Tag Archives: independence day

NYC Independence Day Weather – Jul 3, 2015

Pleasant weather today will give way to more unsettled weather for Independence Day. Showers are likely during the day Saturday, however, it appears that rain should move out before the fireworks start. Sunday sees a return to sunny weather, with the beginning of next week starting off dry.

Rest of today – sunny skies should yield comfortable high temperatures in the low-mid 80s.

Saturday (Independence Day) – an area of low pressure is forecast to pass to the south of Long Island Saturday. Rain showers are possible during the day along a nearly stationary frontal along this low pressure center. With the low pressure to our south, we will be experiencing southeasterly, easterly, then northeasterly winds associated with the counterclockwise rotation around the low. These winds and mostly cloudy skies will serve to suppress high temperatures to well below normal in the mid-70s range.

Now, the all-important question: will it rain during the fireworks displays? As of now, it appears that the bulk of any rain is expected to have moved offshore or east of the area by 8PM Saturday, which should allow for dry conditions during fireworks displays.

 

North American Model high resolution simulated radar for 8PM EDT Saturday
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for 8PM EDT Saturday

Sunday – conditions improve rapidly during the overnight hours Saturday into Sunday. Sunday will feature sunny skies, and highs in the low-80s.

Monday – an increase in cloud cover will herald the next week, with high temperatures remaining in the low-80s.

 

Drought Update

Drought conditions continue to abate in the region with multiple rounds of significant precipitation events. However, moderate drought persists in Eastern Long Island, as depicted in the beige shaded areas below.

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NYC Weather – Independence Day – Jun 30, 2014

Lots to talk about on the last day of June, which brings with it the opening of a warm trend and possible mini heat wave. A stubborn low pressure system over the Plains States is pushing warm and humid air from the Gulf ahead of a leading cold front. As a result, Tuesday will feature warm, muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s, maybe even touching 90.

Wednesday, that frontal boundary comes closer, and with the heat and humidity in place, we’ll have the right conditions for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms later in the day. However, coverage is expected to be widely scattered. Highs again will be in the upper 80s, possibly hitting 90.

Thursday -as the cold front makes its approach in earnest, a pre-frontal trough is forecast to develop, and this should help spark off more widespread showers and thunderstorms than on Wednesday. Expect high temperatures to be somewhat lower due to cloudy skies, but still warm and humid in the mid to upper 80s.

Friday (Independence Day) – A lot of weather forecasters were saying earlier this weekend that July 4th was going to be a nice day with no rain. Sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case now, as the timing of that pesky cold front has slowed down somewhat. This does mean you could see rain and or thunderstorms during the day Friday and into Friday night, but at least the heat will break somewhat with temperatures only around 80.

Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.
Cold front right on top of us Friday could rain on your July 4th plans.

First Named Tropical System of the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Over the weekend, a disturbance off the east coast of Florida began to show signs of increasing organization, to the point that the National Hurricane Center now gives the system an 80% chance of forming into a tropical depression in the next 2 days. If it does, then it will become the first named tropical system of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida
High resolution satellite image of the incipient tropical system off the east coast of Florida

Why does this matter to us? Well, as it currently stands, it appears this tropical system/possible storm may impact our weekend weather here in the Northeast. Some forecast models have this storm moving to the near offshore waters of the Northeast by Saturday (indicated in pink circle below). This could bring the potential for rain to parts of the Northeast, in particular, New England. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as though this storm will strengthen much (below you see the lowest pressure at the center of 1012mb, for reference, normal pressure at sea level is 1013mb), and in fact, it will likely make a transition to becoming an extratropical cyclone/storm rather quickly after it moves north of Florida. Still, it’s a bit too early to tell just where this storm will go, so it bears monitoring.

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Possible storm tracks as illustrated by GFS ensemble members
Possible storm tracks as illustrated by several different forecast models