Tag Archives: cold

NYC Weather Update – Nov 17, 2014

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The main headline for weather this week will be bitterly cold temperatures that are highly abnormal (in fact, possibly record setting) for this time of the year. We’re talking lows on Wednesday morning in the low 20s in the city, teens and even single digits north and west, and wind chill values in the single digits with a stiff west wind. The cold air finally breaks this weekend, though, with the arrival of a storm system that will push warm air in from the southwest.

Tuesday – high temperatures tomorrow will only be in the mid-30s under sunny skies following the passage of a cold front that’s currently right at our doorstep. Behind this front, breezy west winds between 20-25mph will pick up with wind gusts as high as 35mph. That will translate to wind chill values in the 20s for most of the day tomorrow.

Wednesday – we could break some records for lowest maximum and minimum temperatures Wednesday. Lows overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning may only be in the low 20s, and with a west wind still kicking around 20mph, wind chill values will be in the low teens by daybreak. Temperatures won’t rebound much during the day either, with a high temperature forecast to be barely at the freezing mark.

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Thursday – temperatures should rebound considerably with the passage of a warm front late Wednesday and prior to another cold front passing later Thursday. High temperatures should reach the mid-40s. This front will be moisture-starved, so we’re not anticipating any precipitation.

Friday – temperatures will slide back into the upper 30s and low 40s after the cold front.

Warmup this Weekend

We finally snap this bitter cold spell with an influx of warm air from the Gulf streaming ahead of a storm system that will move in next Monday. This weekend should feature gradually warming temperatures, and by next Monday we could hit 60 briefly.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 14, 2014

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You can feel the chill in the air now. This cold will continue Saturday, but we’ll get a slight warmup Sunday and Monday ahead of a low pressure system moving in from the southwest. Behind that low pressure system, we get a reinforcing blast of arctic air that will be entrenched through the rest of next week. I’m also monitoring the potential for a Nor’easter just in time for the busy travel day Wednesday and through Thanksgiving.

Saturday – a cold day on tap despite ample sunshine. High temperatures will be generally in the lower 40s. There’ll be a noticeable northwest wind making it feel like it’s in the 30s.

Sunday – a milder day with warm air flowing in ahead of a low pressure system, but by warm, I mean highs only around 50. Clouds will increase throughout the day and there could be some rain Sunday night.

Monday – rain will be falling for the majority of the day, with highs in the city in the mid-40s. Monday night gets interesting with the potential for a rain/snow mix in the city, and all snow in interior regions north and west. Depending on the timing of the main slug of precipitation with this system, we could actually get some accumulating snow in the city also (the later in the night the main body of precipitation falls, the colder it will be, and the better the conditions for snow).gfs_namer_075_1000_850_thickTuesday – cold air rushes back in behind this storm on Monday and we drop back into high temperatures hovering in the low 40s.

Potential Thanksgiving Nor’easter?

In looking ahead at the long-term GFS model output, I’m noting the possibility for a possible high-impact Nor’easter that would be timed to coincide with the busiest travel day right before and then during Thanksgiving. Of course, this far out, there’s still considerable uncertainty to the forecast, so this scenario could not pan out, or the storm track could be nowhere close to where it needs to be to produce a high-impact Nor’easter. Still, it’s worth watching, as it could be a major headache for folks if it does materialize.gfs_namer_276_1000_850_thick (1)

NYC Weather Update – Nov 11, 2014

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I hope you all took advantage of this gift of incredibly warm weather that coincided with a federal holiday, because that’s going the be the last gasp of mild weather for at least the next 7-10 days. As you probably heard, we are going to get walloped by an arctic airmass the latter half of the week that will bring an abrupt end to fall temperatures and make it feel like we jumped straight into winter – I’m talking high temperatures that won’t even get out of the low 40s by week’s end. Before you ask, no this is not a polar vortex – it will be damn cold nonetheless.

