Tag Archives: cutoff low

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 19, 2019

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A slow-moving storm system will impact the area with potentially heavy rain that could trigger flash flooding overnight into the first part of Saturday. Precipitation chances die down significantly with the passage of this round of rain as a dry slot works into the area. However, lingering chances for showers still exist as this storm makes a slow exit to the east. Temperatures during this period are forecast to be at or above normal.

Rest of today – cloudy, but still warm with temperatures rising to about 70°F. We will be in the warm sector with the influence of southerly winds during the day. Rain chances increasing during the evening hours. Steady rain is forecast late into the overnight hours with temperatures. Some of the rain could be heavy. Thunderstorms are also possible, and these would increase the risk of flash flooding. Overnight lows around 60°F.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday

Saturday – the north-south orientation of the cold front that will provide lift for these storms overnight will align well with the prevailing southerly flow through most of the atmosphere. The slow eastward progression of this front will allow storm cells to train leading to more flooding potential as rain continues Saturday morning. The cold front associated with this slow-moving low should push through by the afternoon. A dry slot should cut off any precipitation for a while during this time frame. High temperatures should be in the low-60s. Overnight lows should fall into the low-50s behind the cold front.

GFS model output of 850 mb winds and relative humidity for 2PM Saturday, notice the pronounced area of browns, indicating very dry air. This is what is referred to as a “dry slot“, which can often follow on the heels of cold fronts associated with mature mid-latitude cyclones.

Sunday – the upper low associated with this storm system is expected to cutoff (become detached from primary westerly steering currents), resulting in a system that will meander and take a long while to exit the region. As such, Sunday is expected to remain cloudy, with a chance for some showers. High temperatures should be similar to Saturday in the low-60s. Overnight lows will again be around the low-50s.

Monday – temperatures warming up into the upper-60s, but yes, that cutoff low still lingers! Chance for showers continues in the morning. Clouds finally decreasing later and overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Mother’s Day – May 6, 2016

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It has been a long week of cool, wet, and dreary weather, but the end is in sight. A series of pesky waves of low pressure and storms have been impacting the region. The last of these, a persistent cutoff low that has spun off a few bands of moderate to heavy rain earlier today, will slowly weaken get absorbed into an incoming frontal boundary. This should result in a decent Mother’s Day.

Rest of today – cool, cloudy, with a high in the low-mid 50s. Another round of round of rain looks to impact the region around 7PM this evening.

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Saturday – mostly cloudy, though there is a possibility of breaks in the clouds. Slight chance of some occasional showers, but nothing as heavy as today. High temperatures in the low-mid 60s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – starts off cloudy with a lingering chance for showers, but skies should clear fairly quickly later in the day, which should result in high temperatures in the mid-60s.

Monday – the first mostly sunny day we’ll have seen in over a week, with high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s.

NYC Weather Update – May 2, 2016

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This week will be marked by a prolonged period of unsettled weather with a chance of rain basically at any time during the week, giving May a rather dour start. However, the rain is very much needed as we are entering into the growing season with a deficit in overall rainfall. Due to the nearly continuous stretch of cloudy weather, temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal for this time of year.

Rest of today – cloudy and cool with high temperatures in the upper-50s and a chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm through out the day.

Tuesday – overnight, a more substantial batch of rain will arrive with a wave of low pressure riding up the east coast along a nearly stationary frontal boundary. Unsettled weather continues during the day Tuesday, but chances for rain drop substantially in the afternoon. High temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer, in the low-60s.

Wednesday – we’re going to be sandwiched between the departing frontal boundary from Tuesday and another low pressure system over the Great Lakes. This will result in yet more clouds and a chance of showers during the day.

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Thursday – that low pressure over the Great Lakes transfers its energy to a low pressure that will form off the coast of the Delmarva going into Thursday. Then this coastal low will just kind of spin around aimlessly in our vicinity since it will be cutoff from steering currents. This means it will be the main driver of rain activity towards the end of the week. At any point, an impulse of energy rotating around this low could spin up a band of showers. Temperatures Thursday remain in the low-60s.

Friday – basically a clone of Thursday due to the aforementioned nearly stationary coastal low.