Tag Archives: rain

NYC Weather Update – Nov 9, 2020

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The week starts with possible record breaking warmth carrying over from the weekend. Record high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s were set at several locations in the region yesterday. More records could fall today with highs in the mid-70s again. A general cooling trend takes place this week with highs eventually dropping back to seasonable levels in the upper-50s. A cold front mid-week with good moisture will bring a drenching rain Wednesday into Thursday.

Rest of today – very warm with possibly record breaking temperatures in the mid-70s once again under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with patchy fog possible.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 7AM Tuesday

Tuesday – temperatures cool off a bit but still quite warm in the upper-60s to near 70ºF with more clouds. Overnight lows quite mild in the low-60s.

Wednesday (Veteran’s Day) – increasing clouds but still warm with high temperatures approaching 70ºF. A vigorous cold front will be moving in from the west. Rain chances increase through the afternoon. Most of the rain should occur overnight with good moisture content accompanying this front. Overnight lows in only dropping into the mid-60s with warm, southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage.

GFS model 850 mb relative humidity and winds at 1AM Thursday, depicting some decently fast winds and ample moisture accompanying the cold front.

Thursday – high temperatures occur early in the day prior to the passage of the cold front. Rain should subside as soon as the front passes. Behind the front, winds turn to the west and bring in a cooler, drier air mass. Temperatures should drop through the day with overnight lows bottoming out around 50ºF.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 16, 2020

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A slow-moving cold front will bring rain to start the weekend from today into Saturday morning as several waves of low pressure move along this frontal boundary. Much colder air sweeps in behind this cold front with highs around 60ºF Saturday as high pressure builds with skies clearing. Overnight lows in outlying suburbs may be close to freezing, with frost developing. High pressure remains in place into early next week, maintaining dry weather. With the position of the high moving to the northeast, some warmer southerly return flow should help temperatures rebound into the mid-60s.

Rest of today – cloudy, with periods of rain, moderate at times. High temperatures peaking early in the day in the low-60s, dropping through the day. Overnight lows cooling off into the mid-40s as rain continues until perhaps 1-2am.

GOES geocolor visible satellite imagery of the Northeast this morning. Extensive cloudiness and some vertical development is apparent along a cold front that will impact the region Friday into Saturday.

Saturday – rain ending early. Gradual clearing with high temperatures cooler, around 60ºF. Overnight lows again on the cool side, in the mid-40s under mostly clear skies.

Sunday – high temperatures rebound a little into the mid-60s under mostly sunny skies with warmer southerly return flow developing as high pressure moves to the northeast. Overnight lows likewise warming into the mid-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Sunday, showing high pressure anchored over the Northeast.

Monday – partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid to upper-60s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 13, 2020

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Rainy, cloudy conditions early today start giving way to high pressure as the low pressure offshore, remnant moisture from remnants of Delta, continues moving off to the east. High pressure takes hold mid-week with above-normal temperatures rising into the low-70s. Additional rain chances come towards the end of the week with another cold front forecast to pass Friday, leading to cooler low-60s over the weekend.

Rest of today – rain ending this morning with clouds sticking around and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Clouds diminish towards the overnight hours. Overnight lows in the low-50s with skies clearing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – high pressure in place with warmer temperatures around 70ºF under sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Thursday – similar day to Wednesday, high temperatures a touch warmer in the low-70s, with sunny skies. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with increasing clouds.

GFS model 2-meter above ground temperature anomalies for 8AM Friday

Friday – rain moves in especially later in the day and overnight. High temperatures still quite mild in the upper-60s with warm southerly flow ahead of the frontal passage. Overnight lows cool to around 50ºF following the frontal passage bringing rain.

NYC Weather Update – Oct 6, 2020

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This week, we see slightly above normal temperatures in the low-70s to start off, dropping to below normal temperatures in low-60s later in the week following the passage of a cold front mid-week. Overall sunny conditions punctuated by this frontal boundary tomorrow. Gusty winds and a stray thunderstorm could accompany this front as its parent low deepens over the Canadian Maritimes.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high pressure exiting to our south, yielding light southwesterly flow and high temperatures in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the upper-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Wednesday

Wednesday – slightly warmer with warm southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front, highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s behind this front, which could bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area. Gusty winds could also accompany this front due to the large pressure gradient between us and its parent low moving over the Canadian Maritimes.