Wednesday – this will be the last day we get above 60 degrees for quite a while. We are currently in a warm sector in between a warm front that pushed through earlier this week and ahead of a cold front that will be open the door to an arctic airmass swinging down from Canada. High temperatures in the Central Plains and Intermountain West where this airmass has already taken hold are ranging from the teens to the 30s. But Wednesday, we’ll still be in the mid-60s, although it won’t be as pleasant as today with a foggy and cloudy start to the day. Once the cold front below passes, clouds should clear quickly and lead to excellent conditions for radiational cooling, with low temperatures dropping into the low 40s and into the 30s in the interior areas north and west.Screen Shot 2014-11-11 at 5.49.52 PM
Thursday – it won’t be that cold just yet, with high temperatures still expected to hit the low 50s. But clouds will again increase ahead of a second, quick-moving storm system that is expected to pass through Thursday night into Friday. This will be the real arctic sledgehammer that brings seriously cold air into the region. There will be enough energy and moisture in the atmosphere for the possibility of rain/snow mix on Thursday night and even all snow in the city Friday morning.

Friday – skies should clear quickly during the day Friday, but despite all the sun, temperatures will struggle to hit the mid-40s. Arctic air will be firmly entrenched from this point on until as long as Thanksgiving!

Saturday – High pressure will be in control Saturday, high temperatures will have a difficult time hitting 40 though, because the setup of the high will favor northerly winds. gfs_namer_096_1000_850_thickSunday – yet another storm system brings us the chance for some precipitation. Behind that system – you guessed it, more cold air and temperatures that will be two standard deviations below normal for this time of year, as per our local forecast office.

For those of you who are interested in the long-term outlook, based on forecast models and the arctic oscillation index forecast, it looks like this blast of cold air will be sticking around with us for at least the next 7-10 days, and may not break until Thanksgiving. The Arctic Oscillation measures the climate pattern of winds circulating at high latitudes close to the arctic. When it is in it’s negative phase (as is about to be the case, on the right end of all the charts below), higher pressure tends to dominate over the arctic while lower than normal pressure occurs in mid-latitudes (i.e. our area). Air tends to flow from areas of high pressure towards areas of low pressure, so this pattern sets up favorable conditions for the intrusion of bitterly cold air into our region.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 7, 2014

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A gloomy looking Friday will give way to a sunny though cool weekend. Next week starts off with near normal temperatures and dry conditions, but get ready for a blast of Arctic air later in the week with high temperatures falling into the mid-40s by the end of next week.

Saturday – cool but sunny to start. High temperatures will be in the low 50s. Clouds build in advance of a passing cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sunday – a moisture starved cold front will approach from the west, and precipitation is not expected in NYC, though could see some spotty showers in interior regions. High temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid-50s.noaad3

Monday – high temperatures again in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday – another good day weather-wise with highs in the mid-upper 50s and mostly sunny skies.

We will feel the effects of a strong cold front next Wednesday. A Canadian Arctic airmass will work its way into the region following this frontal passage, leading temperatures to plummet down into the 40s!

NYC Weather Update – Oct 28, 2014

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Summary

This week will be archetypical of autumn weather, with large temperature swings in store for the region. We’ll start off with highs more characteristic of late summer near 70, though with clouds overhead, we may not top that number. A weak cold front will push through tomorrow with some chance of showers. Behind this front, temperatures will drop to more seasonable highs around 60 with dry conditions. The week ends like winter with an arctic airmass invading the region, leading to the possibility of snow and high temperatures only in the upper 40s.

Wednesday – clouds build in and showers will be possible for most of the day. Most rain should conclude by the evening hours. High temperatures will remain warm ahead of the passage of the cold front with winds from west pushing warm air ahead of the front.

Weak cold front passing through Wednesday, scattered showers possible.
Weak cold front passing through Wednesday, scattered showers possible.

Thursday – clear and sunny skies behind the cold front passing Wednesday, high temperatures cooler near 60. Overnight lows will be quite cool in the lower 40s with good conditions for radiational cooling.

