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WxChallenge Caribou, ME (KCAR) Day 7 High Temperatures – Nov 4, 2018

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What follows is a discussion lab that I wrote for this past week’s WxChallenge forecast competition as part of Penn State University World Campus’ METEO 410 capstone class in weather forecasting. I’m sharing this to give folks a glimpse into the forecasting process we’ve been learning, and because this discussion lab garnered some plaudits from my instructor for providing a really good analysis with attention to detail.

Model Guidance

12Z NAM MOS and 18Z GFS MOS (model output statistics) today agreed on a high temperature of 46°F for Day 7 (06Z Thursday to 06Z Friday). 00Z Wednesday’s NBM run was forecasting 44°F. 18Z EKDMOS shows ~46°F in the 50th percentile, with 50°F in the 90th percentile, and 41°F in the 10th percentile.

MOS forecasts October 31, 2018
National Blend of Models (NBM) – a consensus MOS product
EKDMOS (Ensemble Kernel Density MOS), producing a probabilistic forecast of severeal different variables. This shows maximum temperatures. The green bar shows the 10th percentile, red bar the 50th percentile, and blue bar the 90th percentile

Synoptic Set Up

By Thursday, the cold front of the occluded low that will bring precipitation Wednesday is forecast to have pushed through KCAR. During this frontal passage, winds will veer from the SSE towards the west. Winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, however, westerly winds would downslope a bit, enhancing wind speeds as well as warming temperatures a touch.

Weather Prediction Center (WPC) surface forecast for 00Z Friday November 2 (8PM Thursday, November 1, 2018)

Typically, we’d expect temperatures to be cooler behind a cold front due to cold air advection (CAA). Checking dynamical model forecast 2-meter temperatures, there’s not really evidence of large temperature gradients around KCAR. Even though winds will be blowing from areas of cooler temperatures towards warmer temperatures, the lack of a large gradient and low wind speeds do not suggest strong CAA.

It’s worth noting that the cold front appears to have anafrontal characteristics (precipitation behind the front seen in the WPC surface forecast) – this has implications on cloud cover behind the front. Both sets of MOS guidance show overcast conditions throughout the day. Forecast soundings suggest the main effect of the cold front is a drying out of the layer between approximately 900 mb to 600 mb initially, though by 18Z Thursday this layer dry layer tops out 700 mb (NAM has a smaller dry layer, between 900 mb and 750 mb – not pictured). Outside of this dry layer, clouds appear likely both near the surface and also from the top of the dry layer to as high as 200 mb (300 mb in NAM). In fact, it appears that the column above the dry layer will be saturated, and precipitation will be falling at upper levels during periods of the day, which explains why the dry layer shrinks from the top down as moisture works its way down through the column.

GFS forecast sounding

Closing Thoughts

Because of the likelihood of persistent, seemingly thick overcast during peak heating, I’m hesitant to side with the MOS consensus of 46°F, which I think is too warm. Even if precipitation doesn’t reach the ground, evaporational cooling may still be a factor. I think NBM’s 44°F is reasonable given the current data. I wouldn’t go too low into the low-40s because of warming impacts of downsloping westerly winds and the lack of any strong CAA.

Results

Subsequent MOS runs actually trended up, as high as 49°F. However, because of the factors outlined above, I continued to hedge down from MOS guidance, and submitted a finalized forecast of 46°F on the day. The actual high ended up being 45°F. Because I hedged down, I was able to minimize my error points for the day and ended up climbing to the top of the class leaderboard.

NYC Weather + Special Tropical Update – Sept 10, 2018

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This week kicks off with a prolonged period of unsettled weather as a warm front and a cold front both impact the area. Chances for rain will be with us through Wednesday. Conditions finally improve late in the week. We luckily will avoid direct impacts (aside from high surf) from what will be an extremely dangerous Hurricane Florence, which looks set to make landfall on North Carolina late this week. Aside from Florence, two other storms pose threats to US territories this week.

Rest of today – cloudy, with periods of rain, heavy at times, especially later in the day towards the overnight hours. High temperatures will be in the upper-60s with cool, persistent onshore flow from the east. Ahead of an approaching warm front.

Tuesday – chances for thunderstorms will persist into Tuesday, with this slow-moving warm front finally pushing through. There could be thunderstorms overnight. Then, later in the day, as the trailing cold front moves through. Once the warm front passes over, we’ll be within the warm sector of the parent low pressure system, which will allow temperatures to climb into the low-80s with a marked increase in humidity.

