The weather headline for this weekend will be bitterly cold temperatures that may have you reconsidering any plans to be outdoors during Valentine’s Day. The incoming airmass will definitely be the coldest of the year and the season thus far. The good news for us is that this Arctic airmass does not stick around for long, with temperatures expected to rebound nicely by early-mid week next week.
Rest of today – will be a preview of the cold coming our way with temperatures only topping out in the upper-20s. Scattered snow showers are possible (some of these snow showers are actually remnants of lake effect snows occurring hundreds of miles to our north and west). With west winds blowing in the 20-30mph range, wind chill will make it feel like 15-20ºF out there.
Friday – an Arctic cold front swings through overnight into Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper-teens in the city and in the low-teens further north and west. High temperatures should rest in the mid-20s with increasing cloud cover as another impulse of energy makes its way in for Saturday.
Saturday – there will be a slight chance for snow showers overnight Friday into Saturday. Low temperatures will be only in the mid-teens, and with winds expected to pick up, wind chill values will hover in the single digits. Daytime highs Saturday will struggle to break 20ºF in the city. Northwest winds 25-30mph will lead to wind chills again only in the teens. As an impulse of energy pushes through Saturday morning, there may be some scattered snow showers before skies clear and things dry out.
Sunday – overnight lows Saturday into Sunday are going to be the coldest we’ve seen all year, with a low temperature in the city forecast at a mere 2ºF! Wind chill advisories will likely be posted for this period, with widespread below zero wind chills likely. Temperatures don’t rebound much during the day Sunday, with high temperatures only in the upper-teens.
Monday (President’s Day) – this is when the recovery in temperatures begins with high temperatures expected to go back up to around freezing. The next storm system looks like it will be moving through Tuesday, but it will also be accompanied by a much warmer airmass.
Warming Up Next Week
40ºF doesn’t sound all that warm, but you’ll welcome that next week as we see a return to above normal temperatures.
We have had a very warm start to the month of February, and it sure does feel like the groundhogs were right that there will an early spring. Even if that is to be the case, we are still technically in the depths of winter, and the weather over the next couple of weeks will remind us of that fact. The end of this week and this weekend will be relatively quiet on the weather front, but looking ahead at the beginning of next week, there is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring us some more snow.
Rest of today – mostly cloudy with some breaks of sun, warm but with temperatures dropping through the 50s during the day.
Friday – the cold front that passed through yesterday will stall out at sea, but close enough to us that another impulse of low pressure moving along it could bring some light snow to southern and eastern portions of the NYC region. Light, wet, accumulating snow is possible for NYC and Long Island. Depending on the storm track, some areas of eastern Long Island could pick up 3″, while areas west closer to the city see a coating to an inch overnight. During the day Friday, temperatures will cool off noticeably into the low-40s and the winds will pick up as skies clear.
Saturday – a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-mid 40s.
Sunday – essentially a clone of Saturday in terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny, highs in the low-mid 40s.
Cooling Off the Next Couple Weeks
It is technically supposed to be the coldest stretch of the year climatologically, so it makes sense that there should be some cooler temperatures coming. In fact, Climate Prediction Center does have normal to below normal temperatures (normal would be in the mid-30s) for the area the next couple of weeks.
After a brief warmup mid-week, we return to more seasonable fall weather for the weekend. Luckily, it appears that this weekend should be rain free, providing excellent conditions for Halloween revelers, Mets fans, and NYC Marathon runners alike. It was quite a different story 3 years ago this weekend, when the city and indeed the entire region was just beginning to comprehend the scope and magnitude of the destruction wrought by a once in 500 year storm: Hurricane Sandy.
Rest of today – sunny, with a high right around average at 60ºF. It will be a chilly evening with lows in the 40s. Temperatures during game time at Citi Field should be in the low-50s.
Saturday – cooler, with highs in the mid-50s, but again with plenty of sun with high pressure in the vicinity. Temperatures for trick-or-treaters out there should again be in the low-50s range tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Weather for World Series game 4 should also be in that low-50s range.
Sunday – AM temperatures should at race time for the marathon should be hovering right around the 50ºF mark with only a light wind. High temperatures warm up into the low-60s later in the day with a warm front moving through. Temperatures won’t cool off that much during the early evening hours, so if the Mets do make it to game 5, conditions should be good for viewing the game. There is only a slight chance for showers overnight into Sunday.
Monday – clouds and sun on Monday with temperatures climbing into the low-mid 60s.