Friday – clouds will increase ahead of the next storm system, and high temperatures will remain near 60.

Saturday – an intrusion of arctic air accompanying a strong, deep trough (cold front) will set the stage for what should be a raw, chilly, winter-like day. With the arctic air pumping in, high temperatures will struggle to even hit 50. In the chart below, you’ll see a height of 540 near us. Without going into too much detail, low heights generally correspond to colder temperatures, as colder air is more dense, it takes up less volume than the same mass of warmer air. A height of 540 is considered by forecasters to be important when determining precipitation type, as it indicates temperatures cold enough to support snow. That’s right – we will probably see some snow north and west of the city, and depending on the track of a secondary low that forms Saturday along the coast, we could even get some of the white stuff in NYC. This is a complex system, so it will bear watching over the next couple days.

 

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NYC Weather Update – Oct 20, 2014

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This week will be a colder repeat of last week, with a wet mid-week period, but better conditions going into the weekend.

Tuesday – an area of low pressure with an accompanying cold front moving in from the Great Lakes will give us a chance of showers, especially in the afternoon Tuesday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm up to the mid-upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – the low pressure above will spawn a secondary low off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic. This low pressure center will be the main weather-maker for the mid-week period. Forecast models point to a stubborn storm system that will meander slowly off the Northeast. Multiple bands of rain will rotate around this low. There will be enough instability with the vorticity associated with the low to allow for the possibility of thunderstorms, despite the fact that this low will be a colder core low. Temperatures will only be in the upper 50s with a unpleasant north to northeast wind.

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GFS model output for Wednesday, Oct 22, 2014 @ 8PM EDT
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GFS 500mb vorticity and height – notice the concentric circles indicating a closed low off the coast of the Northeast and New Engalnd. The darker yellows indicate areas of increased vorticity and energy.

Thursday – the rain should subside by around noon Thursday, but before all is said and done, we could get another  1-1.5″ of rain. The rainfall will mainly be concentrated to the east of the Hudson River, including NYC and Long Island. Temperatures will remain cool in the mid-50s with winds diminishing from the north and northwest.

Friday – the low will lift away, it will dry out, and clouds will diminish as temperatures also rebound back into the lower 60s to end the week.

NYC Weather Update – Apr 15, 2014

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Wet, windy, and cold conditions will predominate our weather today. We’ve already hit our high temperature for the day and will see temperatures continue to plummet throughout the course of the day as rain and the attendant strong cold front moves in later this afternoon. Gusty winds in excess of 40mph, and some rumbles of thunder are possible in the stronger rain showers.

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The heaviest rain will be this afternoon/evening, ending gradually overnight. Behind the cold front responsible for this heavy rain, a biting northwest wind will drop temperatures down into the low-mid 30s! Again, there is some small potential for snow flurries across NYC during the tail end of this storm.

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We could be looking at rainfall totals up to 2″ in the area, crazy wet for this time of year. Now, Wednesday, you’ll feel the impact of the passage of that cold front, as northwest winds will persist around 15-20mph, suppressing high temperatures in the mid-40s, much below the seasonal average.

Thursday and Friday will both be dry days with high pressure moving over the region, but high temperatures will remain below normal with an onshore breeze blowing in from the east and northeast. Overnight lows both days will remain quite cold in the mid-upper 30s. You thought you didn’t need that winter weather gear anymore, eh?

NYC Weather Update, Heavy Rain, Lunar Eclipse – Apr 13, 2014

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This extended period of pleasant weather is about to come to an abrupt halt early this week. We do have one more day of decent weather in store Monday, when high temperatures will again hit 70 under cloudy skies. You’ll notice increasingly humid conditions as a breezy south wind continues to pump Gulf moisture our way.