Wednesday – the cold front mentioned above will slow down as it approaches us and dissipate. This will lead to continuing chances for rain, and thunderstorms with temperatures again in the low-80s.

Thursday – high pressure will finally begin to build in to our north by Thursday behind the cold front above. This will lead to better conditions, with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80s.

Friday – partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low-80s again with high pressure to our north.

Florence, Isaac, and Olivia All Pose a Threat to the US

These three storms have the potential to impact the Southeastern US, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii respectively within the next week. Among these, Florence is by far the most dangerous, as it could make landfall on North Carolina as a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.

Hurricane Florence

Over the past day or so, the picture for Florence has become much clearer. Various forecast models have come into remarkable alignment on both the overall track and intensity of Florence over the next 5 days, which means bad news for the Carolinas. The picture looks grim, with Florence set to make landfall as a very strong Category 4 storm packing sustained winds of 145 mph. Florence has nothing but warm water ahead of it, and there should be minimal impact ot this storm from vertical wind shear. Even if the storm weakens due to eyewall replacement cycles prior to landfall, that would only serve to increase the radius of its damaging winds. No matter how you slice it, Florence is likely to bring deadly storm surge and risk of life-threatening flash flooding and inland flooding. The fact that its forecast track slows to a crawl after landfall makes the flooding risk inland especially serious.

Hurricane Isaac

Isaac is a compact storm, which is leading to some uncertainty regarding both its track and intensity forecast. Small tropical cyclones are subject to wild swings in intensity both ways, which can be unpredictable at times. As of now, Isaac is forecast to cross the Windward Islands of the Lesser Antilles as a Category 1 storm, then continue into the Caribbean where hostile shear conditions should cause it to weaken. It is worth noting, despite the UKMET model being an outlier, that there are some signals that the storm could turn to the northwest later in the period, which could mean a threat to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Olivia

This storm continues to track towards Hawaii. Although weakening due to the influence of moderate wind shear, it is still set to hit Hawaii later this week as a strong tropical storm. The primary threat to Hawaii from Olivia will be in the form of heavy rain and flash flooding regardless of whether it makes direct landfall on one of the main islands.

NYC Weekend Weather + Hurricane Matthew Update – Oct 6, 2016

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The main weather headline for this weekend was going to be about possible impacts from Hurricane Matthew. I’m glad to report it now appears the storm will miss us, but the good news for us translates for doubly bad news for Florida. We went from a possible hurricane/tropical storm impact this weekend to a weekend where we expect to see some decent, fall-like weather.

Rest of today – sunny with a high temperature in the low-70s.

Friday – sunny, slightly warmer with highs in the mid-70s. High pressure remains anchored over the area, blocking the progress of Matthew northward, and also giving us great weather.

Saturday – a cold front will approach from the west, clouds will increase overnight and there is a chance for rain on Saturday. Mostly cloudy otherwise with highs in the low-70s. Part of the reason Matthew is expected to miss the Northeast is because this frontal boundary was faster to approach than was forecast earlier. This means it will have a role in pushing Matthew out to sea, instead of lifting it north towards the coast here.

Sunday – noticeably cooler with below average high temperatures only in the mid-60s and skies clearing.

Hurricane Matthew No Longer a Threat to the Northeast – Could Hit Florida Twice

As of 11AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center‘s advisory showed that Hurricane Matthew had restrengthened into a robust Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. It had just moved past New Providence island in the Bahamas moving northwest at 14mph, having avoiding a direct landfall on the highly populated island where the capital Nassau sits. However, as we get more information in, it’s becoming clear that some areas of Haiti really got the worst case scenario. This video footage from the small town of Jeremie on the northern side of the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula shows the catastrophic damage Matthew caused. Jeremie took a direct hit from the storm’s northeastern eyewall, the strongest part of the storm, as Matthew made landfall on Haiti as a Category 4 with 145mph winds. This gives you an idea of the raw power of the storm that’s now headed for Florida.

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Satellite image of Matthew at 11AM EDT October 6th, 2016. Below: radar imagery from Miami shows Matthew’s eye.

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Outlook for Matthew

Luckily for us, long-range forecast models show that Matthew no longer poses a threat to the Northeast. The flip side is that a fairly unprecedented scenario might befall Florida. Some models are suggesting that after Matthew moves offshore of the Carolinas, it may execute a large cyclonic loop, with the possibility of making a second landfall on South Florida later next week, albeit as a much weaker storm. First, Floridians all up and down the east coast, will have to contend with a dangerous Category 4 storm scraping along the shore or maybe making direct landfall. The coast scraper scenario would result in worse outcomes for Georgia and South Carolina, since reduced interaction with land will mean a stronger storm, as well as higher storm surge.

