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NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather, Eyes on Irma – Sep 1, 2017

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It will definitely feel like the end of summer this weekend as temperatures will be much below average for this time of the year. The remnants of Harvey are also likely to put a damper on weekend activities Saturday night through a decent chunk of Sunday. Labor Day Monday itself looks like a gem. In the long term, I’m keeping tabs up Hurricane Irma, which worries me with its potential to affect the East Coast.

Rest of today – cool, with a Canadian high pressure center to our north-northwest, we’ll feel a refreshing north wind that will diminish through the day. High temperatures are only forecast to hit 70ºF or so even with sunny skies, 10ºF+ below normal for this time of year.

Saturday – temperatures remain cool in the uppper-60s with an easterly onshore flow ahead of an approaching warm front associated with the remnants of Harvey. Overrunning clouds will move in before rain chances build up overnight.

Sunday – rain lingers into the day on Sunday before ending by the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s as we get some warmer return flow behind the storm with high pressure setting up to our southwest.

Monday – the warming pattering continues with highs returning to around normal in the low-80s with sunny skies. This is the best day for your holiday weekend grilling, and should be excellent viewing conditions for the annual West Indian Day Parade and carnival.

 

Hurricane Irma – possible threat to the East Coast?

We’ve entered the peak of the hurricane season and right on the toes of Harvey we have Hurricane Irma which put on an impressive display of strengthening the last couple days wen it went from a tropical storm to Category 3 major hurricane. It’s weakened a slight bit but conditions are still favorable for it re-strengthen into a powerful Category 3 of 4 storm before making an approach on the Lesser Antilles.

What is concerning to me is the storm is forecast to take a jog to the southwest over the weekend. The further south and west this storm gets before it starts the process of curving back out to sea at a higher latitude, the greater the chance that it could impact the East Coast of the US. There is still a lot of time so things could definitely change, but it is worth noting that current forecasts favor a more southerly track, enhancing the risk to us. I’ve seen GFS model runs show the storm make direct landfall on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. As of this morning, the GFS backed off of this type of scenario. It does bear watching though.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 28, 2017

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Nice weather from the weekend continues today. Chance for rain on Tuesday. Temperatures remain below normal through the week except Thursday. Labor Day weekend looks to start off like autumn.

Rest of today – clouds this morning expected to dissipate somewhat. Below normal temperatures with highs in the upper-70s.

Tuesday – a disturbance off the coast of northeast Florida has the potential to develop into Tropical Storm Irma. Regardless of whether the storm successfully undergoes tropical cyclogenesis, it is still anticipated to bring us some tangible weather impacts. This would be in the form of some rain especially later in the day as it makes a transition to an extra-tropical storm.

Easterly onshore winds from this storm to our south will suppress high temperatures in the low-70s and give us a mostly cloudy day.

Wednesday – unlike Tropical Storm Harvey, the storm above will accelerate quickly out to the Atlantic, so Wednesday should turn out to be a pretty decent day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back to the upper-70s.

Thursday – a cold front will pass through the area during the day and could trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. Warmer air ahead of the cold front should give us about average high temperatures in the low-80s.

 

Peak Hurricane Season

We’re on the cusp of the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, which typically begins around late August and lasts through till late September. This period typically sees the highest oceanic surface temperatures (due to the specific heat of water being relatively high, there’s a lag in time between peak solar heating of summer and actual peak ocean temperatures), which in ups the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Not surprisingly, we’ve got Harvey still devastating the Texas coast, about to re-emerge over open water before making a second landfall later this week. We’ve also got a possible tropical cyclone off of the Southeast coast and another tropical wave moving offshore of Africa that could develop into a tropical storm as it moves west. A lot of activity to monitor, hoping that none of it comes our way!

NYC Weekend Weather + Note on Harvey – Aug 25, 2017

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I’ve returned from Europe (missed the eclipse though!) to a very pleasant stretch of calm weather and slightly below normal temperatures. Surface high pressure to our northwest over Ontario will continue to bring us cool, dry Canadian air that evokes a more fall-like feel.

Rest of today – just about normal temperatures with highs around 80°F, skies have cleared up nicely and we should have spectacular weather for the start of the weekend.

Saturday – high pressure remains in control, and gives us another pristine day of slightly below normal temperatures in the upper-70s but lots of sun.

Sunday – basically a clone of Saturday, high temperatures in the upper-70s, lots of sun.

Monday – more of the same with temperatures again in the upper-70s, maybe a few more clouds, but who can complain especially when you consider the next section.

 

Hurricane Harvey a Major Threat to the Texas Coast

It’s worth mentioning here that we have a very dangerous situation developing on the Texas coast today and over the course of the next few days with Hurricane Harvey. If you have friends or family in this area, it’s not a bad idea just to try and check in with them.

GOES 16 visible satellite image of Harvey showing impressive size, distinctive eye, decent symmetrical outflow except on the side already beginning to interact with land.

Harvey originally formed over the eastern Caribbean, dissipated approaching the Yucatan, and then redeveloped as it emerged over the Bay of Campeche. Favorable conditions have allowed Harvey to strengthen quickly into a Category 2 storm, and it’s forecast to continue strengthening to Category 3 before landfall.

This would make it the first major hurricane to make landfall on the US mainland in nearly 12 years. The biggest concern with Harvey is that most forecast models have the storm stalling out after landfall, and possibly looping back out to the Gulf and making a second landfall mid-week next week in eastern Texas, still retaining tropical storm strength. Two areas of upper-level high pressure will essentially be trapping Harvey in place.

The slowing forward motion of the storm means that tropical storm and hurricane force winds will rage for many hours. The longer the winds churn up the waters of the gulf, the bigger the life-threatening storm surge along the coast. Peak storm surge of 6-12′ is forecast. That’s without waves on top. For reference, Sandy brought a peak storm surge of 14′ to The Battery. That’s well above the first, and well into the second story of most homes. On top of that, rainfall totals measuring 2-3′ are possible, which would cause widespread inland flooding.