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NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – Sept 4, 2020

You couldn’t wish for better weather this Labor Day Weekend! A dry cold front will pass through today, and high pressure will build in behind it, remaining in control of our sensible weather throughout the remainder of the long weekend. The result will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low-80s and comfortable humidity, ideal for basically any outdoor plans you have.

Rest of today – the warmest day of this period with high temperatures in the mid-80s and sunny skies prior to the arrival of a cold front. This frontal passage will be moisture starved, so we’re not anticipating any rain with it. There may be some more clouds later on in the day as a result, though. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8PM Saturday. A dry cold front is anticipated to move through later today and through Saturday. This will clear the way for a weekend of remarkably good weather.

Saturday – with the cold front past us, we’ll see cooler temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s with mostly clear skies again.

Sunday – yet another gorgeous day with high temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with mostly clear skies.

GFS model of surface pressure and 10 meter above ground level winds. High pressure is forecast to remain over our region through the weekend.

Monday (Labor Day) – high temperatures around 80ºF again with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-60s under clear skies.

NYC Weather Update – Post-Tropical Storm Hermine – Sep 4, 2016

Although tropical storm warnings are still up for the five boroughs, coastal Connecticut, Long Island, and New Jersey, it appears at this time that the threat from Hermine is diminishing. The center of Hermine is now located well out into the Atlantic Ocean, and even if it does make its eventual turn to the north and northwest, it will be far enough east of us that most impacts should be on the moderate side.

Rest of today – over the last few days, Hermine has continuously trended east of the official National Hurricane Center forecast track, and has still not made a turn to the north or northwest. It is still forecast to make that turn today, bringing it closer to shore, and increasing clouds in the area. Winds should pick up as well, with high temperatures around 80ºF.

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Post-tropical cyclone Hermine this afternoon

Labor Day (Monday) – assuming that Hermine does make its projected turn towards the coast, Monday would entail a chance for rain, as well as strong winds, possibly approaching tropical storm force. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the upper-70s in this scenario. Could be a tough day for the Caribbean Day Parade.

Personally, I do not believe Hermine will produce tropical storm conditions (sustained wind greater than 39mph, less than 74mph). during this time, the confidence in this track forecast has been low, and any turn towards the coast has yet to verify. That said, nothing about this complex storm would be surprising, and a shift in storm track 50-60 miles west could dramatically increase the likelihood of the city receiving tropical storm conditions. Primary impacts will still be moderate to major coastal flooding with multiple tide cycles of storm surge and large waves leading to serious beach erosion in some places.

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Based on latest track forecasts and current position of Hermine, NYC rests in a zone of 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, with the probability increasing sharply further east.

Tuesday – could end up being a pretty decent day if Hermine is further off to the east at this point. If that happens, we’ll probably see decreasing clouds and improving conditions with high temperatures in the mid-upper 80s. If Hermine sticks around, then we could see another day of wind and rain.

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Will be posting another update tomorrow.

 

 

NYC Labor Day Weekend Weather – Sept 3, 2015

The holiday weekend opens up with a break in the heat, but the relief doesn’t last long before the heat gets turned back on in time for Labor Day itself. We get a chance for a few scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail over the medium to long term.

Rest of today – hot and humid with highs in the low-90s under hazy and cloudy skies.

Friday – a cold front forecast to pass through the area from the north tonight could touch off only a few scattered thunderstorms, since conditions are unfavorable for widespread coverage. The day starts off overcast but as cooler, relatively drier air moves in behind the cold front, skies should begin to clear from east to west. High temperatures will be significantly cooler in the low-80s.

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Saturday – the break in the heat gives us probably the best day of the weekend with comfortable high temperatures in the low-80s and lower humidity along with plenty of sun. This is due to high pressure building over the area.

Sunday – as the high pressure moves offshore and southeast, it allows a warmer, more humid tropical airmass back into the region, heralding a return to very similar weather conditions as what we’ve experienced this week. Highs will climb back up into the upper-80s under sunny skies.

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Labor Day (Monday) – the heat and humidity persists, giving the Caribbean Day Parade an appropriately tropical feel. Temperatures should again reach into the upper-80s with mostly sunny skies.