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NYC Weather + Hurricane Matthew Update – Oct 3, 2016

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After a gloomy, but appropriately fall-like start October, this week looks like it will bring much improved weather. Temperatures are expected to be just below or at normal for the majority of the week. The big question mark in the long-term for weather in our region is the progress of Hurricane Matthew, which could impact the area this coming weekend.

Tuesday – mostly cloudy to start with gradual clearing and high temperatures in the upper-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the upper-60s. High pressure anchored over southeastern Canada will give us an extended period of nice weather.

Thursday – sunny, warmer with high temperatures in the low-70s.

Friday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-70s.

Hurricane Matthew an Increasing Threat to the US East Coast

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Hurricane Matthew as captured by one of NOAA’s geostationary satellites on Monday, Oct 3 at 5PM EDT.

Hurricane Matthew poses an imminent and possibly catastrophic threat to Haiti, and portions of Eastern Cuba. Heavy rains from rain bands associated with the storm have already begun falling over Hispaniola and have hit Jamaica as well. Matthew is a potent Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds at 140mph. It is expected to bring rainfall of 8-20″ across the region, with some places receive 7-11′ of storm surge.

Matthew has displayed a number of anomalous characteristics that have defied forecasters and experts best efforts at predicting its intensity. Matthew underwent a period of rapid intensification, going from tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds in just under 36 hours. This puts Matthew in an exclusive circle of just a handful of storms in recorded history that have accomplished this feat. Even more amazing, Matthew underwent this rapid intensification in the face of strong southwesterly wind shear that would typically stall a storm’s growth or weaken it.

During much of its life, a large area of intense thunderstorms has accompanied Matthew, at times exceeding the actual storm center in size. Scientists are uncertain as yet what role this feature had in Matthew’s unusual intensification. This feature has been impacting Hispaniola.

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Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Matthew as a strong Category 4, note the impressive area of intense thunderstorms east of the storm’s core.

Outlook for Hurricane Matthew

Matthew is expected to either skirt the extreme southwest peninsula of Haiti or make landfall there, then perhaps a secondary landfall on Eastern Cuba. The more interaction Matthew’s circulation has with the high terrain of these regions, the weaker it will get before entering the wide open, and warm waters of the Bahamas. It is expected to maintain major hurricane status (maximum sustained winds greater than 115mph) throughout most of the 4-5 forecast period.

Since even earlier today, major forecast models have come into much better agreement about the path of Matthew in the longer term. The unfortunate news is that the models have settled on solutions that push Matthew further to the west than previous runs. This dramatically increases the chances of a landfall somewhere on the Southeastern US, with Florida also in the range of possible tracks. Should this scenario unfold, we would be spared from a direct landfall here, but would still receive a storm of considerable strength with strong winds and heavy rains possible.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 27, 2015

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We have a simply splendid weekend on tap. Temperatures will be on the upward trend through the end of this week and into the weekend. The warm trend will continue into the beginning of next week, along with a return of more humid, dog days of summer type weather. Keeping an eye on the tropics, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the future of Tropical Storm Erika, which could effect the U.S. East Coast in the long term.

Rest of today – beautiful, sunny skies with high temperatures in the low-80s. High pressure to the west is firmly in control, delivering this pleasant, seasonable weather.

Friday – almost a carbon copy of today, high temperatures in the low-80s with even fewer clouds as the high pressure center will be parked right over us.

Saturday – as the high pressure from the end of the week moves offshore and weakens, a subtropical high pressure center begins to take to control. This setup favors a warmer, more humid regime. Winds will shift to the southwest and temperatures will begin to climb into the mid-upper 80s.

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Sunday – a longer term trend of warm and humid weather, typical of late summer, will continue Sunday. Temperatures will again be in the upper-80s. This trend looks to continue well into next week.

Tropical Storm Erika

A tropical wave that moved offshore of West Africa late last week has tracked across the Atlantic, strengthening along the way to become the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. Tropical Storm Erika, like its predecessor Danny, is having trouble maintaining its strength due to the influence of dry air and hostile northwesterly wind shear. Due to this shear, Erika’s center of circulation is actually still somewhat exposed (see below), and displaced away from its area of heaviest thunderstorms, which is concentrated in the southeastern quadrant of the storm.

The long term prospects for the storm are highly uncertain due to a number of factors. Erika looks to be tracking over Puerto Rico and may interact with Hispaniola (bringing much needed rain), which would significantly weaken the already feeble storm. This could lead to it dissipating entirely. However, should the storm make it past this area of high wind shear and possible land interaction, it’ll end up in the very warm waters around the Bahamas. This would provide the fuel for it to intensify quickly into a hurricane which could then threaten Florida and the East Coast. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Satellite image of Erika, with exposed center of circulation circled in red
Satellite image of Erika, with exposed center of circulation circled in red

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 20, 2015

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Unsettled weather will be a trend for the end of this week and into the weekend as a cold front pushes through the region. Friday is shaping up to be the worst day with heavy rain with a risk for flash flooding. Conditions improve somewhat Saturday and Sunday, although a chance for showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either day.

Rest of today – slight chance of showers or thunderstorms persists through this afternoon, though the best chances remain west of the Hudson, as was the case yesterday. We’ve hit a humid highin the mid-80s with a mix of sun and clouds above.

Friday – a cold front will be pushing through during the course of the day Friday. As the frontal boundary approaches overnight and into the early morning hours Friday, a slow moving band of heavy rain is expected to form and track from north to south across the area. It appears likely that the heaviest rain will fall in a narrow band during the early morning hours, and that things may already be drying out by the AM rush. High temperatures will be cooler than average with the cloud cover and rain, near 80.

Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
Satellite image of the storm that will be bringing us some heavy rain Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday
High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar for 3AM EDT Friday

A chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Friday. By the end of the day, some areas could pick up between 1-2″ of rain, raising the risk of some flash flooding.

Saturday – although high pressure will be building once the cold front passes on Friday, a chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on the backside of this front. Temperatures will again be below normal with mostly cloudy skies and a high in the low-80s.

 

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Sunday – showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out for Sunday, which will end up being nearly identical to Saturday in sensible weather with high temperatures in the low-80s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weather Update & TS Bill – Jun 16, 2015

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We’ve certainly seen plenty of rain during the month of June, yet the NYC region remains in an area of moderate drought as of last Thursday. However, this does not reflect the rain that fell overnight Sunday into Monday. After a gloomy start to the week, we get a break of decent weather tomorrow, before another possible round of rain Thursday. The week ends with some drying out and improving conditions.

Rest of today – highs should top out in the upper-70s to around 80 today, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Storms have already formed to our west over northeastern Pennsylvania, but there is a stabilizing marine air layer over NYC and points east, so these storms may yet break apart before reaching us.

 

High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 1PM today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar for 1PM today.

Wednesday – skies will clear rapidly overnight and lead to a sunny, dry, and pleasant day on Wednesday. Highs should be near 80. The high pressure creating these pleasant conditions will not stay around long, as another warm front approaches from the west.

Thursday – will look a lot like today, with mostly cloudy skies, and a potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as a warm front nears the region. Highs will be a bit cooler in the mid-70s with the influence of clouds and a southeasterly flow off the ocean ahead of the warm front.

Friday – the warm front from Thursday is followed quickly by a cold front passing Friday morning. Behind this, high pressure takes control and brings decent weather for the first half of the weekend. Highs Friday should be in the low-80s with clouds and sun.

 

Tropical Storm Bill

Over the weekend, a disturbance organized over the western Gulf of Mexico, and by last night it had consolidated and intensified enough to be designated the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s second named tropical cyclone – Tropical Storm Bill. Bill will be making landfall imminently in Texas as a moderate strength tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60mph.

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Bill about to make landfall on the central Texas Gulf Coast
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Bill about to make landfall on the central Texas Gulf Coast

However, for people living in the path of Bill, it is not the wind but rather the potential for dangerous flash flooding that is the primary concern with this storm. Bill is forecast to bring as much as 10″ of rain over the next few days to parts of Texas, and upwards of 6″ for a wide swath of Oklahoma and Missouri. As you may recall, some of these areas were the scene of deadly flooding just a few weeks back, and the arrival of a rainmaker like Bill is most unwelcome for these areas that are still in the midst of recovering. Moisture from Bill will eventually work its way into our region, but in a much less intense way.

Forecast rainfall totals for TS Bill
Forecast rainfall totals for TS Bill

NYC Weather Update – May 11, 2015

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This week will be a tale of two airmasses, starting with a warm, moist, maritime tropical one, and transitioning to a more seasonable, cool, dry, continental polar airmass (don’t be alarmed, polar refers to the origin of this airmass, not necessarily the temperatures, although some light frost might occur later this week far inland). In terms of sensible weather, you will notice a marked change between warm, humid, summer-like weather Monday and Tuesday, and cool, windy, and crisp spring-like conditions to end the week.