GFS model surface pressure and 10 meter above ground winds for Wednesday at 8PM

Thursday – Canadian high pressure sweeps in behind the cold front bringing sunny skies and cooler temperatures in mid-60s. Overnight lows much cooler, in the upper-40s due to this change in air masses.

Friday – with a cold start, high temperatures will likely top out in the mid-60s again under sunny skies. Overnight lows warm up into the low-50s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Oct 2, 2020

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We have a gray start to the weekend as a cold front that brought rain this morning exits to our east. Behind this frontal passage, conditions should clear this afternoon as high pressure builds. This high pressure will remain in control of our weather for the rest of the weekend. The cooler air mass accompanying this high pressure will result in below normal temps in the mid-60s. There’s some chance for rain again Sunday night as a coastal storm tracks offshore. Cool temperatures in the 60s continue next week.

Rest of today – cool, with clouds slowly breaking up, and a high temperature in the mid-60s. Overnight lows cooling off into the low-50s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. High pressure is forecast to take a commanding position over our region, yielding pleasant, though cool weather.

Saturday – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. Overnight lows in the low-50s with mostly clear skies.

Sunday – high temperatures again in the mid-60s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s. An offshore low may pass close enough to give us some light rain going into Monday morning.

GFS model 850 mb temperature anomalies for 2PM Sunday, showing 4ºC cooler than normal temperatures for our area at this height.

Monday – cloudy, with chances for rain from this passing coastal storm. Highs in the low-60s with the clouds in place. Overnight lows in the low-50s.

NYC Weather Update – Sept 29, 2020

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Apologies for the lack of updates lately. Have had a few things going on keeping me busy. We have a wet beginning to October on the way with tropical moisture accompanying a slow moving cold front. Heavy rain is possible overnight Tuesday, with isolated flash flooding a concern. Temperatures should be around normal (low-70s) until this weekend when a reinforcing cold front brings us down into the mid-60s.

Rest of today – cloudy with chances for rain increasing later in the day as a cold front approaches from the west. High temperatures in the mid-70s. This latter frontal boundary may also spark some showers overnight, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s. A strong low level jet will be in place overnight, enabling efficient transport of tropical moisture from the south. This will lead to the potential for rounds of moderate to heavy rain, where some training is possible as well. Flash flooding is a concern as places could see 1-2″ of total rainfall overnight. Winds could also be gusty in some of the heavier downpours, which could also produce some thunder. Temperatures generally in the mid-60s.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Wednesday
  • GFS model output for precipitable water valid 2AM Wednesday, showing the potential for heavy rain.

Wednesday – conditions should improve during the day with showers diminishing in the morning. Mostly cloudy with highs in the low-70s. Subsidence (sinking air) with westerly winds could produce gusty winds. Overnight lows in the upper-50s with mostly clear skies.

Thursday – partly sunny with highs in the low-70s. Overnight lows in the mid-50s.

Friday – partly sunny with highs in the mid-60s. Chance for rain with another cold front forecast to move through. Overnight lows in the low-50s as temperatures start to cool off behind this frontal passage.

Looking ahead, behind this cold front, a period of below normal temperatures is forecast to hit much of the Eastern US next week.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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This week we will see a possibility of an extended period of cloudy weather, punctuated by periodic storms. This regime will bring cooler than normal temperatures mostly in the low-80s. Good news: Labor Day weekend looks to be dry and cool so far! Looking to the tropics, we’re about to enter the peak of hurricane season, and it’s no surprise in this very active season to date to see that National Hurricane Center is monitoring four disturbances that could become tropical storms.

Rest of today – cool, generally cloudy with possible peaks of sun, high temperatures in the upper-70s. Temperatures will be cool due to a persistent onshore flow with an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and a slow-moving warm front/stationary front to our south. This latter frontal boundary may also spark some showers overnight, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Tuesday

Tuesday – the cool, cloudy trend continues with high temperatures again topping out in the upper-70s. Showers may occur periodically during the day. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with chances of showers continuing.

Wednesday – the cloudy, rainy weather continues, though temperatures may be a touch warmer around 80ºF. Chance for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows in the low-70s as the warm front finally pushes through.

Thursday – cloudy, with a chance for showers, and warmer temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the mid-70s. Shower chances persist overnight.

