Category Archives: Storms

NYC Weather Update – Aug 27, 2019

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A mid-week cold front brings a chance for rain as temperatures warm towards the end of the week. Tropical Depression Six (which could become Tropical Storm Erin) could impact local beaches with high surf for Labor Day weekend.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. Some chance for light rain in the overnight hours.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Wednesday

Wednesday – high temperatures in the low-80s, with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday – clearing skies with highs in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Friday – high temperatures remain in the mid-80s, overnight lows in the upper-60s as high pressure builds in briefly.

A Note on the Tropics

A week ago, there was talk about how this month could play out to be one of the few Augusts on record that had no tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic. That calm has been quickly shattered by the development of two tropical systems: Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression Six, which may become Tropical Storm Erin. While TD Six won’t impact the US directly, it could bring large swells and waves to beaches along the Northeast this weekend. Dorian, on the other hand, is an imminent threat to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and could cause problems for Florida this weekend into early next week.

  • tropical depression six 2019
    GOES East satellite image of Tropical Depression Six
  • GOES East satellite image of Tropical Storm Dorian

NYC Weather Update – Aug 19, 2019

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We begin this week with some typical “dog days” of summer heat. Shower and thunderstorm chances stick around for the first half of the week with the heat and humidity providing necessary instability. A more organized threat for possibly severe thunderstorms emerges Wednesday into Thursday with a pronounced cold front forecast to move through. Behind this frontal boundary, a refreshingly cool and dry air mass is expected to take hold for the weekend.

Rest of today – hot, humid, with high temperatures in the low-90s. Heat index values in the upper-90s. Partly cloudy with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon around 5-6PM as a prefrontal trough nears. Some storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Tuesday – still hot but a touch drier, as a cold front pushes south overnight into Tuesday. High temperatures around 90°F. Could maybe see a scattered thunderstorm still pop up but chances are lower relative to today with less humidity and instability to work with. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Wednesday – the cold front passing through Tuesday lifts back north as a warm front on Wednesday. Temperatures remain warm in the upper-80s. Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms possible late in the day as a cold front pushes through. If this front pushes through faster than forecast, in the late afternoon or early evening, there’s better chances for strong storms. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms could continue overnight with lows in the mid-70s.

Thursday – should be the last day of this spell of summer heat with high temperatures in the upper-80s possible before the cold front above clears the area. Showers and thunderstorms may linger until the front clears. Overnight lows noticeably cooler in the upper-60s behind the cold front as a cooler Canadian air mass moves through.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 5, 2019

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This weekend starts off with warm temperatures, and then will get punctuated by the passage of a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Behind this front, a cooler, drier Canadian air mass moves in with high pressure building to start next week.

Rest of today – warm, with mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the upper-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms going into Saturday.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – mostly cloudy with chances for showers and thunderstorms peaking in the late afternoon and early evening hours. High temperatures in the upper-80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances will peak late with instability and lift maximized from daytime heating and an approaching. Some of these storms could be strong in nature and with plenty of moisture available, these could bring heavy downpours. Overnight lows in the mid-70s.

Sunday – generally improving conditions with decreasing clouds and high temperatures in the mid-80s. Some showers still possible early. Overnight lows into Monday in the low-70s.

GFS Model for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, and precipitation at 2AM Monday

Monday – a nice day with high temperatures in the low-mid 80s and sunny skies as high pressure takes control. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 28, 2019

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We start the weekend with hot temperatures but some showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday should cool things off back to near-normal warmth. In general, there’s going to be enough sun this weekend to enjoy some outdoor activities. Just be prepared for a quick moving afternoon thunderstorm. Saturday’s storms could edge into the severe range.

Rest of today – hot, sunny, with high temperatures ranging in the upper-80s to low-90s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

  • Storm Prediction Center convective outlook for Saturday, showing slight risk for severe thunderstorms in NYC
  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday

Saturday – partly sunny with increasing clouds later in the day. Showers and thunderstorms possible especially in the afternoon and early evening hours when solar heating is maximized and a cold front/shortwave trough moves through the area. There is some potential for the storms to reach severe limits, with the primary threat being damaging winds. High temperatures near 90°F, with overnight lows in the low-70s.

