Tag Archives: memorial day

NYC Memorial Day Weekend Weather – May 21, 2015

NYC, Rain, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

We’ve had a cloudier, cooler middle stretch of the week than expected, however, the payoff will be a splendid Memorial Day weekend. All three days of the long weekend look to be suitable for outdoor activity, with Sunday probably being the best day with warm highs in the mid-70s. There could be a chance of thunderstorms late Monday, and this will bear monitoring.

Rest of today – mostly cloudy today due to the influence of a low pressure system to the south, which will be moving out over the Atlantic today. There could be a few showers associated with this coastal low, but these would be primarily confined to NYC and Long Island. Otherwise, northeast winds associated with the low along with clouds overhead will act to suppress high temperatures in the low-60s.gfs_namer_024_1000_850_thick

 

Friday – showers are possible overnight from today into Friday morning, then clouds should clear in the morning, although they may reappear for later in the afternoon. Still, it will be a considerably sunnier and warmer day with high temperatures in the mid-70s.

Saturday – high pressure builds to our west giving us sunny skies, with the tradeoff being cooler temperatures and winds coming in from the north and northwest. Highs should top out in the mid-60s.

gfs_namer_048_1000_850_thick

 

Sunday – once the high above shifts to the east, clockwise flow around it will turn to the south and southwest, meaning we will get much warmer air coming into the region. High temperatures should be able to climb into the mid-upper 70s, especially if cloud cover is minimized.

gfs_namer_087_1000_850_thick

 

Memorial Day Monday – it looks as though a warm front will be trying to push its way through the area on Monday, so there may be some chance of thunderstorms or showers along this frontal boundary, but it’s not easy to pinpoint how wide the coverage of these would be, or what the duration is at this point. Outside of this chance for some precipitation, the rest of Monday should be pleasant with highs again in the mid-70s, albeit with more cloud cover than Sunday.

NYC Weather Update – Meteor Shower Visibility – May 22, 2014

NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Today was an active weather day for the NYC area, particularly over New Jersey and upstate. A funnel cloud was spotted up in the Albany area, and a few severe thunderstorms exhibiting strong rotation (the strongest thunderstorms-supercells-often feature a single internal circulation called a mesocyclone)  formed ahead of a cold front that’s still slowly pushing its way over western New Jersey. Some of these storms produced large hail over interior parts of the NYC metro area.

Friday there will continue to be a risk for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, otherwise it should be a mostly cloudy day with his right around 70.

In Oberlin, tomorrow should see skies gradually clearing with his in the mid-upper 60s.

GFS model output for 5PM EDT Friday, May 23, 2014
NAM model simulated radar image for 5PM EDT Friday, May 23, 2014
Saturday still cannot rule out a lingering risk of thunderstorms and showers in the PM hours on Saturday as shortwaves (impulses of energy) continue to spin around the backside of the departing low pressure system that’s brought us this period of unsettled weather. Highs will again be around 70, depending on if breaks in clouds develop.
By Saturday, skies should clear out over Oberlin, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 70s.
GFS model output for 2PM EDT Saturday, May 24, 2014
NAM model simulated radar image for 2PM EDT Saturday, May 24, 2014

Sunday and Monday are still on track to be the best days of the Memorial Day weekend with temperatures in the upper 70s Sunday and low 80s Monday.

Camelopardalis Meteor Shower Visibility

Now about that meteor shower, will you be able to see it in NYC? Sadly, the answer is probably not, due to a forecast that calls for mostly cloudy skies. With cloudy conditions, light pollution is amplified as the light cast off from the city gets reflected back down even more. It will be a different story for Oberlin, though, where skies are forecast to clear due to the influence of building high pressure well before the anticipated peak of the meteor showers.

NWS hour by hour graphical forecasts. Red boxes indicate the forecast peak for the new Comet 209P/LINEAR Camelopardalis meteor shower.
NWS hour by hour graphical forecasts. Red boxes indicate the forecast peak for the new Comet 209P/LINEAR Camelopardalis meteor shower. The blue line represents the percentage of the sky that’s forecast to be covered with clouds. 

NYC Weather Update | First Look @ Memorial Day Weekend – May 19, 2014

NYC, Outside of NYC, Rain, Storms, Thunderstorms, Weather Update, Weekend, , , , , , , , ,

All preliminary indications are that this Memorial Day weekend should see fairly good weather, as you can read in the detailed discussion below. First, for your work week forecast:

For the remainder of the day today, there is a slight chance of a pop up shower or thunderstorm as cumulus clouds continue to build. This risk will cease as the sun begins to go down, and cuts off the heat source for these clouds. Overnight lows will fall into the low 50s in the city (not as cold as last night, as some clouds are expected to stick around early and stunt the potential for good radiational cooling), with 40s in the interior.

Tuesday will be the best day of the week, with high pressure briefly building in from the west. This will lead to mostly clear skies and warm temperatures in the upper 70s (also partially due to an incoming warm front).

Beginning Wednesday, we will see a period of unsettled weather as a relatively slow moving storm system approaches. This system will develop over the Great Lakes, and a warm front is forecast to be approaching our area during the day Wednesday. There will be an increasing chance of showers throughout the day as the warm front nears, with the best chance for precipitation in the late evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will be slightly lower than Tuesday in the mid-70s.

HPC's Day 3 forecast for the US
HPC’s Day 3 forecast for the US

Thursday there is a bit of uncertainty regarding the eastward progression of the warm front mentioned above. If the warm front has already passed over us, then we’ll be in the warm sector between the warm front and approaching cold front. This would lead to favorable conditions for some thunderstorms. Otherwise, we would expect mostly cloudy skies and a chance for more showery precipitation. High temperatures will be similar to Wednesday.

Friday, with the cold front Thursday having moved through and high pressure slowly building in, we would expect a good day weather-wise. However, as you see in the following image, the center of the now occluded low pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary off the coast of New England. This is due to a blocking high over the North Atlantic (not pictured). Therefore, a chance of showers is forecast for both Friday and Saturday, with skies gradually clearing from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny Saturday. High temperatures Friday is forecast to be in the low 70s.

Screen Shot 2014-05-19 at 1.52.00 PM

Now, the all important initial weekend forecast: as depicted above, high pressure building over the Great Lakes should progress generally southeast towards the Carolinas during the weekend. This should translate into improving weather each day during the weekend and increasing temperatures. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday should see high temperatures climbing from the low to mid 70s, and skies clearing to become mostly sunny.

For those of you reading this forecast who are traveling towards Oberlin and points west, the forecast for those parts is actually even better than for New York City in terms of sunshine, although, as you know temperatures will be slightly cooler in Ohio than here.