Watching the tropics

Keeping eyes on the tropics, given that we’re about to enter the peak of the season (September) when oceanic heat content tends to be the highest, providing the greatest potential fuel for storms. There are four disturbances in the Atlantic that could become tropical systems, however, none of them are an immediate threat to the US mainland.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 28, 2020

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Moisture associated with the remnants of Laura are set to bring soaking rain starting the weekend. A cold front eventually clears things out by Sunday, which will bring a markedly drier air mass into the region. Temperatures during this period will be generally cooler than at most points this week, in the low-80s. Next week, we could see a return to hotter weather towards mid-week.

Rest of today – increasing clouds with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Chances for rain and thunderstorms later in the day along a warm front that’s forecast to lift through during the day. Overnight lows in the low-70s with rain chances continuing.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. By this time, a warm front will have lifted through and the remnants of Laura will be contributing moisture to rains over the region.

Saturday – Laura, which wrought serious devastation over the Gulf Coast, will make itself felt on Saturday, contributing tropical moisture to rain that will impact the area. This moisture will contribute to very high precipitable water content > 2″, which could lead to localized flooding. Mostly cloudy with rain possible throughout the day. Stronger storms are possible in the afternoon. High temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with rain chances diminishing as a cold front sweeps through.

  • GFS model precipitable water content valid 8AM Saturday. Very moist values of > 2.00″ are possible.
  • Weather Prediction Center’s analysis of possible rainfall totals Saturday. Parts of the region could see easily see 0.75-1.00″.

Sunday – by the morning, the trailing cold front associated with the primary low bringing this rain should’ve already pushed through. This will lead to a much drier, cooler day, with high temperatures peaking around 80ºF and plenty of sun. Winds may be gusty at times from the northwest. Overnight lows in the low-60s due to good radiational cooling with clear skies and winds calming.

Monday – even cooler than Sunday with high temperatures in the upper-70s, and sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

NYC Weekend Weather – Aug 21, 2020

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A week of refreshing, mostly dry, and seasonable weather gives way to a warming trend this weekend. There will be chances of isolated, diurnally driven thunderstorms both weekend days. By the end of the period, temperatures will be climbing into the upper-80s and low-90s across the region, and the warmer temps look set to carry over into the first half of next week.

Rest of today – mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-80s. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 8AM Saturday. The warm front and weak surface low pictured over the Delmarva is forecast to move north during the day.

Saturday – a weak warm front pushes north during the day. As a result, low clouds should be on the increase. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, coverage is likely to not be widespread. Overnight lows in the mid-70s with rain chances continuing.

Sunday – warm and more humid with high temperatures in the upper-80s. Another day where there will be chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

Monday – the warm temperatures continue with high temperatures again in the upper-80s, approaching 90ºF under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the low-70s.

GFS 850 mb temperature anomalies valid at 2PM Monday. The deeper the red hues, the more warmer the anomaly. This shows us on the northern side of an 850 mb high, with slightly above normal temperatures at this level as a result. 850 mb temperatures are often a good proxy for surface temperatures.

NYC Weather Update – Aug 17, 2020

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After a rainy, cool weekend, temperatures will rebound into the low-80s as high pressure takes over. This will bring about a week of pleasant, mostly dry weather, with plenty of sun all the way through end of the week. Further afield, we’re watching the tropics for 2 possible tropical storms brewing.

Rest of today – sunny with high temperatures in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s with some potential for a scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through the region later this evening. Timing of these storms hitting the area appears to be around 8-10PM.

  • Weather Prediction Center surface forecast for 2AM Tuesday
  • High resolution rapid refresh simulated radar valid at 9:30PM tonight

Tuesday – behind this cold front, westerly downsloping winds will actually help temperatures rebound into the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows in the mid-60s.

Wednesday – mostly sunny with highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows continue in the upper-60s.

Thursday – another great day with lots of sun and highs in the low-80s. Overnight lows in the upper-60s.

Watching the tropics

Way out in the tropical Atlantic, we have two tropical waves that the National Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on. These two waves could develop into the 12th and 13th named storms of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, which thus far has been breaking records for the fastest forming named storms, beating out the horrific 2005 season that produced Katrina, Wilma, and some storms that had Greek alphabet names.

National Hurricane Center 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook.