with northwest winds increasing into the 15-20 mph by later in the day. Temperatures start dropping with these winds kicking in after noon bringing on strong cold air advection. Clouds clear towards the overnight when lows are expected to drop into low-20s.

GFS model 2-meter above ground level temperatures, and 10-meter above ground level winds at 7AM Tuedsay.

Tuesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-30s. Strong northwest winds in the 20-30 mph range with gusts above 45 mph possible. Overnight lows in the low-30s.

Wednesday – high temperatures rebound quickly to near 50ºF with winds subsiding and mostly sunny skies. Overnight temperatures dropping into the mid-30s.

GFS model surface precipitation, and 1000-500 mb thickness for Thursday at 11AM. The blue thickness lines over much of the northeast indicate a return to below normal temperatures on the way.

Thursday – temperatures cooling a touch back into the mid-40s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows dropping back into the upper-20s.