Sunday – cooler, with high temperatures in the mid-80s but mostly sunny skies. There’s also a chance for showers and thunderstorms with a second cold front pushing through during the day, but coverage will be more scattered and storms are expected to be weaker if they form due to lack of upper-air support and less favorable conditions for instability. Overnight lows noticeably cooler, in the mid-60s.

GFS model output for 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure, precipitation for 8AM Monday

Monday – a gem of a day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows back into the upper-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 21, 2019

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Lingering showers and cloudiness should clear the area later today. Summer officially starts today and a welcome pattern change will coincide with this, giving us excellent weather this weekend. A break from the rain with lots of sunshine is in store. Upper level ridging should block any inclement weather from hitting until a weak storm system passing late Monday into Tuesday.

Rest of today – skies gradually clearing by late afternoon. High temperatures moderated by cloud cover, rising to the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s. Air mass will be drying out behind a cold front passing today.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – sunny with highs in the low-80s. High pressure building over Ontario and Canada should keep things nice and calm. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Sunday – another sunny day with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

GFS model output of 500 mb heights and vertical vorticity valid for 8PM Monday

Monday – mostly sunny with increasing clouds late and high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with chances for rain.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 13, 2019

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A cold front that pushed through overnight leaves us with some cool, crisp air to start the weekend. The first half of the weekend will be characterized by plenty of sun before a slow moving frontal system approaches later in the weekend. This will bring back chances for showers and thunderstorms going into next week when it appears an active weather pattern could take root.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. A post-frontal trough may touch off a few isolated storms later in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday, showing high pressure off the coast of NC

Saturday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. High pressure takes hold off the Southeast US coast, with clockwise return flow bringing some warmer air this way. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Sunday – with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, clouds increase and chances for showers and thunderstorms do also. High temperatures should still be mild in the low-80s. As the Overnight lows in the mid-60s with rain chances continuing.

NAM output of 1000-500 mb thickness, surface pressure and precipitation for 8PM Sunday.

Monday – the frontal boundary that approaches from the northwest weakens and stalls out. This is partly due to flow at the upper levels flattening out/becoming somewhat parallel to the front’s orientation, and partly due to the high pressure that by this time will become anchored over Bermuda. Multiple waves of low pressure are forecast to move along this stalled front bringing another day that holds chances for showers and thunderstorms. Prolonged southwest/westerly flow ahead of the cold front which really slows down should allow temperatures to reach the mid-80s despite more cloud cover and precipitation. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with yet more rain possible.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 7, 2019

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High pressure will build over southwestern Quebec this weekend, and this will be the predominant influence on sensible weather in the area. This should result in the first rain-free weekend in quite a while, so get out and enjoy it if you can. By the beginning of next week, rain comes back into the picture. Temperatures through the period will be at or slightly above average in the upper-70s.

Rest of today – filtered sun through a deck of higher clouds appears to be on the order of the day with a cold front stalling out and becoming stationary to our south. No rain though! High temperatures around 80°F. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. That big area of high pressure over Quebec will be bringing us some sunny skies for a change.

Saturday – this will be the best day of the weekend with sunny skies as high be pressure builds north and high temperatures staying in the low-80s. Overnight lows again in the mid-60s.

Sunday – still a good day for being outside with more clouds expected and becoming mostly cloudy late. High temperatures in the upper-70s with overnight lows in the low-60s.

NAM output for 2PM Monday, by this time, it appears that a cold front bringing showers along with it will be nearing the area.

Monday – the next storm system comes through with a cold front forecast to pass Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances look to be sometime in the afternoon at this point. High temperature in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 31, 2019

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We’ll get a much needed respite from deluging rains at least for part of the weekend as high pressure initially takes hold of the weather. This should give us two days to start with slightly above average warmth and mostly sunny skies. By Sunday, the next storm system to affect the region will be closing in and we can expect more rain and thunderstorm chances. Timing of this system now appears to clear the area by Monday and result in cooler but sunny conditions starting next week.

