The rainy day yesterday yields a weekend of largely unbroken sunshine and above average warmth. Strong high pressure will dominate our sensible weather bringing stable, dry conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s generally and this mild trend continues into next week. In fact, this mild weather could carry on for the balance of the month. No major chances for rain to speak of in the upcoming days into mid-week next week.
Rest of today – windy with sunny skies and highs in the low-40s. Overnight lows in the low-30s.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. Strong high pressure will be nearly directly overhead.
Saturday – sunny with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Overnight lows again in the upper-30s.
Sunday – very similar to Saturday, sunny with highs in the mid-50s. Overnight lows in the upper-40s.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 24-28, showing high probabilities of above normal warmth for the Northeast.
Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for March 26-Apr 1, continuing to show probabilities for above average warmth in this part of the country.
Monday– another great day with high temperatures in the mid-50s and perhaps a few more clouds. Overnight lows in the mid-40s.
Although the calendar has flipped to March and we’re less than 3 weeks from the official start of spring, the weather has taken a decidedly winter-like turn as of late. This pattern will continue over the weekend and into next week. Initially, we’ll contend with 2 coastal storms that will bring chances for snow, and then enter next week with temperatures well below normal for this time of year. Sadly, this colder than normal pattern looks locked in for the next week or more
Rest of today – overcast conditions with temperatures hovering in the mid-30s. Precipitation will move back into the area by later this evening. Thermal profiles overnight point to a mix of snow/sleet at the coast with lows just around freezing. The local forecast office calls for an accumulation of 1-2″ of this wintry mess.
Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Saturday
Saturday – the wintry precipitation continues the first half of the day as the first of two coastal storms continues to impact the region. High temperatures should warm up to around 40ºF with mostly cloudy skies, and precipitation should die off later in the day. Overnight lows should be around freezing.
Sunday – starts off as a decent enough day, but a second storm will be brewing and moving offshore, impacting the area overnight into Monday. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-40s with partly sunny skies. At this point, the primary precipitation modes at the coast appears to be a rain/snow mix. Thermal profiles don’t appear cold enough to support all snow with overnight lows expected to be above freezing around 35ºF.
Global Forecast System 1000 mb – 500 mb height, pressure, thickness foreast for 6AM Monday
Monday – precipitation tapering off early in the morning as this storm is a fast-mover. Temperatures topping out in the upper-30s with mostly cloudy skies.
Colder than Normal Temperatures Ahead
Climate Prediction Center has a 6-10 day temperature outlook suggesting a colder than normal pattern for much of the country, including our area. During this time, the polar jet stream is expected to dip further south allowing colder air to penetrate into the Continental US.
A quite and mild weekend is in store for the region with high pressure in control of the weather throughout the period. Temperatures should climb steadily as winds shift and persist from the southwest. We could see high temperatures near 60ºF by Sunday.
Rest of today – clear to mostly sunny, with highs around 50.
Saturday – sunny, with high temperatures in the low-50s.
Sunday – milder, and sunny again with high temperatures in the upper-50s to near 60ºF.
Monday – clouds look to be increasing on Monday with a storm system approaching from the south expected to pass on Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler in the mid-50s.
Seasonal Climate Outlooks
As we are entering into the winter, it’s worth looking ahead at what the seasonal climate out looks are from the Climate Prediction Center.
Drought conditions are expected to improve over many areas of the nation, and the persistent moderate drought in our region is forecast to end.
Temperature and precipitation are forecast to be above normal for the region. As you’ll note from the images below, some fairly significant deviations from normal are expected across large portions of the United States, due in large part to the effects of a strong El Niño that’s been gripping the Eastern and Central Pacific for months now.
The chart below shows you the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Pacific – notice that a large swathe of the equatorial Pacific from about the international date line east is experiencing extremely warm temperatures for this time of year – a full 5ºC above normal in large areas. This is why climate forecasters can be more confident than usual in their outlooks for temperature and precipitation this season.
This will be my last post for another few weeks as I will be traveling in South America. This week, we have an active weather pattern that will lead to a series of periods of rain. Mid-week, temperatures will be well below normal (mid-40s), but towards the end of the week, through the weekend, and to begin next week, temperatures will rebound to slightly above normal (low 60s).
Today – we’ve already had a round of light to moderate rain pass through earlier this morning. The rest of the day will feature temperatures falling through the 50s, along with overcast skies and a light onshore flow. A second round of rain looks set to hit the area around the evening rush hour today.
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model output for 5PM today.
Wednesday – a raw, rainy, and cold day is in store tomorrow. A stationary front (the reason for the extended period of unsettled weather) will push through late Tuesday as a cold front. This will allow for much colder air from Canada to enter the area, which will lead to temperatures only in the mid-40s (10-15º below normal). Periods of rain are likely throughout the day and into the night.Thursday – essentially a repeat of Wednesday, with chances for rain through out the day, and cold, cloudy conditions otherwise. High temperatures again only in the mid-40s.
Friday – chances for rain continue through Friday as a warm front will be approaching from the south. Once this front pushes through, we’ll see a return to milder temperatures with highs in the low 60s (about 5-8º above normal).
The Weekend – conditions finally begin to improve on Saturday with a cold front having pushed through. Chance for precipitation dwindles, with highs in the low 60s. Sunday is even better with clear skies and warm temperatures near 60.
Warm Trend for Next Week
Climate Prediction Center has our region in an area of greater than 50% chance of above average temperatures for next week. This should translate to pleasant, spring like conditions for next week!
This upcoming week will feature some big swings in temperature, with high temperatures increasing steadily up through Thursday, when highs could 60 before a cold front swings through. Following the passage of this cold front, we dip back into the mid-40s and continue cooling into the lower-40s this weekend. The temperature trend in the medium term remains below normal, potentially well below normal even through the first week of April, as a series of cold fronts continue to allow cold Canadian air to enter the area.
Monday – an area of high pressure will yield a sparkling sunny day, but will also permit cold, Arctic air back into the region. Northwest winds combined with noticeably cold overnight lows will produce uncomfortably cold conditions. High temperatures Monday may barely break freezing. It’ll be one of the coldest day we’ve had this month.
Tuesday – also gets off to a chilly start, but high temperatures are expected to push up to around 40 (which is more than 10ºF colder than normal).
Wednesday – a clear start, but clouds will be building ahead of a warm front that will pass over the region late Wednesday. Temperatures will steadily climb to near 50, especially after the warm front passes. There will be a slight chance for rain later Wednesday in conjunction with this frontal passage.
Thursday – highs will near if not break 60, however, it is anticipated to be a overcast day with periods of rain possible throughout the day. After the warm front passes Wednesday, we’ll be firmly within the warm sector, between the warm front to our east and the approaching cold front from the west. This setup favors the influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf riding in on persistent southwesterly winds, before a dramatic shift following the cold front passing, with winds becoming west-northwest and a drop in temperatures.
Friday – high temperatures drop back in to the mid-40s, as clouds break apart and colder, dry air takes hold behind the cold front.
Below Normal Start to April
It’s close to a sure bet (70% probability) that we’ll end the month of March and start April with below normal temperatures, taking a look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecasts below. I know we’re all sick of this seemingly endless winter, but we’re still not out of the woods in terms of temperatures.
6-10 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
We’ve finally had a stretch of warmer than average weather after what seemed like an endless winter. Things are set to get even warmer tomorrow in the wake of tonight’s rain storm, before cooling off back into normal range to end the week. Another round of rain (with some mixed precipitation inland) will be impacting the area Friday into Saturday.
Rest of today – light rain falling now should increase in intensity over the course of the evening. Steady rain is expected overnight. Dense fog and low visibilities may be a problem overnight into the early morning hours, due to the influence of a saturated, warm airmass approaching an area of colder air. Overnight lows in the low 40s, with dew points around the same (fog often forms when dew point = air temperature).
Wednesday – any remaining rain should end quickly tomorrow morning. Clouds will give way to sun as high pressure begins to take hold over the area. Before too cold air gets into the area due to a northwest wind, we should see temperatures reach the mid-50s (wouldn’t be surprised if some spots hit close to 60 with the increasing daylight hours).
Thursday – another pleasant, and seasonable day, with plenty of sun and high temperatures around normal in the mid-upper 40s.
High pressure in control
Friday – one more day of decent weather, but with slightly more clouds than Thursday. Temperatures should top out around the mid-40s again. The next storm system approaches from the west and rain should begin to fall during the late evening hours. Overnight, some mixing with snow/wintry mix could occur, however, by daybreak Saturday, temperatures will be well above freezing and any mixing should return to all rain.
Saturday – a rainy day, but on the mild side with temperatures near 50.
Next storm coming Friday into Saturday
A cooldown coming
Unfortunately, after a week of normal temperatures, we are likely to see a return to below normal temperatures for the second half of March, based on the following forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center. High pressure will be dropping down from Canada again next week, leading to this greater than 60% probability of below normal temperatures. Luckily, since normal temperatures are now in the upper 40s, the below normal temperatures will not mean a return to the frigid tundra.
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook
Climate Prediction Center 1 month temperature outlook for March
