A batch of strong showers with some rumbles of thunder is approaching the NYC area. For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, strong to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms may pass through ahead of an advancing cold front. Damaging wind gusts and small hail are the primary threats.
Otherwise, expect broken clouds to cloudy skies and nice warm afternoon in the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. A line of thunderstorms is likely to fire up again later this afternoon into the evening hours as the cold front actually approaches.
Atmospheric instability is continuing to increase as we are in the warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front. Low level lapse rates and shear profiles are marginally conducive to the growth of some strong to severe thunderstorms.
It’s been a wild weather week that started with a tornado outbreak across half a dozen states in the South, and torrential rain fall that dropped as much as 2 feet in Florida, and as much as 6-8″ across the Northeast (resulting in incredible scenes like this landslide in Baltimore).
Fortunately, the weather has taken a turn for the better and will remain that way much of the coming week. This weekend is shaping up to be a nice one with temperatures on Saturday and Sunday reaching into the upper 60s to the low 70s across the region. There is a chance on both days of popup showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially in inland areas with better daytime heating.
GFS model upper air (500mb absolute vorticity) output for this coming Wednesday. Note the strong trough out west (dip in the contour lines), and a ridge over our region (bulge towards the north of contour lines). Ridges correspond with high pressure and good weather while troughs denote low pressure and poor weather.
We’re finally turning the corner on warmer spring temperatures as the start to next week Monday-Wednesday will continue to feature high temperatures consistently in the low-mid 60s (about average). Dry and mostly sunny skies should also predominate as a ridge of high pressure (see above) builds in over our region.
Altocumulus clouds, preceded by cirrus clouds (earlier today and yesterday) are indicative of approaching frontal boundaries
Just a quick afternoon update for you all. It’s been quite a warm afternoon as warm air continues streaming into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. The frontal boundary is still quite a ways off, however, you can already see increasing cloudiness in the form of these altocumulus over the city. Some precipitation is beginning to show up over portions of western NJ. The atmosphere right over NYC is still on the dry side, with humidity recorded at LaGuardia Airport recently only at 47%, and dewpoint temperatures only 44 degrees. This should serve to limit the potential for convective activity and thunderstorms later in the day. In fact, as the area of precipitation to our west enters the region, showers may break up or scatter upon entering the relatively drier airmass.
Brilliant start to the week this Monday with comfortable and seasonable high temperatures in the low-mid 60s.
Tuesday – A cold front will rapidly approach the region from the west. Ahead of this cold front, warm, moist Gulf air will flow in, allowing for high temperatures to edge close to 70. Given the moisture content and warm temps, there is some potential for enough instability in the atmosphere to support the growth of thunderstorms later in the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could produce small hail. Thunderstorms, should they form, would be mostly limited to inland areas west of NYC as the marine layer near the coast tends to exert a stabilizing influence.
Wednesday and Thursday will be similar weather-wise with high temperatures suppressed in the upper 50s to low 60s due to the influence of strong winds from the north and northwest in the wake of the departing cold front. We should see clear and sunny skies both days. Excellent conditions for radiational cooling on both nights will allow lows to drop into the upper 30s and low 40s across the region.
The next chance for rain will be this Friday into the weekend with another cold front moving in from the middle of the country.
Sunny skies are your headline for weather this weekend. After what’s been a rudely cold interruption to spring, we’re returning to more seasonable temperatures and a calm weather pattern.
High pressure will dominate the area Saturday leading to sunny conditions with temperatures rising into the mid-upper 60s.
Sunday – high temperatures will be somewhat inhibited by onshore winds off the ocean as the high pressure center moves to our northeast and winds turn to the northeast and east.
Monday – the streak of pleasant weather continues after a cold start to the morning with highs again reaching the low 60s under sunny skies.
Next chance of precipitation will be Tuesday with a weak low pressure system and cold front moving in from the Great Lakes.
We’re going to have a splendid weekend weather-wise in the NYC region. There will be some rain later this evening and into the overnight hours, but things should dry up before sunrise Saturday. High temperatures today will be comfortable in the mid to upper 60s, with western portions of the region possibly topping 70. The south wind will tend to keep inland areas warmer than coastal portions where the wind will be bringing in colder air off the Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are still only in the 40s.
Projected radar reflectivity for about 8PM EST, when we can expect the bulk of the rain for Friday night.
Once the rain lifts out, Saturday is shaping up to be a gorgeous day, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s in NYC. Inland areas again will see even higher temperatures with highs near or above 70, while eastern portions of Long Island will see temperatures in the lower 60s due to the continuing cooling influence of southerly winds off the ocean.
Southerly winds will continue to usher in increasingly warm and moist air Sunday with high temperatures in the low 70s inland and in western portions of the region, mid-upper 60s in NYC, and cooler temperatures in the east and coastal CT.
Monday will be the warmest day of the stretch, with highs easily topping 70 area-wide, again with the exception of coastal waters in eastern Long Island and CT. Dense fog may develop overnight Sunday due to the increasingly saturated air mass moving into the area.
Tuesday will be a messy day with a strong cold front moving in from our west. Temperatures will be significantly cooler, with highs probably only in the mid-50s. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting a significant rainfall event. This sharply tilted cold front is associated with a strong low-level jet streak, which will help usher in very moist air from the Gulf.
Note the extremely meridional (north-south) orientation of air flow on Tuesday, indicating a strong frontal boundaryCheck out the swath of forecast total of 2.5″+ of rainfall Monday-Tuesday in our area!
After Tuesday, get ready for a serious cooldown, as temperatures behind this strong cold front will only be in the mid-upper 40s!
Quick update here: skies will gradually begin to clear as clouds associated with the rain storm last night move offshore. As you can see from the satellite image below, sunny skies are already entering portions of Northern NJ. Depending on the time we get under clear conditions, we could very well see high temps hit 70 except in Long Island and coastal CT, where an onshore southwest wind will keep things cooler.
Also of interest, check out the wave clouds out over Central PA! Just as objects in the path of a water can cause eddies and waves to form behind them, you can get the same effect with air flowing over mountain ranges. You can’t surf these (maybe with a glider?)
Don’t be fooled by this gorgeous weather today (seriously).
A low pressure system forming in the lee of the Rockies, along with a nearly stationary frontal boundary draping down from a low moving into Canada will result in cloudy to mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the week. There will be a chance for rain each day through Friday. The best chance for steadier rain will be late in the day Friday through Friday night and perhaps into early Saturday morning. This is associated with another area of surface low pressure and trailing cold front.
Note the frontal boundary draping across the region – this will give us a chance for showers each day Wednesday-Friday.
High temperatures will warm to near 60 Wednesday with a persistent south-southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.
Thursday – with the influence of clouds and possible showery rain, temperatures will most likely hover around the mid 50s.
Friday – rain increasingly likely throughout the day Friday with high temperatures continuing to drop to around 50.
Saturday – temperatures will warm again into the upper 50s ahead of a cold front (and with a warm front forecast to swing through), however, it will be a cloudy day with a diminishing chance of showers through the day.
Sunday – the cold front will have passed through allowing for skies to clear, but temperatures will be cooler in the low 50s with winds from the northwest.
Next shot at precipitation comes Monday night into Tuesday with a surface low tracking from the Southeastern US.
A very brief update to let you all know the storm will miss us well to the southeast. This will limit snowfall totals to less than 2″ in most areas of the NYC region tonight into Wednesday, with the possible exception of far eastern Long Island.
Thereafter, expecting a general warming trend through the end of the week. Temps will top out in the upper 50s to around 60 by the weekend, when the next frontal system approaches from our west (no more snow, thank God). More detailed forecast to come.