Rest of today – basically a repeat of Sunday, high temperatures topping out in the low-80s. There is a very slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the inland areas west of NYC where some instability might develop from daytime heating. South-facing shores will be noticeably cooler and cloudier due to an onshore wind from the south off the ocean.

Tuesday – some fog and clouds early, then mostly cloudy with a chance for rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures remain much above normal in the low-mid 80s.

Wednesday – the aforementioned cold front makes its passage, and brings in its wake a return to more seasonable weather. Average temperatures for this time of year are only around 65ºF, and that’s just about where we will end up on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. There will be a noticeable wind from the northwest as well, making it feel extra crisp.noaad3

Thursday – sunny and dry, with a slight rebound in temperatures into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather & West Coast Storm – Dec 2, 2014

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It’s been a up and down week for weather in NYC, with Monday starting out in the mid-60s, then a colder mid-week that featured some mixed precipitation and rain. The end of this week will feature rain and slightly warmer temperatures by Saturday, then a return to colder conditions Sunday into next week. I’m also going to point out some of the spectacular weather brought on by a huge Pacific storm that hit California this week.

Thursday – the remainder of today will be pleasant and sunny, though cold with high temps only in the low 40s.

Friday – clouds will begin to build overnight tonight ahead of the a storm system moving in from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. There is a small chance for scattered showers, otherwise expecting a cloudy day with highs in the mid-40s.

Saturday – rain should overspread the area by Friday night into Saturday. This storm system will be drawing on energy and moisture from the Pacific storm that slammed California earlier this week (discussed below). Combined with influx of Gulf moisture, this setup favors a moderate to at times heavy rain event for Saturday. Temperatures will rise steadily ahead of this storm system as it pushes warm air up. High temperatures Saturday should reach into the mid-50s despite rain and clouds.

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GFS model output for overnight Friday into Saturday

Sunday – rain should end overnight Saturday, and high pressure from Canada should quickly build in behind this storm system. The positioning of this high pressure, along with the exiting low, will make for a tight pressure gradient, which should allow for stiff northwest winds perhaps in the 15-25mph range. Temperatures will drop back into the low 40s with the arrival the colder Canadian air.

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GFS model output for Sunday night

Monday – the storm system from Saturday will move offshore, but it appears from model runs that there’s some chance the storm lingers. As the high pressure from Sunday moves off to the northeast, the clockwise flow behind it may draw this offshore area of low pressure back into the area. This could lead to some rain on Monday. It’ll be a mostly cloudy day otherwise with highs in the low 40s.

Pacific Storm Slams California

Earlier this week, California got slammed by a very strong Pacific low. This storm brought on furious rains that dropped 1″+ in many areas of Northern California, with totals as high as 3-4″ in spots near the Coast Range and Sierra, as well as further south in the mountains east of San Diego. These totals represent more rainfall than had fallen in many of these areas all of last year.

You can see from the map below which overlays drought conditions (the deeper the red, the more extreme the drought, with the darkest red representing extreme/record-breaking drought) with rainfall totals from yesterday. You’ll see that much of the heaviest rain did fall over regions worst affected by drought. Sadly, though this is a case of too much of a good thing, as much of this desperately needed rainfall occurred so quickly, it will simply runoff back into the ocean.

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Map of California with drought condition layer (reds/oranges), and rainfall totals from yesterday

Stunning Satellite Images – Lake Effect Snow

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In my previous post, I discussed the ongoing epic and record breaking lake effect snowstorm that’s absolutely pummeled areas of the Great Lakes snowbelts, with the Tug Hill Plateau area south of Buffalo the worst affected. Snowfall totals yesterday were already approaching 6 feet, and this morning, the snow continues to pile up. Check out this series of satellite images and accompanying analysis. These images are simply stunning in how clearly they demonstrate the powerful effects of lake effect snow.

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Satellite image of the Great Lakes captured by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. You can clearly see bands of lake effect snow streaming across the entire region.

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Weather Prediction Center’s analysis of current surface conditions – note the low pressure center over extreme NE Ontario/SW Quebec

A close up of Lakes Erie and Ontario – luckily for these folks, winds will finally begin shifting tomorrow as that low pulls away and winds shift from ideal direction for long fetches across the lakes to the northwest.

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