Hurricane Sandy Retrospective
Yesterday marked the 3-year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy’s landfall on the central New Jersey coast. Sandy was in many ways a uniquely devastating force of nature: as it matured, it’s size ballooned, allowing for it to push up a significant storm surge ahead of it. Unlike most mature tropical cyclones that reach the mid-latitudes, Sandy did not recurve out to sea and spare the East Coast. At these latitudes, the predominant wind patterns are from the west (the westerlies), and there’s usually a cold front that pushes tropical cyclones to the east. In Sandy’s case, a low pressure system to its northwest actually produced the opposite effect: Sandy was pulled to the northwest along the counterclockwise cyclonic flow around that low pressure system. This resulted in a historic landfall on costal New Jersey. As the forecast models came into consensus on this result, I began to fear for the worst. Because Hurricane Irene had passed the previous year with great hype, but minimal damage, I had a bad feeling that many New Yorkers would not heed the warnings about this monster storm, even though there was high confidence in an historic event about to unfold.
A monster storm
Sandy’s landfall also coincided with a supermoon high-tide, which meant that its already significant storm surge was augmented that much more by the pull of the moon. This resulted in catastrophic storm surge inundation along a vast expanse of the Northeast. The geology and bathymetry of New York Harbor made it all the more susceptible to storm surge, as its funnel shape served to channel and amplify Sandy’s storm surge. The fact that Sandy made its land fall to the south of New York meant that its most damaging northeast quadrant (Northern Hemisphere cyclones get a boost in the northeast quadrant because the direction of winds in that quadrant coincide with the direction of the Earth’s Coriolis force) hit the city dead on. A record-breaking storm tied of 14 feet was recorded at The Battery in Manhattan, smashing the previous record of 10 feet.
Scenes of utter destruction like the one below were commonplace. Over 100 deaths were recorded, with areas like Staten Island’s east coast and the Rockaways particularly badly hit. The costs of the damage ran over $60 billion dollars. To this day, many people’s lives still have not returned to normal, many are still not able to move back into their homes.
On a personal level, I was very fortunate to be in a neighborhood that was left high and dry, and crucially with power. Along with thousands of other New Yorkers, I felt an urgent and compelling need to get out on the ground and help our neighbors who were hardest hit and who had lost so much. My wife, who had just started working at a new school, found out that week that one of her coworkers had been killed – crushed by a fallen tree – during the storm. My volunteer work after the storm took me to many areas of New York City that I had not explored before. I saw witnessed scenes that I will never forget. For me, this day will always entail with it a sense of grieving, and will alway serve as a reminder to remain vigilant, because the storm that we never thought would happen here did – and could again.
If you like crisp, cool, fall weather, then this coming weekend is for you. Following a cold front moving through tonight into tomorrow, temperatures this weekend will feel more like November than October, with highs only in the low-50s on Sunday. Depending on wind conditions, this Sunday and Monday morning may see the first frosts/freezes of the season. The cooler than normal temperature trend continues into Monday, but warmer temperatures return by mid-week next week.
Rest of today – an archetypal fall day with high temperatures right around normal in the mid-60s and a clear sky.
Friday – mostly cloudy to start the day with some very small chance at rain as a cold front passes over. Once the front clears the region, skies should clear and temperatures will actually be a bit warmer in the mid-upper 60s.
Saturday – behind the cold front passing on Friday, temperatures take a plunge with gusty northwest winds flowing around an area of high pressure building to our west. High temperatures will probably not break 60ºF in the city, even cooler in the outlying suburbs.
Sunday – the airmass associated with this high pressure will likely set off the first snows of the season in parts of the Upper Midwest. Not surprisingly, this will translate to chilly temperatures Saturday night, Sunday and Monday. Lows overnight into Sunday will be in the upper-30s in the city (brrr). Frost may develop on Sunday morning in interior areas, ending the growing season. High temperatures Sunday will struggle to hit the mid-50s in the city.
Monday – basically a repeat of Sunday, same crisp, cool conditions with high temperatures in the mid-50s.
Some much needed rain is falling today, with another round of rain coming this weekend. Friday and Saturday look to be the best days out of the stretch, while Sunday has the best chances for rain. The tradeoff for this wet weather will be noticeably less humid, cooler, and more seasonable conditions to start off next week.