Rest of today – early fog has burned off and we’re in line to have a nice day with sunny skies and high temperatures topping out in the low-80s except at the immediate coast where a sea breeze is expected to develop with onshore flow forecast later in the day. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – another great day with temperatures in the low-80s (except again at the coasts with sea breezes) and mostly sunny skies. Clouds on the increase late and overnight with lows again in the low-60s.

NAM (North American Model) output for 500 mb vorticity and heights on Sunday 8PM showing a pronounced upper low over James Bay in Canada with a trough extending into the Ohio Valley. This will provide upper level divergence and instability to spur storms on Sunday.

Sunday – a warm front is forecast to push through overnight into Sunday and set the stage for rain and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Temps probably topping out a touch cooler in the upper-70s with more clouds hanging around. Overnight lows around 60°F.

Monday – at this time, expecting the aforementioned cold front to sweep through the region before the day Monday. That should result in cooler highs in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 24, 2019

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The long holiday weekend appears to be mainly dry, and even features a day that could make for a good beach getaway. We do have a chance for rain overnight Saturday into Sunday but this shouldn’t be a damper on anyone’s plans. Sunday’s shaping up to be the warmest day of the weekend although Memorial Day itself may end up being the nicest all around day.

Rest of today – breezy and sunny with high temperatures in the mid-70s. The strong pressure gradient between a departing surface low and a high pressure center moving east from the Great Lakes is what’s causing these breezy conditions. Winds should die down overnight as the high moves overhead and the pressure gradient relaxes. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Friday

Saturday – as the high pressure continues moving east, clouds will increase due to the influence of an advancing warm front. This frontal boundary may serve as the focus for some showers and thunderstorms overnight Saturday into Sunday. High temperatures Saturday expected to be in the low-70s due to increasing cloud cover. Overnight lows in low-60s.

GFS model output for surface pressure, precipitation, 500 mb thickness valid 4PM Sunday

Sunday – we’ll be in the warm sector this day. Clouds and rain are expected to subside early and allow for temperatures to warm into the mid-80s and possibly higher. This will be the best day of the weekend to hit the beach though it’s not a lock for sunny weather all day. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Monday (Memorial Day) – anticipating this will be the best day of the weekend with sunny skies and mild temperatures in the upper-70s. Overnight lows in the low-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 17, 2019

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This weekend is shaping up to be similar to last weekend in some respects, with Saturday being a nearly ideal day with plenty of sun, while Sunday is cloudier with some chance for rain. The big difference is unlike last weekend, we’re not anticipating a coastal storm or record-breaking cold! In fact, we should see our first 80°F+ day in some time by Monday before a chance for showers and thunderstorms cools things off.

Rest of today – current visible satellite observations show clouds moving in from the west, so the sunny start to the day will give way to mostly cloudy conditions later. Temperatures will be mild with the influence of warm southwesterly winds, topping out in the mid-70s. Later in the evening, a cold front will push through, bringing a chance for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Overnight lows expected in the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2PM today

Saturday – even though we’ll have a cold front push through, sinking air behind the cold front and downsloping winds from higher terrain in the north should keep things around average for this time of year in the low-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows continue to be in the mid-50s.

NAM output for 500 mb height and vorticity, valid for 8AM Saturday. A noticeable reversal of the upper air pattern from earlier this week is visible with a deep longwave trough over the Western US, and ridging over the Eastern US. This will result in great weather for us tomorrow, while areas of the Plains downstream of the trough picture above see the potential for severe weather.

Sunday – warm front approaching from the south during the day Sunday will result in more clouds than sun, and perhaps a scattered rain shower. High temperatures still around average for this time of year in the low-70s. Overnight lows warm up into the low-60s as we enter the warm sector of the storm system approaching us from the west that’s expected to bring severe weather to parts of the Central US this weekend.

Monday – with the region forecast to be in the warm sector of the parent low shown below, and a prolonged period of southwesterly surface winds bringing warm air into the area, temperatures are expected to warm up into the low-80s. This day will have a summery feel, with some humidity to the air and a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. Overnight lows should remain mild around 60°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Monday