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NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 10, 2017

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Get ready for record-breaking cold and a blast of deep winter tonight. The cold spell slowly abates over the course of the weekend, but even by Monday, high temperatures are still anticipated to be below normal for this time of year. There is a chance for precipitation on Sunday night with the passage of a weak disturbance.

Rest of today – we’ve already reached today’s daytime high of about 40°F and temperatures will be falling throughout the rest of the day. An arctic front is passing over us now, in its wake, strong cold advection (transport) is ongoing as a continental polar airmass from northern Canada dives down into the area. A high pressure center over Minnesota is also creating a fairly strong pressure gradient with a low pressure system in central Quebec. This will result in breezy conditions with winds from the northwest at around 25 mph and gusts over 40 mph. Wind chill values will fall from the 30s into the 20s.

Strong cold advection is ongoing behind the arctic front. Temperatures are dropping by as much as 2.5-3°F per hour in the Northeast.

Saturday (Veterans Day) – overnight lows going into Saturday are forecast to plummet to record-breaking levels in the low-20s. The high pressure pictured above will be moving closer to us, decreasing the pressure gradient and reducing the winds here. Temperatures should top out around 40°F with lots of sun. It will be a chilly, but sunny day for the Veterans Day Parade.

Sunday – temperatures continue to warm into the upper-40 with increasing clouds.

Monday – some uncertainty exists about the possibility of precipitation overnight into Monday. High temperatures will finally be approaching normal for this time of year with highs in the low-50s and mostly cloudy skies.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 3, 2017

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This weekend’s weather will be a tale of contrasting temperatures and airmasses. The week ends with warm temperatures more than 10°F above normal. A cold front sweeps through and fall returns for the weekend itself, but another warm up takes place leading into Monday. Also, Daylight Saving Time ends at 2AM Sunday.

Rest of today – increasing clouds for the day. Warm with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Yesterday, a warm front pushed through, putting us in the warm sector associated with a low pressure now over northeastern Quebec.

Saturday – quite a different feel tomorrow once this cold front below moves through the area. Winds will become onshore from the east, bring much cooler air. High temperatures are expected to top out only in the upper-50s with sunny skies (around normal for this time of year).

Sunday – there’s a chance of showers overnight Saturday into Sunday associated with the next storm system to impact the area. An advancing warm front is expected to bring light, stratiform rain ahead of it. Temperatures will be warmer, in the mid-60s with mostly cloudy skies.

Monday – the familiar pattern of warm front followed by cold front continues Monday. We’ll again be in the warm sector with temperatures peaking at about 70°F. Rain should accompany the passage of this cold front.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 13, 2017

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This weekend brings a mixed bag of weather, with some chances for rain, but warm temperatures as well. A stark contrast in temperatures marks the beginning of next week with some of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen up to this point in the season.

Rest of today – partly sunny to mostly cloudy with seasonable highs in the mid-60s

Saturday – an inverted trough attached to a low pressure center well south of us rotates into the area and looks to remain stationary during the day. This could bring some scattered showers, however, this trough isn’t particularly strong and a washout isn’t anticipated. In fact, some sun could break through later in the day which could send temperatures higher than the forecast range in the mid-70s.

 

Sunday – temperatures continue pushing well above normal into the upper-70s and near 80°F. Warm air will be flowing in advance of a cold front that will drape across the country.

Monday – that cold front brings a chance of rain overnight into Monday and also ushers in much cooler air. High temperatures drop back into the low-60s. Overnight into Tuesday we might be seeing low temperatures in the upper-40s!

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 4, 2017

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A hot week transitions into a weekend that will see the end of the heat and humidity for at least half of next week and maybe longer. Rain and thunderstorms dot the forecast except appropriately Sunday.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. The rain and thunderstorms this morning give way to a dry day otherwise.

Saturday – a warm front moves through overnight into the morning with a cold front following right on its heels. This will bring a period thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. Marginally favorable atmospheric conditions could spawn a few strong storms. Clouds clear up in the afternoon and highs are expected to reach normal levels in the mid-80s.