Rest of today – we are currently in a dry pocket which should last through the late afternoon hours. The cold front that is initiating these showers and scattered thunderstorms will be slow to move through. A low pressure center that is riding along the frontal boundary is currently parked over us, and as this low continues to move off to the northeast, additional rain is expected develop and wrap around the backside of the low. With this low and the front lingering, we will likely get another round of widespread showers with some heavy downpours possible again later this evening and into the overnight hours. With the rain and cloud cover, highs will only reach the upper-70s before dropping back down.
Friday – once the low pressure and cold front have passed, conditions should begin to improve quickly. There’s a lingering chance for showers in the morning, but by the afternoon hours skies should be clearing with high temperatures around 80.
Saturday – another cold front and low pressure will follow on the heels of today’s system. The timing of precipitation with this system appears to be trending towards late Saturday evening, and primarily overnight into Sunday. This should allow for a mostly sunny day with temperatures again around 80.
Sunday – showers appear to be likely on Sunday, with an isolated thunderstorm possible as well. High temperatures will be in the upper-70s with the clouds and rain.
Monday – once the storm system passes on Sunday, high pressure building to our southwest will allow cool, dry air from Canada to flow into the area, resulting in temperatures again in the upper-70s, but with mostly clear skies.
We have a simply splendid weekend on tap. Temperatures will be on the upward trend through the end of this week and into the weekend. The warm trend will continue into the beginning of next week, along with a return of more humid, dog days of summer type weather. Keeping an eye on the tropics, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the future of Tropical Storm Erika, which could effect the U.S. East Coast in the long term.
Rest of today – beautiful, sunny skies with high temperatures in the low-80s. High pressure to the west is firmly in control, delivering this pleasant, seasonable weather.
Friday – almost a carbon copy of today, high temperatures in the low-80s with even fewer clouds as the high pressure center will be parked right over us.
Saturday – as the high pressure from the end of the week moves offshore and weakens, a subtropical high pressure center begins to take to control. This setup favors a warmer, more humid regime. Winds will shift to the southwest and temperatures will begin to climb into the mid-upper 80s.
Sunday – a longer term trend of warm and humid weather, typical of late summer, will continue Sunday. Temperatures will again be in the upper-80s. This trend looks to continue well into next week.
Tropical Storm Erika
A tropical wave that moved offshore of West Africa late last week has tracked across the Atlantic, strengthening along the way to become the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. Tropical Storm Erika, like its predecessor Danny, is having trouble maintaining its strength due to the influence of dry air and hostile northwesterly wind shear. Due to this shear, Erika’s center of circulation is actually still somewhat exposed (see below), and displaced away from its area of heaviest thunderstorms, which is concentrated in the southeastern quadrant of the storm.
The long term prospects for the storm are highly uncertain due to a number of factors. Erika looks to be tracking over Puerto Rico and may interact with Hispaniola (bringing much needed rain), which would significantly weaken the already feeble storm. This could lead to it dissipating entirely. However, should the storm make it past this area of high wind shear and possible land interaction, it’ll end up in the very warm waters around the Bahamas. This would provide the fuel for it to intensify quickly into a hurricane which could then threaten Florida and the East Coast. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Satellite image of Erika, with exposed center of circulation circled in red
The pleasant weather we’ve had the past two days gives way to a hotter, more humid feel appropriate for August. High pressure that has been giving us this wonderful weather will be steadily moving east. Temperatures will warm and the air will moisten as winds shift to the south and southwest. We’ll likely see temperatures at or above 90ºF for the weekend.
Rest of today – clear skies with comfortable high temperatures in the low 80s.
Friday – warmer, with high temperatures rising into the mid-80s. Humidity will begin to increase.
Saturday – probably will be the warmest day of the weekend with highs at or slightly above 90ºF. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible especially inland, though unlikely at the coast.
Sunday – just a tad less hot as a weak cold front pushes through, but still sunny with high temperatures in the upper-80s.
The first half of this first full week of the summer felt very much like mid-summer, with hot, humid conditions and even some severe thunderstorms. The second half of this week, along with the weekend will feel a lot more like late spring, with Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning shaping up to be a washout.
Rest of today – pleasant, sunny skies, with a wind from the northwest, will yield comfortable high temperatures in the mid-80s.
Friday – an area of low pressure will be tracking eastward from the Midwest along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that will be positioned over southern New Jersey. The timing of this wave of low pressure will be overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Rain should end by noon Friday. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will only top out in the mid-70s.