Tuesday gets nasty, showery rain should begin to overspread the area during the morning hours, however, the heaviest rain should occur later in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be significantly cooler Tuesday with highs around 60 due to the clouds and rain, and a stiff south wind increasing from 15mph to 25mph later in the day. As the cold front passes through the area, much colder air will flow in, overnight lows will be only in the mid 30s. There is a chance for snow flurries to occur during the night, although accumulation is unlikely.

NAM simulated radar imagery for 8PM EST Tuesday
NAM simulated radar imagery for 8PM EST Tuesday

 

Precipitable water forecast, for as much as 1.25-1.5" of rain across the area.
Precipitable water forecast, for as much as 1.25-1.5″ of rain across the area.

Wednesday you’ll feel the effects of the passage of the cold front. Although skies will be sunny, high temperatures will struggle to even top 50. The cool trend should continue until the end of the week, with highs Thursday again in the low 50s.

Sadly, due to the expected cloudy conditions, we’ll most likely not be able to see the upcoming lunar eclipse.

NYC Weather Update – March Snowstorm? Mar 21, 2014

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This is not the news any of us want to hear, but confidence is increasing for a potential late-March snowstorm to impact the NYC area next Tuesday-Wednesday. First, the weekend forecast:

Saturday

A warm front will push through early Saturday followed by a cold front later in the day, with a slim chance for precipitation. After the passage of the warm front, gusty winds will increase from the south and southwest, ushering in some much anticipated spring-like warm air. High temperatures may top 60, but with mostly cloudy skies and the influence of the wind it will feel cooler.

Sunday

Clouds will diminish Sunday, but in the wake of the cold front, temperatures will struggle to hit the low-mid 40s. Polar high pressure continues to build overnight, with low temperatures much below average only in the mid-20s!

Monday

Fair conditions with the polar high in control, temperatures will only be in the mid-30s, nearly 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tuesday and into Wednesday

An area of low pressure forecast to form offshore of the Carolinas will track into our area. Forecast models are pointing to this system rapidly strengthening with a sharp decrease in central pressure as it progresses into the waters off of Long Island. Recent model show a track closer to the 40N/70W benchmark, which increases the potential for a significant snowstorm. However, 5 days out, there’s still a good deal of uncertainty as to final track, positioning of precipitation bands, and available moisture. A track slightly further north will mean increased odds for a significant snow event, while a track too far north or south will diminish these chances.

GFS model showing a strong low pressure center consolidating southeast of Long Island around 1AM Wednesday morning.

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GEFS model (spaghetti strings show upper air circulation 552mb and 564mb). The two main bunches of the strings represent the polar and subtropical jet streams respectively. Notice the loops connecting the two streams over the our region. This is converging of energy from both streams will feed the rapidly deepening low pressure center.

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NYC Midweek Weather Update – Mar 19, 2014

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Rain is on the way this Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should be in the mid 40s around the city. We’re not expecting anything too heavy in terms of precipitation, more likely a light, showery type of event.

Here’s an infrared satellite image of the incoming low pressure system that will be our rainmaker today and tonight. Note the classic comma head formation starting to take shape, indicating a low pressure center with a trailing cold front.
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Thursday, the first day of spring, will be a dry day, even though the cold front will push through, easterly winds associated with the departing low pressure center will keep overnight temps up. Highs on Thursday should be around 50 with mostly sunny skies.

Friday promises to be another dry day with sunny skies and a high right around average for this time of year at 50.

Saturday another weak low pressure system will move through and bring a chance for rain. The cold front coming along with this low pressure center will have a bigger bite: a polar high pressure will slide down behind this front, leading again to much colder temps Sunday-Tuesday.

By Monday & Tuesday, we’re looking at temperatures only in the upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below average. A storm system is forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico and track across the Southeast, moving offshore of the Atlantic Tuesday. There is still uncertainty as to whether we’ll see precipitation, but if we do, temperature profiles will support snow showers/flurries.

Here’s the GFS Model’s forecast for the storm on Tuesday. It will pass well offshore of NYC, but may still precipitation bands may still rotate around it far enough north to impact us.

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