Sunday – cooler, drier air moves in behind the cold front Saturday. High pressure builds to the south and west and moves south sending cooler Canadian air around its periphery towards us. High temperatures will be comfortable around 80°F with lots of sun.

Monday – a weak disturbance brings rain and cooler temperatures, well below average only in the mid-upper 70s.

Trouble in the Tropics?

A vigorous tropical wave has spun up off the west African coast and Cabo Verde. Storms originating from this region have historically been some of the most powerful and damaging, but that’s if they can sustain the transit across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has this wave at a 50% of forming into a tropical depression or storm in 2 days, and 80% chance in 5 days. It’s worrying that it’s starting to get picked up on long-term GFS model runs taking a swipe at the US East Coast as a strong tropical cyclone, however, this far out, it’s difficult to say which one of many scenarios could play out. It does bear monitoring though.

GFS for Wednesday 8/16, with the tropical system in the picture right off the East Coast of the US.

NYC Weekend Weather – Jun 9, 2017

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Got retrained as a SKYWARN spotter last night – this weekend should be tranquil though. A steady warming trend begins this weekend and lasts through mid-week next week. After a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather, we could see the second heatwave of the season. Great weekend for a getaway to the beach!

Rest of today – mostly sunny, temperatures in the upper-70s to around 80º. Some residual instability in the wake of a low pressure center exiting the Northeast may touch off a couple isolated showers or thunderstorms.

Saturday – the warmup continues with temperatures climbing into the low-80s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon hours with the passage of an upper level disturbance.

Sunday – the heat arrives in earnest as a Bermuda high sets up and begins to strengthen. This will begin pumping in warmer and more humid air from the south and southwest. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low-90s in the city with sunny skies, with cooler temperatures due to the sea breeze on south-facing shores in the mid-80s. Great beach day, and ideal conditions for the annual Puerto Rican Day Parade.

Monday – the heat continues with temperatures again in the low-90s with some spots in the mid-90s and sunny skies. There could be a heat advisory up at some point.

NYC Weekend Weather – May 12, 2017

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Another rainy weekend on tap for the Tri-State area as a Nor’easter takes aim at the Mid-Atlantic and New England just in time to put a damper on Mother’s Day plans. Luckily for us, rain on actual Mother’s Day should be limited to the morning hours. Next week, we’re looking forward to a big warm up in temperatures.

Rest of today – partly sunny with high temperatures topping out in the low-60s.

Saturday – a Nor’easter moves in on the area overnight into Saturday. Expect raw, windy, rainy conditions for the duration of the day. There could be periods of moderate to heavy rain along with east/east-northeast winds in the 15mph with stronger gusts. High temperatures with the onshore flow, clouds, and rain only expected to reach the low-50s.

Sunday (Mother’s Day) – rains clear up earlier in the day, but we’re still left with a windy and cloudy day. The tradeoff is warmer temperatures in the mid-60s.

Monday – partly sunny skies with improving conditions and high temperatures in the mid-60s.

 

Warmup Ahead

Starting Tuesday, temperatures begin to warm up significantly with a shift in our weather pattern. A summer-like Bermuda high sets up and pumps in warm air from the south into the area, resulting in temperatures above to well-above normal (some 80s possible late week).

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Apr 7, 2017

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After a week of alternating days of wet and windy weather, we look ahead to improving conditions over the weekend and leading into next week. Sunny days with temperatures averaging anywhere between 5-10ºF above normal are right around the corner.

Rest of today – one of the last days of cooler than average weather we’ll see for a while. Temperatures hover in the low-50s with mostly cloudy skies. There is a chance for a passing shower with instability and moisture in the atmosphere from the backside of yesterday’s storm exiting east.

Saturday – skies clear, though temperatures remain below normal with high temperatures in the low-50s.