North American Model high resolution simulated radar image for Friday at 8AM EDT
Saturday – the respite from the rain will be short-lived. Saturday morning into the early afternoon should remain rain-free, though temperatures will again be suppressed in the low-mid 70s. Another, more potent area of low pressure will make its approach from the west during the day Saturday. The precipitation shield associated with this low should begin to fill in over the area beginning in the mid-afternoon hours. Periods of showers will continue falling, with moderate to heavy rain at times, throughout the remainder of the day and overnight Saturday.
North American Model high resolution simulated radar for Saturday at 2PM EDT
Sunday – rain begins to taper off on Sunday from south to north as the center of the low pressure responsible for this storm moves to our northeast. Rain should end in the early afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-70s. Rain from last week has put a dent in drought conditions across New York state, but areas of Central upstate New York and eastern Long Island could still use this rain. The downside is that it will put a damper on many outdoor plans for the first full weekend of the summer, and the first weekend after school ends here.
Monday – conditions improve on Monday as the low pressure continues to pull away. High temperatures should remain in the mid-70s with cloud cover decreasingly steadily.
In contrast to last weekend, where Sunday was the better half, the reverse will be true this weekend. Remnants of Tropical Depression Bill will be moving over us on Sunday, bringing the potential for extended periods of showers and heavy rain. It is hoped that this much needed rain will put a dent in the persistent moderate drought conditions in the region.
Rest of today – there is a small chance for thunderstorms up until around lunchtime today, after which skies should gradually clear. High temperatures are expected to top out in the upper-80s to near 90.
Saturday – high pressure will be shifting to the east, bringing in an onshore flow, keeping temperatures cooler in the upper-70s under partly sunny skies. Chances for rain will be increasing steadily through the evening such that by the overnight hours, periods of steady rain should be the norm.
Sunday – As referenced above, remnants of Tropical Depression Bill, still carrying tropical moisture, will be moving over the region. There is still some uncertainty as to whether the areas of heaviest rain will move further south and over the ocean, however, at this point it seems likely that Sunday will feature periods of steady rain, heavy at times. Rainfall probability and rainfall totals will drop precipitously from south to north, since the storm center is expected to track to our south. We could pick up as much as 1″-1.5″ of rain over Long Island, which would be a blessing since this area is still in the grip of moderate drought conditions. With clouds and rain, high temperatures should top out around 80.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for SundayNorth American Model high resolution output for Sunday at 11AM EDT Drought coverage in New York as of this week
Monday – conditions improve following the passage of the storm on Sunday, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid-upper 80s under mostly sunny skies.
We will likely be experiencing one of the hottest days of the year so far, with temperatures expected to top out in the upper-80s and into the low-90s in a few spots this afternoon. The warm weather continues through Saturday, when an area of high pressure over eastern Canada brings us some relief from the heat. In terms of the weekend, Sunday will definitely be the better day, with cooler temperatures, but dry weather.
Rest of today – temperatures are expected to top out right around 90 in the city. Increasingly humid air will lead to an uncomfortable feeling day. There is some potential for thunderstorms, some possibly marginally severe, occurring in the afternoon hours as a cold front approaches from the north and west. The orientation of the frontal boundary and primary storm vector will align in such a way that training of storms could occur, leading to the same locations getting hit by multiple storm cells.
In addition, an air quality alert is active today, with PM2.5 particle being the primary driver in pushing the Air Quality Index into the low 100s (unhealthy for sensitive groups).
High Resolution Rapid Refresh model simulated radar composite for 4PM EDT.Air quality forecast for today
Friday – the cold front that pushes through today with some possible thunderstorms will stall just south of the area, then push back north through the area as a warm front Friday. This means we will not get any respite from the heat, with highs again expected to be in the upper-80s to near 90, and another chance at more thunderstorms. There will be more sun Friday than today, but atmospheric dynamics are not expected to be supportive of severe weather.
Saturday – the warm front that passes through Friday comes back yet again as a cold front as it gets dragged along by the low pressure center moving to the northeast. This means yet another chance for thunderstorms, and ahead of that, warm temperatures remaining in the upper-80s.
Sunday – the weather finally settles down and stabilizes as a high pressure center builds to the north in behind the cold front passing on Saturday. This should lead to cooler temperatures and sunny skies for Sunday, when temperatures are expected to be in the low-80s.
Monday – another frontal boundary will be making its approach from the west on Monday, however, the timing of its approach is such that chances for rain will be low on Monday. Temperatures should again be comfortable around 80.