Sunday – a warm up begins as high pressure builds to the south of us. Clockwise flow around this high pressure brings warmer air in from the southwest. Temperatures warm into the mid-60s with sunny skies.

Monday – superb conditions for the Yankee’s home opener with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper-60s to about 70ºF and sunny skies.

 

 

Drought Busted

The many rounds of rain we’ve seen over the course of the last couple weeks have finally busted the remaining drought conditions in the city itself and Long Island, just in time for the start of the growing season. Moderate drought still persists further north in the Hudson Valley.

NYC Weekend Weather – Nov 18, 2016

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An extended period of well above normal temperatures comes to an abrupt end this weekend as a strong cold front pushes through overnight Saturday into Sunday. On the back side of this frontal boundary, temperatures will average around 15ºF lower than we’ve seen this week. If you like it mild, go out and enjoy this weather before Saturday!

Rest of today – sunny and mild with high temperatures in the low-60s.

Saturday – another mild day on tap with lots of sun and a high around 60ºF. Chances for rain increase into the overnight hours, at this point peaking around midnight. Winds will pick up first from the southeast ahead of the cold front, then to the west. Sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts over 30mph are possible.
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Sunday – rain chances taper off but winds remain in the 20-30mph with strong gusts up to 40mph. High temperatures will be significantly colder than we’ve gotten used to and below normal in the mid-40s. A tight pressure gradient sets up between the departing low and a high pressure center to the southwest, blasting us with cold Canadian air as a result.

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Monday – clouds diminishing gradually, winds still pretty breezy, and a high only in the low-40s.

 

NYC Weekend Weather – Jul 28, 2016

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We finally get a break from the heat along with some much needed rain in the next few days. Saturday looks to be the best day of the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will range anywhere between 15-20ºF cooler than last weekend. 

Overnight – lows in the mid-70s as a low pressure center passes almost directly over NYC. Because the low will be right over us, the main area of the heaviest rain will remain north of the city.

Friday – showers punctuated by periods of steady, heavier rain as bands of rain develop and wrap around the low pressure center as it tracks east. High temperatures in the low-80s with overcast skies. This low pressure system will thrive off the humid, tropical airmass in place over the region. A flash flood watch has been issued to reflect the possibility of some areas receiving 1-2″/hour rains. Embedded thunderstorms are possible, but are unlikely to reach severe limits. The bulk of the rain will fall overnight into the morning hours, and should begin tapering off in the afternoon from west to east. 

Screen Shot 2016-07-28 at 6.53.30 PM fill_94qwbgSaturday – high pressure passes briefly giving us a mostly dry day with partly sunny skies with highs in the mid-80s.

Sunday – another disturbance pushes through from the south providing more chances for rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-80s otherwise.

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Monday – skies gradually clear and temperatures warm back into the low-mid 80s.

Tuesday – warm and sunny with highs again in the mid-80s

Drought Conditions Forecast to Persist

Despite the rains this weekend, many parts of the area remain under a moderate drought, having received only about 25% of normal precipitation for this past month. The outlook for the season calls for persistence of drought conditions as below normal to normal precipitation will be insufficient to break the drought.

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NYC Weekend Weather – Feb 26, 2016

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The main weather story this weekend will be a rather dramatic swing in temperatures. We start the weekend off with below normal temperatures and highs only in the upper-30s. By Monday, temperatures are forecast to reach into the mid-50s. The best day of the weekend will be Sunday with ample sunshine and mild highs in the low-50s.

Rest of today – sunny, with a cool northwest wind in the 20-25mph range, which will make it feel like the upper-20s with an actual high temperature in the upper-30s.

Saturday – winds abate and but temperatures remain cool in the upper-30s despite plenty of sunshine.

Sunday – a world of difference with temperatures topping out in the low-mid 50s.

High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest
High pressure to the south with a frontal boundary to the west leads to warmer air flowing from the southwest

Monday – continuing a mild trend with temperatures in the mid-50s and mostly sunny skies.